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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
7 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Well it’s good timing as well. Potentially if/once this pattern hits, it could last until the end of meteorological winter. Now there’s a thought....

Timing sounds like a quicker version of 2013, and indeed some of the models are starting to really looking quite 'slidey' in the 8-15 day range which will give some a chance at snow, probably higher risk the further north you go though but each slider gives us that chance of locking into a proper cold pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do you think that there is enough of a strong downwelling and enough distance bewteen the lobes in order for a proper Greenland high to develop?  IF there is, this could be truly memorable as surely any forcing from the canadian lobe in the strat might actually result in the high toppling from Greenland to Scandi in the trop after the continent has been filled with blistering uppers.

Does it really matter where the lobes end after a split of the vortex? I mean a split is always a split it must have some effect even if minor

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Faronstream said:

Does it really matter where the lobes end after a split of the vortex? I mean a split is always a split it must have some effect even if minor

Yes. 

If the lobes end up on our side of the Hemisphere then we can end up being under very mild weather while other areas of the NH get blasted with bitter cold and snow.. 

What happens after the split/where the lobes go is almost as important as the warming itself.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Is it me or does this look primed really early!!

7F14461E-260B-4F15-ADC1-624D13AC232E.png

For a decent initial cold snap anyway, looks more west than the 00z

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Is it me or does this look primed really early!!

7F14461E-260B-4F15-ADC1-624D13AC232E.png

I must admit I was thinking the same, 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Faronstream said:

Does it really matter where the lobes end after a split of the vortex? I mean a split is always a split it must have some effect even if minor

It definitely matters, if the lobe hadn't moved to Canada and had only moved to Greenland with the other Lobe in Scandi, there would have been minimal chance of any sustained Greenland blocking, now there is a realistic shot (not guaranteed obviously)

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

I'm keeping an eye on my enemy the slug of the high. I see that the overnight run on the ECM it began trespassing over us far too much again. Hopefully this run we can be packing it's bags.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

ECH1-120 (1).gifecm12z..

Mopping up...very clean n-hem...and waa.

Pv being bullied now..

And feeling the pinch..

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

That 12z GFS is sniffing something wintry with Nly outbreaks in 10days time.

I am sure of it. 

Will it vanish in the next few runs or will it stay?

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Posted
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight
20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Northern Annular Mode - same as Arctic Oscillation (AO)

Pacific-North American (teleconnection)

Sub-tropical Jet

Circle of Death - that middle bit of the MJO plot where it isn't influencing the weather much.

(I think! Difficult to keep track of them all!)

Many thanks Mike.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

+192 looks primed and ready!

A1116C98-972B-4195-8299-8BF44348484A.thumb.png.6a8f6fe64088b623b22bc82354df9592.png

should be a decent end coming up

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Welcoming in the thin air.  

3BEDE646-B11E-4DD8-A259-47A6DE87606C.png

F38F3A52-4331-4E01-8BAC-460839AF10BB.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, booferking said:

PV should/could split Day 9..

ECH1-192.gif

less than the 00z ….. day 10 is a bit early …...

nice little wedge though and those systems have actually meandered south so the jet looks supressed already 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

That’s a great looking chart, as early as Thurs next week. It’s been creeping forward a little - Blue mentioned that earlier too I think. -10s already I to N Scotland, could be whole of UK under -8s by 240

04E90E88-FD86-4402-8FC2-9C92E39FEE79.png

Edited by Ali1977
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