Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is why the models have suddenly flipped to that sharp NW > SE allignment

If you are looking for sustained cold then a SSW split + follow up warmings & continual negative zonal winds are the hallmarks of LONG cold spells, * with the usual caveat that we are the SW point of the cold & could always see some milder air pushing back west *

This could be a crippling final quarter of Winter for Europe & the Balkans- 

Best

S

Fantastic post as ever Steve.  ?

Just hope we are included with Europe and were not forgotten...

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
24 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

GFS Parallel is on steroids on the 12hr run ...cold and then severe cold at the end

That one caught me out too, CM...I was just about to make a post saying how 'consistent with 06Z' it is!:wallbash:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

as i cant see the GFS 12hr Parallel  ..looking at the all the 12hr ensembles virtually all are showing major height rises spinning out of the Pacific up into Alaska and the arctic..forcing cold air out into N.America ..the further the west this push the colder it will get in Europe and the UK ..IMO looking from over here.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

ECM Mean taking its time  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
1 minute ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Awkward!!

Not talking about what your on about mate!! 

Anyhoo  really glad to see things looking up, be good to have something worth remembering this winter, like last, cold winters tend to come in clumps, it's no coincidence they tend to come during Low sun patterns. . . 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM Mean taking its time  

I’m hoping the Op was a warm outlier if it’s not a cold outlier I’ll be very pleasantly surprised!!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM Mean taking its time  

I think its the big freeze that the models are sensing is on its way!causing the systems to freeze and crash already!!expect short to medium term upgrades from tomorrow!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Looks like all pieces of the pie have come together and we finally have cross model agreement on drastic changes occuring during the last 1/3 of the month. Really interesting few months coming up after such an incredibly slow moving winter. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM Mean taking its time  

ECM mean T240 . What do we think ? Looks a bit

92BF1B3D-22E6-4646-9997-9F1AF0F54061.png

Edited by ICE COLD
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Woking
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual works for me...!
  • Location: Woking
29 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Fantastic post as ever Steve.  ?

Just hope we are included with Europe and were not forgotten...

As this all happens before March 29th, we’re in.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM mean T240 . What do we think ? Looks a bit

92BF1B3D-22E6-4646-9997-9F1AF0F54061.png

Is the mean chart of 50 ECM members really going to be much use in this situation?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM mean T240 . What do we think ? Looks a bit

92BF1B3D-22E6-4646-9997-9F1AF0F54061.png

No better than the 00z , and no where near as good as the Op or GEFS...One day we’ll get cross model agreement at the 10 day point!! Op May still have it nailed though, roughly anyway!!

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM mean T240 . What do we think ? Looks a bit

92BF1B3D-22E6-4646-9997-9F1AF0F54061.png

Digging low heights, possible wedge to north/northeast

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 12z gens-2-1-348.thumb.png.2819dcd9fd54060ca24602de90dadbba.pnggens-2-1-384.thumb.png.fed72ca9f41783bb1dfe7625036cd69f.pnggens-2-0-372.thumb.png.5a73cff1dc3afe06a916e35f6d929da0.pnggens-3-1-384.thumb.png.538ca552dd21ed5c2ce498717bcae2df.pnggens-11-3-384.thumb.png.b2834340336b9d46f33a96a259cf7760.pnggens-12-1-348.thumb.png.dcae7c8513d5042dd5a5e9965af2ebee.png   a few more in the scandi high camp starting to pop up...

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
31 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM Mean taking its time  

The graph has finally updated

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.51e3d82e8c82ff22aa25ca05a9cc5ebd.png

The mean and op are reasonably close until around the 17th before a big gap at the very end

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
22 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM mean T240 . What do we think ? Looks a bit

92BF1B3D-22E6-4646-9997-9F1AF0F54061.png

1035 Arctic high and suggestions of a sliding Atlantic low from NW to SE, showing elongation along that axis.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
6 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

1035 Arctic high and suggestions of a sliding Atlantic low from NW to SE, showing elongation along that axis.

Yep i agree  also shows perhaps the op is a few days early in its evolution compared to the other ensembles   its looks all good to me. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The graph has finally updated

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.51e3d82e8c82ff22aa25ca05a9cc5ebd.png

The mean and op are reasonably close until around the 17th before a big gap at the very end

Not unexpected Gav. Pretty much exactly the date I thought it might go off. Trend setter perhaps

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
  • Location: Wales 215m asl.
11 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

1035 Arctic high and suggestions of a sliding Atlantic low from NW to SE, showing elongation along that axis.

It looks similar to the slider we had back last December 

AVN_1_2017121000_1.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep i agree  also shows perhaps the op is a few days early in its evolution compared to the other ensembles   its looks all good to me. 

Yer I remember last Feb/March the op was a little early bringing in the cold , I think @bluearmy  mentioned this the other day . So yes nothing really changes . It’s all good in the hood

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...