Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[SLEETY]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Clearly not.  This AZH ‘part of the slug’ is an issue.  Concerned that things are being shunted east

 

BFTP

Depends how much you believe gfs 06z run has the NH profile anywhere near correct.I wouldn’t be putting any money on it that’s for sure,a complete mess.

[weirpig]

If anyone interested the 0z  for the Para is running    very strange 

[snowfish1]

Very underwhelming and perhaps typical of gfs at this stage couldn't be less. Inspiring if it tried. Suggests it's still getting a handle on things for now? 

Edited January 9, 2019 by snowfish1

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Yuk! Someone fly a plane over that vortex piece and drop a nuke on it!

Going to be a memorable snowy January for many parts of Europe though. Lovely big Arctic High but the PV in the wrong place.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, SLEETY said:

Depends how much you believe gfs 06z run has the NH profile anywhere near correct.I wouldn’t be putting any money on it that’s for sure,a complete mess.

Indeed ECM and UKMO to my eye not as pleasing either but as I say for me a watching brief.  None will seem to take the lead....not yet anyway.

 

BFTP

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

If anyone interested the 0z  for the Para is running    very strange 

Here's hoping for something better than the GFS 6z!

[mb018538]

I'd be expecting more runs showing a more amplified picture around the N Hem to be honest....the circulation still looks fairly flat for the most part.

[Singularity]

 

GFS consistently manifesting the tri-vortex pattern at 30 hPa now, but with the positions shifting about a lot.

However, provided the reversal has propagated down by then, the placement may not be a big deal, only the fact that the vortex has unusually far to go in order to become organised again (except at the upper levels, which is not a problem for us cold-wise).

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

If anyone interested the 0z  for the Para is running    very strange 

A good para and good ENS and I’ll discount the GFS I think!! For no real reason other than it wasn’t very good for coldies

[Lloyds32]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Going to be a memorable snowy January for many parts of Europe though. Lovely big Arctic High but the PV in the wrong place.

Indeed, just too much going on towards the tip of SE Greenland, HP too far East, the rest of Europe having a wonderful cold time. The usual theme for most winters recently.

[wafjin]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Seems the Ops are not on board yet with any proper cold before the 20th at least despite some juicy ensembles members.

The wait goes on for anything in the reliable time frame.  

Anything before 21st was always going to be a bonus anyway.

[warrenb]

As above, lets remember we are looking at a pattern that is almost 10 days away. That is a lifetime in these things and there we be huge variations at this moment in time.

[Methuselah]

I'm beginning to wonder whether the GFS is suffering from Trump's grandstanding...some kind of data issues must be evident; not to mention zero human intervention? 

[Nick F]

00z EPS clusters still on track with ridging to the west and NW and Euro troughing, but after the 21st ...

T+300

T+324

The wait for it come into the reliable timeframes continues ….

 

[bluearmy]

Eps clusters say 75/25 on the euro troughing .... the 25% a slow burner to cold. (Still Not arrived by day 15)

the fog clearing but the mist will hang around for a while 

[Weathizard]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

I'm beginning to wonder whether the GFS is suffering from Trump's grandstanding...some kind of data issues must be evident; not to mention zero human intervention? 

Next thing you’ll be telling us there’s a lack of balloon data or something The GFS very rarely picks up a signal and brings it into a reliable timeframe so I’m not too concerned really, think the outlook remains broadly the same.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps clusters say 75/25 on the euro troughing .... the 25% a slow burner to cold. (Still Not arrived by day 15)

the fog clearing but the mist will hang around for a while 

When is looking like the earliest we may have some substantially colder on those Blue, anything before the 20th? 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Next thing you’ll be telling us there’s a lack of balloon data or something The GFS very rarely picks up a signal and brings it into a reliable timeframe so I’m not too concerned really, think the outlook remains broadly the same.

Didn't mean it that way, W. But with the FV3 still stuck on yesterday's 06Z, there are clearly issues there somewhere...

[O'Maille80]

Never understand why so many get deflated by every chart that is not to their wishes. Surely the main take away from the last few days is a positive one for cold lovers trending towards a colder to cold last third of the month. That's 11 days away, no need for every chart to be a ramp from now to then just as long as it comes together in the end. 

[Summer Sun]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Didn't mean it that way, W. But with the FV3 still stuck on yesterday's 06Z, there are clearly issues there somewhere...

They've had issues with GFS P the 00z is just rolling out as we speak

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1

[Ali1977]

Good news, the GFS Op WILL be a warm outlier . Plenty of v cold options by next Sat on the ENS.

Para looking promising at day 8

Edited January 9, 2019 by Ali1977

[swfc]

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Didn't mean it that way, W. But with the FV3 still stuck on yesterday's 06Z, there are clearly issues there somewhere...

YEP IT BE "PARA GATE"!!!! Anyway still on a slow burner on the runs today so far.I cant see when the change will come atm but im sure its on its way.Imo the gfs has looked very volatile over the last 3-4 days

Edited January 9, 2019 by swfc

[ICE COLD]

The 00z para is up to T192 -

Edit - Artic high strong on this run

Edited January 9, 2019 by ICE COLD

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Good news, the GFS Op WILL be a warm outlier . Plenty of v cold options by next Sat on the ENS.

Para looking promising at day 8

I'm quite liking the Control run from around 288, perfectly feasible route!

 

Edited January 9, 2019 by karlos1983

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Good news, the GFS Op WILL be a warm outlier . Plenty of v cold options by next Sat on the ENS.

Para looking promising at day 8

An outlier 850 wise I would agree but looking at the stamps, there is a lot of ensembles that blow that low up out to our west, yesterday there was a lot more amplification around day 10-12 now there’s quite an even split, I do think the GFS is having a wobble but hopefully it is only a wobble.

Looking even further out at 300 hours I honestly can’t take any guidance, it’s a real mish mash! But I’m going to cherry pick this one...