Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Mike Poole]

So to the pub run, T192:

Decent Arctic high links to W America. Tick.

It now looks like it's when not if the Greenland ridge develops, so a question of how soon?  We will see soon.

[January Snowstorm]

Still no height rises showing up over Greenland as far as the eye can see....out to 240hrs anyway.

Yes the flow is turning cooler with hill snow for the North. Nothing unusual for mid winter though of course will feel .cold after the incredibly benign and mild last few weeks. The grass is growing here like it's mid march

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

https://meteologix.com/ie/forecast/2638879-saddleworth/ensemble/euro

Pretty good snow figures for your area too, a mean of 3cm!

(Snow depths are just for fun though, I know that! ) 

[ITSY]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So to the pub run, T192:

Decent Arctic high links to W America. Tick.

It now looks like it's when not if the Greenland ridge develops, so a question of how soon?  We will see soon.

In simple terms for newbies watching, it’s the blob of high pressure over Canada around this period that is of interest. It will exit the American seaboard at some point and, we hope, eventually advect northeastward towards or into the Greenland area. Could take 48hrs from exit or a week, if at all. Other bites will come but this represents the first one with a ready made arctic high to “lock in” a decent cold spell. 

Whether it goes anywhere is another question, but a good demonstration of what I’m talking about is here. We want the positive Canadian anomaly to gravitate westward initially towards the North Atlantic, with the resident low pressure ejecting itself south westward towards the UK. At this point the space is vacated for high pressure to amplify - see initial positive anomaly developing over Eastern Greenland. 

 

Edited January 8, 2019 by ITSY

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Pretty good snow figures for your area too, a mean of 3cm!

(Snow depths are just for fun though, I know that! ) 

Yes thats a stonker although i don't look at them, but 3cm is good given that there is still going to be a significant mild cluster with 0cm.

Edited January 8, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Banbury]

6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Still no height rises showing up over Greenland as far as the eye can see....out to 240hrs anyway.

Yes the flow is turning cooler with hill snow for the North. Nothing unusual for mid winter though of course will feel .cold after the incredibly benign and mild last few weeks. The grass is growing here like it's mid march

I did mention this yesterday , nothing consistent with regards a GH - early days though 8th Jan 

Its a slower run with regards getting cooler /colder air from the NW

One run so no need to worry 

Edited January 8, 2019 by Banbury

[Weathizard]

Struggling to see a way to cold from this, looks flat. Only one run, hopefully a rogue one. 

[January Snowstorm]

It looks more than flat. There's a raging vortex to our Northwest

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Struggling to see a way to cold from this, looks flat. Only one run, hopefully a rogue one. 

But that Artic high is much more robust  expect the vortex to melt away   ho-pefully

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Struggling to see a way to cold from this, looks flat. Only one run, hopefully a rogue one. 

Its actually cold right there at that point!!!   and one frame later -8c isn't far off Scotland.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Struggling to see a way to cold from this, looks flat. Only one run, hopefully a rogue one. 

It's not rogue,  it's just the GFS. 

[ICE COLD]

And within a few frames we get this vortex being ripped apart

[Gadje]

9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Still no height rises showing up over Greenland as far as the eye can see....out to 240hrs anyway.

Yes the flow is turning cooler with hill snow for the North. Nothing unusual for mid winter though of course will feel .cold after the incredibly benign and mild last few weeks. The grass isYgrowing here like it's mid march

Take yer eyepatch off yer eye then! After 240 is when the fun is expected to begin.

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T240:

This one looks like it has totally lost the plot.  That low in the North Atlantic, and then the lack of surface pressure contours in that horrid vortex west of Greenland. Really?

For the bin!

Edited January 8, 2019 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run T240:

This one looks like it has totally lost the plot.  That low in the North Atlantic, and then the lack of surface pressure contours in that horrid vortex west of Greenland. 

For the bin!

It might still end Ok actually.

[nick sussex]

I don’t want to pour cold water on the seemingly festive mood in here but until we see concrete changes count down then we need to be cautious .

The rampant PV lobe over ne Canada needs to weaken and displace further to the nw .

The ECM somehow manages to get the cold quite far south but I’m not impressed with how it does that and the Arctic high has weakened .

Theres a danger the EC longer range is being seen as a done deal . 

I should add shortwaves that form near Iceland won’t be picked up at this stage . That’s why when medium term outputs show the cold getting far south with a strong PV they overdo this and will correct further north .

Cold advection south can only be trusted when you have a strong block to deliver that.

Edited January 8, 2019 by nick sussex

[Daniel]

Gfsp 18z won't be comming out.

[Banbury]

5 minutes ago, Gadje said:

Take yer eyepatch off yer eye then! After 240 is when the fun is expected to begin.

Not on this run it aint , that was very obvious early doors 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I don’t want to pour cold water on the seemingly festive mood in here but until we see concrete changes count down then we need to be cautious .

The rampant PV lobe over ne Canada needs to weaken and displace further to the nw .

The ECM somehow manages to get the cold quite far south but I’m not impressed with how it does that and the Arctic high has weakened .

Theres a danger the EC longer range is being seen as a done deal . 

Oh yes, although im still reasonably optimistic, the last few GFS runs stratospherically haven't done a great deal favourable to help this happen - yes sufficiently for cold spells, not sufficiently for a stonking long lasting Greenland high.

[ICE COLD]

Well it ends well

[weirpig]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Well it ends well

another scenario being played out   this time it was around the houses.  stonking arctic high on that run though

[The Eagle]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well it ends well

Well, we'll certainly look forward to that.

[feb1991blizzard]

Notwithstanding what i have just said about the strat though, the last 2 GFS runs have shown serious longjevity and repeated episodes of the split 3 daughter vortice situation and IF verified, would probably give chances of cold spells right the way through the meteorological winter.

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well it ends well

All roads lead to Rome when a SSW is calling the shots!  That does actually look like the expected end position, consistent with many ensemble members, just looked dodgy to me earlier on!  And in that case can we really take the T384 chart seriously?   Probably not, but there will be more runs in the morning...

Edited January 8, 2019 by Mike Poole

[booferking]

FV3-GFS not available for the rest of the night hopefully back online tomorrow already it looks much better than it's older brother in the way of wild swings and better verification stats as for last GFS pub run straight for the bin night all things looking up again