Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[egret]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

So many members probably looking blankly at the screen whispering to themselves "whats a commodore 16" 

ICON trying it's best, should be a decent end to the run 

Commodore has green all over the screen if I remember correctly? I am currently looking for a screen which gives nice purple and white colours like the ICON you just posted but with some white pixels added.

[Vikos]

Yeah, nice cold punch spreading twrds to Canada @ ICON

 

 

 

[warrenb]

1 minute ago, egret said:

Commodore has green all over the screen if I remember correctly? I am currently looking for a screen which gives nice purple and white colours like the ICON you just posted but with some white pixels added.

That was a Dragon 32. Anyway, things looking good so far from ICON

[winterof79]

27 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Big changes on the Icon

Big changes ahead on the NWP......stop.....

Edited January 9, 2019 by winterof79

[karlos1983]

nice bit of early ridging on the UKMO at +96 

Door slammed shut on this occasion though as the low gains energy form the PV lobe no doubt 

Edited January 9, 2019 by karlos1983

[Summer Sun]

Interesting news coming out this afternoon a new model is launching later this year

IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model
 

Quote

 

IBM announced today that they will be introducing the world’s highest-resolution global weather forecasting model later in 2019--the IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF). The model will be the first hourly-updating weather model that is able to predict something as small as a thunderstorm virtually anywhere on the planet.

The current top global forecasting models, the European (ECMWF) model and the U.S. GFS model, subdivide the global atmosphere into grid boxes that average 9 kilometers and 13 kilometers on a side, respectively, then solve the mathematical equations of atmospheric flow to generate a forecast for each of those grid cells. The new GRAF model employs a variable-resolution grid, resembling a honeycomb, that can be configured with higher resolution over areas of particular interest (Figure 1). Over land areas, the GRAF grid elements will have average resolutions of 3 km, which is about 3 - 4 times greater than the European and GFS models.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/IBM-Introducing-Worlds-Highest-Resolution-Global-Weather-Forecasting-Model

[Ali1977]

UKMO at 144, could we get that ridge punching up to Greenland maybe, Alaskan side looks good !!

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 144, could we get that ridge punching up to Greenland maybe, Alaskan side looks good !!

Looking good for the first Northerly blast.

[shaky]

Very good ukmo this evening!!and no real mild days either!!

[warrenb]

Things pretty consistent between all the 12Z's so far up to 120.

[Easton Luna Boys]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Interesting news coming out this afternoon a new model is launching later this year

IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model
 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/IBM-Introducing-Worlds-Highest-Resolution-Global-Weather-Forecasting-Model

I don't think this place would be able to handle hourly updates. 4 times a day is bad enough as it is. 

The higher res sounds tasty. So could be game over for GFS, ECM and the like?

[SLEETY]

only one way the UKMO is heading and that’s ⛸

[Mr snowman 2018]

Anyone else nervous for the gfs 12z ?

[Midlander]

2 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Anyone else nervous for the gfs 12z ?

I’m not nervous the lack of Winter weather has drained all my emotions expecting it to be depressing for coldies.

Edited January 9, 2019 by AppleUK 123

[Ali1977]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 144, could we get that ridge punching up to Greenland maybe, Alaskan side looks good !!

GEM at 144 looks ok too

GFS not so good

UKMO looks by far the best, not liking the GFS at this point!! 

Edited January 9, 2019 by Ali1977

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GEM at 144 looks ok too

GFS not so good

Care to explain why?

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Care to explain why?

Mainly the feature in the Atlantic on the GFS , that’s pushing south so trying to get heights pushing up behind the low near Labrador looks impossible , the UKMO has already started that at 144. Also the Arctic high (more towards Alaska) looks much more likely to link with a ridge should one break through the PV!! 

Edited January 9, 2019 by Ali1977

[Weathizard]

Looks alright to me 

[ICE COLD]

Feeling chilly everywhere at T180 . Scotland looks very cold . 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Looks alright to me 

It does, NH easier to see it. Better than the 06z, but I imagine the UKMO at 168 would be far better even if the first shot is transitory.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Ali1977

[The Northern Ramper]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GEM at 144 looks ok too

GFS not so good

UKMO looks by far the best, not liking the GFS at this point!! 

Much prefer the ukmo to be on board than the Gfs with its bias for blowing anything up that goes near the Atlantic.

[mulzy]

11 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Anyone else nervous for the gfs 12z ?

No, but I am wary of what the gold standard (ECM) shows.  Let’s hope for a stellar run!

[Weathizard]

Battleground UK?

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

No, but I am wary of what the gold standard (ECM) shows.  Let’s hope for a stellar run!

More bothered about GEFS / EPS than any op at this stage.

[Light Without Heat]

Not sure if its been mentioned, but what with government shutdown in the US is the NWS still monitoring GFS data ? https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b72d311b9f08