Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[karlos1983]

The spreads are fairly encouraging at 240

Large spread only really in our vicinity.  

[ICE COLD]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

The spreads are fairly encouraging at 240

Large spread only really in our vicinity.  

Yes we’re always in the spread of uncertainty lol . 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

We needed that confirming Fred ?

Considering how grand and unique last year’s was....yes it was a very nice consolidation of yours and others thoughts.  To now have another that’s happened on 2nd Jan (very nicely early in winter)......the potential for #winterofdiscontent conditions to come to fruition is very tantalising.......I remember the superb Philip Eden saying in the late 80s/early 90s....as the days lengthen so the cold will strengthen.

 

BFTP

[Mike Poole]

Great output from this afternoons runs, I think.  

Disappointing not to have the FV3, because the period of real interest is just beyond the 10 day period, and the continued high resolution of that model out to day 16 would provide valuable insight into what might transpire.  It may occur to some to ask why we are suddenly paying attention to model runs at day 12, when it is usually claimed that FI is about day 6!  The unusual circumstances of a SSW!  The strat evolution is much more predictable than the weather down here, normally that is irrelevant because it is very boring up there and can look after itself.   But post SSW the main driver on our weather is the strat!  So we can check the longer range model output against what we expect from the strat warming downwelling, so have much more confidence.   Not nailed on yet, but the hammer has at least been picked up.

This mean pattern for the whole of Feb from the CFS looks very plausible to me, given current op and ensemble runs:

Arctic high link up with Pacific sector, and ridge into Greenland from our side...what's not to like?

[Frosty.]

Just catching up..love what I'm seeing from the Ecm 12z..have a feeling there's going to be plenty of stonking output to come..(for coldies)!!

[mother nature rocks]

I think it was on NYE I made a post on here that the models were going to start showin (in FI) charts of a much more wintry flavour after all the atmospheric shenanigans, and they were not going to deviate much all the way down to T0z. Well ( I’m not blowing smoke up my own you know what ) this does now seem to be coming to fruition.

Some people were saying it’s T384 and never closer, then T300 and never closer but now we seem to be getting within the 10-12 day range.

The GFS/GFS(p) and ECM all now heading in the right direction!!!

This could well be the most memorable second half to any winter most of us on here would/will have ever seen!!! 

Dust off the sledges, get ready for snow days and please share your pics in the regionals.

Many thanks, 

MNR

[damianslaw]

Keep repeating myself, but now the date has appeared as I said the models will begin to show the change to a more concerted convincing colder period just in the semi-reliable timeframe i.e. 10 days+ and I said it would come courtesy of low heights dropping down through the UK, allowing that crucial build of heights to our north, with the deep trough over scandi and deep rooted cold air, and the jet swinging way to the south on a NW-SE axis, alas the ECM is showing such a set up at this range. A slider situation - trough disruption enabling heights at long last to lock in to our north and we have a locked in colder set up.

Fully expecting the models to now run with this theme - and increasing confidence to build in the coming days of such a change, with the longer range output beginning to churn out northeasterlies. We've hit the turning point...

[Day 10]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Great output from this afternoons runs, I think.  

Disappointing not to have the FV3, because the period of real interest is just beyond the 10 day period, and the continued high resolution of that model out to day 16 would provide valuable insight into what might transpire.  It may occur to some to ask why we are suddenly paying attention to model runs at day 12, when it is usually claimed that FI is about day 6!  The unusual circumstances of a SSW!  The strat evolution is much more predictable than the weather down here, normally that is irrelevant because it is very boring up there and can look after itself.   But post SSW the main driver on our weather is the strat!  So we can check the longer range model output against what we expect from the strat warming downwelling, so have much more confidence.   Not nailed on yet, but the hammer has at least been picked up.

This mean pattern for the whole of Feb from the CFS looks very plausible to me, given current op and ensemble runs:

Arctic high link up with Pacific sector, and ridge into Greenland from our side...what's not to like?

End result, a mega Greenland high ploughing snow into the UK lasting well into March! Easy peasy 

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello Icon!!!!!

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello Icon!!!!!

More amplified and a bigger wedge north of iceland!

[Decemberof2010]

ICON 120h

[Wilxy]

ECM OP cold outliner? 

[SnowLover87]

40 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just catching up..love what I'm seeing from the Ecm 12z..have a feeling there's going to be plenty of stonking output to come..(for coldies)!!

Beastly Is On way Back.  Welcome Him with A Brutal Cold Heatt

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

ICON 120h

Yes we want the scandy lobe dropping as much energy into europe as pos to prevent the high to the sw edging back east..in the words of larry grayson..

'Shut that door'..

[feb1991blizzard]

Extended eps can't be up to much, no mention at all.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Extended eps can't be up to much, no mention at all.

Perhaps people taking a chance to catch breathe! Could be a long couple of weeks ahead Feb

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Extended eps can't be up to much, no mention at all.

Ext EPS very similar to this morning’s set.  Maybe a tad flatter in the 8-12 day range but the end destination is the same!  Mid-Atlantic heights ridging to Greenland and strong Sceuro trough.  To coin a phrase, “nothing has changed”.

Edited January 8, 2019 by mulzy

[Ice Day]

GFS follows the ICON with more amplification. 

18z  12z 

Northwest will like this!

 

Edited January 8, 2019 by Ice Day

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Extended eps can't be up to much, no mention at all.

Just finished checking and they're the best yet actually. Yet another tip of the balance towards cold. For the first time, I'd say the clearly cold synoptics members outweigh the average / mild ones, this by 23rd. Mainly towards Greenland but some Omega blocks too. 

[Derecho]

Cold uppers for early next week covering more of the UK

 00Z

18Z at the same time

[Ravelin]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

GFS follows the ICON with more amplification. 

18z  12z 

Northwest will like this!

 

I was just about to post that myself. Also a slightly stronger (1040mb) Arctic high on the 18Z compared to the 12z (1035mb).

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Just finished checking and they're the best yet actually. Yet another tip of the balance towards cold. For the first time, I'd say the clearly cold synoptics members outweigh the average / mild ones, this by 23rd. Mainly towards Greenland but some Omega blocks too. 

Yes, they've just updated on the site i use and for my location, they are indeed an upgrade - the MEAN of 51 members is struggling to 1 or 2 daytime max temps for the last few days of the run - corker!!

[ITSY]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, they've just updated on the site i use and for my location, they are indeed an upgrade - the MEAN of 51 members is struggling to 1 or 2 daytime max temps for the last few days of the run - corker!!

Feb can you provide a link? I have this missing from my evening bookmarks! 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

Feb can you provide a link? I have this missing from my evening bookmarks! 

https://meteologix.com/ie/forecast/2638879-saddleworth/ensemble/euro

[Weathizard]

Well this run looks likely it could take a bit longer, hope it’s not a party pooper!