Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Scotland  

Here - 

 

Sorry, not because I don’t want to post Scotland, it’s because meteociel doesn’t got that far north Take it up with them lol   

@Roger J Smith it is brutally cold in the Yukon at the moment..

Edited January 9, 2019 by karlos1983

[SMU]

9 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

By the way the CFS (yes i know) has been consistently showing a very cold setup starting with a transitory week 2 with weeks 3 & 4 very cold for much of North-western Europe including the UK.

Snip from Gav's video (a good watch):

 

 

 

 

This was my post SSW model from Novembers Winter forecast

Now looking a good match...

[Rayth]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Sorry, not because I don’t want to post Scotland, it’s because meteociel doesn’t got that far north Take it up with them lol   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1 

bookmark that you can show us Shetland  

Edited January 9, 2019 by Raythan

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Sorry, not because I don’t want to post Scotland, it’s because meteociel doesn’t got that far north Take it up with them lol   

you can get the graphs for any location in the world, here is how I do it

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php and to get the latitude and longitude of the location you want type it in here https://www.latlong.net/  

[jethro]

7 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Extreme cold has developed in Yukon territory similar to early phases of 1947 event. It is also colder than normal in most parts of the arctic islands of northern Canada. These are good building blocks because any polar northerlies will be sucking air out of those regions to feed the flow. Given that the models are now in a catch-up mode a week after the SSW event, I think we are getting into territory where the odds of the GFS being too conservative are catching up to the recent trend of it being too aggressive (in medium range to end of 16 day runs). Therefore it's legitimate to speculate that the 12z run could verify at least verbatim, which would be a great outcome, it is modified winter from 17th to about 21st then full on winter after that with one very good snowfall scenario around the 22nd-23rd. 

Torn between excited and nervous at your inclusion of 1947..... In your opinion do you see the weather here becoming as cold as 2010 or possibly colder still, and long lasting like 1947? What would need to happen for the cold to get 'locked in' for a long period of time?

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Shetland ensembles - not too shabby

Edited January 9, 2019 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Tea leaves on form there Steve....

but... Ghandi ? … Really ?

Lol it was just a joke at the time

Ive taken the liberty of modifying the GFS ENS to show what I expect for London, the GFS eastward bias will try to push the atlantic through east around 168 hence that bump upwards - I am expecting the atlantic to be pushed west of London- hence no bump...

[Mike Poole]

Well based on earlier comment that the strongest signal for cold across the model output is at about T300, quick look through the GEFS 12z at T300, I think over half are showing a cold or severe cold outlook for the UK.

Hopefully the op runs should come on board over the next few days.  

[karlos1983]

UKMO and ECM identical at D4

 

[wafjin]

31 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

By the way the CFS (yes i know) has been consistently showing a very cold setup starting with a transitory week 2 with weeks 3 & 4 very cold for much of North-western Europe including the UK.

Snip from Gav's video (a good watch):

 

 

 

 

It is a good watch but he stresses several times in the video to keep our feet firmly on the ground which is a tad unusual for Gav as he normally gets very excited at the mere whiff of snow. The plot thickens

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Time for the ECM to comprehensively crush all your hopes and dreams  

Ecm has defo had a habit of that this season!and it wouldnt surprise me if it did it again this evening...

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm has defo had a habit of that this season!and it wouldnt surprise me if it did it again this evening...

My prediction it won't do anything either way.  As I noted above the key timescale is T300 - well beyond the end of the ECM!  Best result it shows a decent direction of travel at the end, surely...

Edited January 9, 2019 by Mike Poole

[shaky]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

My prediction it won't do anything either way.  As I noted above the key timescale is T300 - well beyond the end of the ECM!  Best result it shows a direction of travel T the end, surely...

Yup defo mate totally agree!!but its pretty different to ukmo at 144 hours and not as good!!pretty different with that low exiting the states aswell!!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

ensemble NAEFS 12z link up of above average heights slightly later on which is what I was thinking from its 0z run  and some weakening of a section of the above average heights by the end but I wouldn't really class it as a downgrade probably just the fact it will be trying to firm up on dates and exact strength of blocking 

ensembles GEM 12z

 P4 gets close to a well positioned scandi high but doesn't quite do it on this run  

  

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

A very interesting chart with a low crossing NW France, this brings a risk of snow; some very heavy falls in the Irish Sea moving towards west Wales......but unfortunately it's all in FI

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yup defo mate totally agree!!but its pretty different to ukmo at 144 hours and not as good!!pretty different with that low exiting the states aswell!!

Looks similar to UKMO T144 to me, shaky:

Edit, mistakenly posted wrong chart, now corrected.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

Another flat EC?

[shaky]

Ecm 168 hours wedge startin to form!!!

[Ali1977]

Pretty cold looking chart, maybe 192 will be cold enough for something white for some. Late next week still up for grabs that’s for sure.

[Chesil View]

11 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Time for the ECM to comprehensively crush all your hopes and dreams  

How can it do that when it doesn't go out to the predicted date for the wintry weather to arrive.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Another flat EC?

That very small LP may scupper the wedge 

[Weathizard]

People really need to calm it down jumping the gun, the 144 chart doesn’t make a whole lot of difference as we are looking at day 8/9+ at least really and have been all along

[weirpig]

Pretty similar to the 0z run from the Ecm  expect cold zonal from the North west  and maybe hints of ridging at 240h    

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

People really need to calm it down jumping the gun, the 144 chart doesn’t make a whole lot of difference as we are looking at day 8/9+ at least really and have been all along

I’m still thinking some are in with a shout next Wed/Thurs, a fair few GEFS were showing this.

[Mike Poole]

Decent amplification at T192, maybe this is the start of it?