Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Ali1977]

Some WAA could come into play here, possible push towards Iceland here. 

Far to close to the 06z to get exited about though!!

Edited January 9, 2019 by Ali1977

[Singularity]

 

Just a little addition of separation and suddenly the -10*C 850 hPa isotherm is reaching Scotland in a week's time.

With the greater draw-down of cold air, there's a better 'wedge' of cold air in place to disrupt the Atlantic trough with.

Shows how very sensitive the patterns become to small details when the support from above for standard zonal propagation collapses.

[ghoneym]

Check out the isobar difference for Greenland at just +24 on the models  the GFS models different from UKMO and ICON at such a close range

      

[Southender]

6 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Check out the isobar difference for Greenland at just +24 on the models  the GFS models different from UKMO and ICON at such a close range

      

Yes, pretty amazing differences really. The poor old Greenlanders wont know whether to get the kite out for a gentle fly, or bunker down and ride out a hurricane!

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Check out the isobar difference for Greenland at just +24 on the models  the GFS models different from UKMO and ICON at such a close range

      

It's very strange, no doubt due to the height above sea level of the Greenland plateau and the UK Met is programmed to show the heights without the geographical influence.

[That ECM]

Just for you northwest gfs 12z tries hard to build a wedge in the right place but fails around t240 due to much energy coming from the nw. Now reduce that a relatively small amount and it would be game on.

[Weathizard]

Tasty end to the 12z

[Mike Poole]

Whatever might show on earlier time frames in individual runs, it is around T300 that the most significant signal seems to exist, here's the GFS (T312) and the FV3 (that's still 6z as it plays catch up after yesterday's hiatus).  

Its this signal we need to see maintained and counted down to zero!

Edited January 9, 2019 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS 12z is a stonker.

EDIT : and without huge areas of blocking - frigid cold.

Edited January 9, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 12z is a stonker.

Yes very cold ? Be nice to wake up to a stonker though wouldn’t it.

If that reads wrong it wasn’t my intention 

 

 

Edited January 9, 2019 by karlos1983

[Singularity]

Unfortunate with that low bombing in from the subtropics D9-D10... fair chance it doesn't track that way in reality, but in any case, the 12z GFS has improved the consolidation of broad low heights across Siberia and as such produces more of the sliding lows type pattern that many are anticipating ahead of the proper HLB. 

Bear in mind, though, that this is without the wedges of HP that are likely not to be picked up until within at least a weeks' range; which will serve to disrupt the troughs more as they slide through - meaning cold air wrapping in better, around smaller-scale disturbances in the flow.

 

Good to see the proper tropospheric Canada-Siberia vortex split return on this run. Interesting that the 30 hPa level shows a bit more of a split in tandem with this; it implies that GFS is trying to keep the negative zonal wind anomalies in place across a wide depth of the atmosphere. That could be why it's struggled to 'flush down' the anomalies right into the troposphere in recent runs; there's not as clear a mechanism in place due to what it assumes.

[ICE COLD]

Good FI again on the gfs 12z . As @northwestsnow says wedges make sledges. 

[Easton Luna Boys]

17 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

Just a little addition of separation and suddenly the -10*C 850 hPa isotherm is reaching Scotland in a week's time.

With the greater draw-down of cold air, there's a better 'wedge' of cold air in place to disrupt the Atlantic trough with.

Shows how very sensitive the patterns become to small details when the support from above for standard zonal propagation collapses.

Or the Atlantic trough could be the disruptor - looks like colder air filtering down (for a time at least) yes, but it looks fairly slack. It isn't screaming long fetch Northerly with tight packing isobars. Will be interesting to see just how cold that air will be and how far down the UK it's effects will be felt. E.g. I wouldn't bet against 8c and sunny skies, say south of the M4 corridor!  

[Ali1977]

By thurs next week it’s getting cold, can’t see Scotland but it looks v cold even midlands north 

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

ICON running now so hoping for a good start, did you know it has 4 times the resolution than the GFS !!

I believe this is not correct for the ICON global model, are you maybe confusing it with the ICON-EU Europe only higher res model, also available on Meteociel?  Which incidentally was really poor on precipitation during the March cold spell.  The ICON global model seems to perform well but I've yet to see any verification stats for it.

[Methuselah]

Looks like the real cold is staying resolutely at T+384? Must be my imagination!

[wightwootton]

Anyone noticed the GPS(P) 6z has just rolled out. Looks great

Can not post pic , sorry

[northwestsnow]

Needless to say GFS gets the thumbs up as we see the PV separate ..very cold and snowy FI..

At long last decent eye candy from GFS!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The propensity for the semi permanent HP to SW to remain in situ continues to be a very big problem for any prolonged cold spell.  This set up is as extreme as I’ve seen.  I’m certainly underwhelmed....maybe as it’s the start of deep minima a la 2007/8 we have what we have?.

 

BFTP

[ghoneym]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I believe this is not correct for the ICON global model, are you maybe confusing it with the ICON-EU Europe only higher res model, also available on Meteociel?  Which incidentally was really poor on precipitation during the March cold spell.  The ICON global model seems to perform well but I've yet to see any verification stats for it.

DWD is ICON, this is all I could find for it having a quick scan. cmcglb & cmcreg are the GEM model

  

Edited January 9, 2019 by ghoneym

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I believe this is not correct for the ICON global model, are you maybe confusing it with the ICON-EU Europe only higher res model, also available on Meteociel?  Which incidentally was really poor on precipitation during the March cold spell.  The ICON global model seems to perform well but I've yet to see any verification stats for it.

I can’t find where I read it, may well have been the EU one

[northwestsnow]

FYI..

To add to the very good GFS FI i can report the BBC MONTHLY now going for cold!

GFS FI-

Over to EC!!

Edited January 9, 2019 by northwestsnow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Here's the back-end of it,WW: much higher pressure over Greenland:

Yesterday’s Pete, today’s is much different

 

BFTP

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

FYI..

To add to the very good GFS FI i can report the BBC MONTHLY now going for cold!

GFS FI-

Over to EC!!

GEFS first, and what I can see up to T204 looks pretty good - upgrade 850 wise on the mean by then.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Ali1977

[Eastnorthwest]

A thumbs up for gfs