Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Decent amplification at T192, maybe this is the start of it?

Ecm started highly promising, then fell out of bed with exactions.

192 pulls the line in a tad.. 

No worries here!!!

Edited January 9, 2019 by tight isobar

[ICE COLD]

Yep not a bad T192 .

[Weathizard]

The low at 216 appears too strong but look at the ridge building behind it, I reckon this would go on to be like the gfs 240+

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The low at 216 appears too strong but look at the ridge building behind it, I reckon this would go on to be like the gfs 240+

Yep ECM T216 looks like GFS 12z T240  . ECM 24 hours earlier than gfs . 

Edited January 9, 2019 by ICE COLD

[ICE COLD]

ECM going gfs 12z route . All good in the hood .

[Froze were the Days]

Well yet again another underwhelming 12z from the ecm - no improvement from 216 to 240 with still low heights near Greenland/Iceland!

[karlos1983]

When I saw this 240 from the ECM 

I was quite shocked at the uppers...

Interesting, because I was about to say I think that it will be an outlier when we look at the ENS in just under an hour, but temp wise it probably won’t be now.Synoptically I think it still will be... shame I’ll have no way of finding out  

Edited January 9, 2019 by karlos1983

[SLEETY]

High in the SW too much influence until it decides to go AWOL I can’t see how we can get sustained cold in the UK

Next runn needs to do better ECM!

Probably another warm outlier at the end ,AGAIN!

Edited January 9, 2019 by SLEETY

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well yet again another underwhelming 12z from the ecm - no improvement from 216 to 240 with still low heights near Greenland/Iceland!

All the models have low heights over greenland at 216-240    

[ICE COLD]

Here is GFS 12z T264 

 

And here is ECM T240 

Very very similar . Obviously ecm is 24 hours quicker at bringing in that pattern but great to see there on a similar path . We all know where the gfs went after . 

Edited January 9, 2019 by ICE COLD

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

All the models have low heights over greenland at 216-240    

So GFS is the model to follow (again in FI) although it was last weeks garbage, so going by that nothing worth watching on the ecm for the next 10 days and just seeing if it's reasonably similar to what the gfs is showing?

[Vikos]

And EC is flooding N-America/Canada with cold air and plenty of low GeoPot... will be mostly cold and rainy in MidEU...

 

[ICE COLD]

Don’t know why some are moaning about the ECM . Nothing notably cold is expected until at least 12-15 days down the line and ECM only goes to day 10 . I give up in here sometimes.

[KTtom]

12 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well yet again another underwhelming 12z from the ecm - no improvement from 216 to 240 with still low heights near Greenland/Iceland!

Blasphemy! You'll be told off!

Not too  bothered by ecm, and to be honest I never have been. Gfs shaping up nicely in the all important timeframe, yes well in fi, however, so long as the ens don't flip then hopefully we will keep some traction tomorrow.

Edited January 9, 2019 by KTtom

[KTtom]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

 

Duplicated

Edited January 9, 2019 by KTtom

[Badgers01]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

So GFS is the model to follow (again in FI) although it was last weeks garbage, so going by that nothing worth watching on the ecm for the next 10 days and just seeing if it's reasonably similar to what the gfs is showing?

until we see cross model agreement on a solution to cold ,it all continues to be conjecture and a chasing shadows feel to proceedings... 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

As expected then? Was anybody on this forum expecting cold weather in the short term?

So you expect no changes to show within 7-10 days then.  So when do you expect to see changes....not cold all over us, but changes afoot?

 

BFTP

[Norrance]

Please keep to the models in this thread folks!

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

So GFS is the model to follow (again in FI) although it was last weeks garbage, so going by that nothing worth watching on the ecm for the next 10 days and just seeing if it's reasonably similar to what the gfs is showing?

Eh   no idea what you are on about  its almost identical to its last run  all models show including the ensembles that a period of a north westerly cold zonal is the form horse up till 280h ish   were there is quite a bit of support  for cold to spill into North west Europe,   Low heights over greenland will be there till that point. If you are expecting any change till then  i think you will be dissapointed.  In regard to the GFS  it is garbage in my opinion upto 144hrs were its low resolution often leads to it being out of sync with the other models   In low res it has as much chance of being right than any other if its similar at 144h

Edited January 9, 2019 by weirpig

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 12z

   

   

cfs 9 month 

[Vikos]

Looks good, though

....

[cheeky_monkey]

10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Don’t know why some are moaning about the ECM . Nothing notably cold is expected until at least 12-15 days down the line and ECM only goes to day 10 . I give up in here sometimes.

call me a cynic but its been 12-15 days down the line since mid Dec..so you can see why some people feel frustrated

[Froze were the Days]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Eh   no idea what you are on about  its almost identical to its last run  all models show including the ensembles that a period of a north westerly cold zonal is the form horse up till 280h ish   were there is quite a bit of support  for cold to spill into North west Europe,   Low heights over greenland will be there till that point. If you are expecting any change till then  i think you will be dissapointed.  In regard to the GFS  it is garbage in my opinion upto 144hrs were its low resolution often leads to it being out of sync with the other models   In low res it has as much chance of being right than any other  

Not what I heard the other day from a few on here (I think Mr Sussex included) that GFS should be banned post D10 and that's where we're currently heading on the basis of GFS/(p) being on the money...and hence no expectations from the ecm for another 10+ days going by of a so far disappointing winter but I was maybe hoping for some possible strong ridging as per 192. Maybe the mindset is being fuelled by MetO outlooks?

 

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Looks good, though

....

Yeah and this is January, that’s pretty cold. This anomaly in March would still be pretty cold. North UK still on for snow before next weekend despite all these talks of 12-15 days, I guess it depends where you live.

5-6c under average in places, that’s close to Ice days in Jan in cold NW winds.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Ali1977

[weirpig]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

Not what I heard the other day from a few on here (I think Mr Sussex included) that GFS should be banned post D10 and that's where we're currently heading on the basis of GFS/(p) being on the money...and hence no expectations from the ecm for another 10+ days going by of a so far disappointing winter but I was maybe hoping for some possible strong ridging as per 192. Maybe the mindset is being fuelled by MetO outlooks?

 

In regard to the METO  then yes  i agree maybe im being slightly swayed by there reports.  to be honest like most im just hoping for a bit of the white stuff  anything else would be a bonus.  as a footnote  the 12z para is just coming out.  Something else to discuss and have disagreements about.