Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yesterday’s Pete, today’s is much different

 

BFTP

So it hasn't updated after all!

[Blessed Weather]

Great to have the thread buzzing this evening. But maybe a good time to give a gentle reminder - please ensure any posts you make are on topic (see the green header at the top of every page). A few posts have just been moved to the Model banter thread, so if yours is missing it will be here. Many thanks.

[Ali1977]

At 240 I'm going to say the GFS is worse than all 20 Perbs, wether it be from Cold Zonal , PM or out right Arctic blasts. 

Edited January 9, 2019 by Ali1977

[winterof79]

GFS FV3 Not a million miles off De Bilt extended i.e. brief Northerly the veering N/e/e

 

Edited January 9, 2019 by winterof79

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So it hasn't updated after all!

Yes, go to meteociel.  Flattening out in FI

 

BFTP

[Weathizard]

Best GFS means yet IMO, we just really need to get them into a reliable now. 

[Ali1977]

And for the first time next weekend has most of the east and North UK in -6c uppers. Awesome.

[lassie23]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Needless to say GFS gets the thumbs up as we see the PV separate ..very cold and snowy FI..

At long last decent eye candy from GFS!!

Thankfully the GFS is the best model

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

At 240 I'm going to say the GFS is worse than all 20 Perbs, wether it be from Cold Zonal , PM or out right Arctic blasts. 

I take it there are some stonkers because this is v good

 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Thankfully the GFS is the best model

Don’t tell S Murr that

[karlos1983]

GFS Control is another belter! The ens graph is going to look John Barrowman Fabulous! 

Edited January 9, 2019 by karlos1983

[SMU]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Thankfully the GFS is the best model

Good afternoon... Ahem ^^^^

Anyway..

The GFS mean is great @-6c 

*BUT* expect westward corrections where the reality is going to be probably be -8c

UKMO / ICON look like a good blend to me - Jet axis allignment day 8-10 could bring plenty of snow.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

I take it there are some stonkers because this is v good

 

I only meant to 240 but yes!!

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I only meant to 240 but yes!!

Ah yes must learn to digest post first...

[karlos1983]

N.England/Midlands/S.England ?

Cushty!

PS - 17/18th looking good still for a snow event somewhere. Midlands North form horse atm. Ppn spike and conducive uppers align! 

Edited January 9, 2019 by karlos1983

[Derecho]

12z swingometers provide better news, more in the way of arctic northerlies in there (some appear fleeting).

The standout for Jan 20th is P10, better then earlier output though not as many runs with sustained northern blocking. Better then nothing...

 

[bobbydog]

GFS is a mess...

A very cold mess...

And it still manages to deliver the goods

( for some reason I can't upload the precip type charts but they show copious amounts of snow...)

You know, this stuff -

uksnowrisk.webp

Edited January 9, 2019 by bobbydog

[northwestsnow]

GEFS look a stonker !!

Are we seeing a bit of momentum building?

[O'Maille80]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS look a stonker !!

Are we seeing a bit of momentum building?

Snowmentum. Sorry, couldn't resist.

[Leon1]

By the way the CFS (yes i know) has been consistently showing a very cold setup starting with a transitory week 2 with weeks 3 & 4 very cold for much of North-western Europe including the UK.

Snip from Gav's video (a good watch):

 

 

 

 

[chris55]

Signals for cold now creeping in....more runs needed, more ensembles needed, but with the recent SSW and the EC monthly anomalies things are looking good. Though at face value the op runs may well need a few more days to really see the ensuing cold pattern.

Hopefully it’ll just be a case of sitting back and watching the blizzards roll in  

[Roger J Smith]

Extreme cold has developed in Yukon territory similar to early phases of 1947 event. It is also colder than normal in most parts of the arctic islands of northern Canada. These are good building blocks because any polar northerlies will be sucking air out of those regions to feed the flow. Given that the models are now in a catch-up mode a week after the SSW event, I think we are getting into territory where the odds of the GFS being too conservative are catching up to the recent trend of it being too aggressive (in medium range to end of 16 day runs). Therefore it's legitimate to speculate that the 12z run could verify at least verbatim, which would be a great outcome, it is modified winter from 17th to about 21st then full on winter after that with one very good snowfall scenario around the 22nd-23rd. 

[Easton Luna Boys]

18 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Don’t tell S Murr that

Without getting dragged off topic, in its defence it has been more resolute this winter so far, sticking (reasonably so) to its guns in terms of not getting caught up in Walt Disney charts deep in FI. I can recall winters past where it would chop and change in manic bipolar style, but we haven't seen much of that...yet.

Perhaps it's why it has proved so unpopular with some commentators this season. 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Extreme cold has developed in Yukon territory similar to early phases of 1947 event. It is also colder than normal in most parts of the arctic islands of northern Canada. These are good building blocks because any polar northerlies will be sucking air out of those regions to feed the flow. Given that the models are now in a catch-up mode a week after the SSW event, I think we are getting into territory where the odds of the GFS being too conservative are catching up to the recent trend of it being too aggressive (in medium range to end of 16 day runs). Therefore it's legitimate to speculate that the 12z run could verify at least verbatim, which would be a great outcome, it is modified winter from 17th to about 21st then full on winter after that with one very good snowfall scenario around the 22nd-23rd. 

Nicely summed..

Id go with it all..(dates included)...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

N.England/Midlands/S.England ?

Scotland  

Here -  Edinburgh -  Glasgow -  Inverness -  

Aberdeen -  

   battleground snowfalls anyone?