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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Nice..and an evo via raws i want 2 see..

The canadian lobe morphing-and migrating with the eastern sister lobe..

As well as our pal...the pc puncher..

 

gfsnh-0-138.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Very encouraging ICON run . If we see that trend from the rest of the model runs we can start to feel that the change is gathering some momentum.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Minor changes so far, not worth getting hung up over detail really. Some good some bad. The Pacific ridge is significantly stronger which will strengthen the emerging arctic high. Equally, the low spinning out of the eastern US could prove problematic for early-onset advection towards Greenland. May be a case of delayed reward...

87EB2B38-1B96-4344-861A-D605DD851918.png

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The fact you are posting it means you have been converted

UKMO pacific blocking starting to develop @144 if you have seen it

Full update from me around 715 tonight 

Neither gfs or gfsp picked up this n American ridging into the arctic high pre day 8 which was a feature of the ecm 00z op

ukmo and icon both have it accelerated on their 12z runs and gfs 12z  looks like it might be sniffing it 

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
19 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I know the GFS(p) 6z was a stonker but correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that the new GFS? If that's so then should we give that more credence than the GFS? It's not a leading question but a genuine one as the parallel seems to get lumped with the lower end models? Or am I wrong and the GFS(p) is still being tweaked?

It was due to go live on 24th Jan but whether ( no pun intended) the government shutdown affects that I'm not sure.

What you are saying tho does make sense to me 

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Very encouraging ICON run . If we see that trend from the rest of the model runs we can start to feel that the change is gathering some momentum.

Hi, can i ask how many runs of a certain persuasion it takes in order to truly call it a trend? 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
23 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I know the GFS(p) 6z was a stonker but correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that the new GFS? If that's so then should we give that more credence than the GFS? It's not a leading question but a genuine one as the parallel seems to get lumped with the lower end models? Or am I wrong and the GFS(p) is still being tweaked?

I stopped taking the old gfs too seriously months ago - only bother with it cos it comes out before the para .... if it’s in the same place as the para day 8/9 then I take a little more note 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I stopped taking the old gfs too seriously months ago - only bother with it cos it comes out before the para .... if it’s in the same place as the para day 8/9 then I take a little more note 

I wonder which is better in the strat, as that could have big ramifications for the FI trop output now.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, wafjin said:

Hi, can i ask how many runs of a certain persuasion it takes in order to truly call it a trend? 

We need it to count down to within day 7 across all the main  outputs that go that far.

The UKMO at day 6 though is close to the ICON . The GFS is flatter  . Going by US forecasters comments the UKMO/ICON trend  is more likely to be correct .

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Everywhere on cold side of jet stream visibly better than 06z frequent showers for NW wintry over higher ground makes for much more interesting weather.

23495D22-8DDE-4A48-957F-699EE6A1F3E7.thumb.png.7fe409b67481a653e3715ff4b17463f2.png485F5FA7-D01E-4C75-A1FB-E2B0416C4FB9.thumb.png.0f019f950939d6b206ac744987565acf.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Ha GFS is a comedian at times. The variation in output for Canada alone demonstrates the lack of grasp any of the models have over what is going on. Compare t198 with this mornings t204. Gonna be a few days yet before the mid term becomes clear in my view 

 

 

19832478-5A6D-4143-B186-F32B20D6AEE1.jpeg

C422F2EF-D0E5-4879-AA23-5F9E6D44F098.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
33 minutes ago, weirpig said:

UKMO 144 hr  similar to the icon with the 1045 Arctic high

 

UN144-21.gif

Yes not bad. Nice to see GFS and UKMO building a stronger Arctic high. Ultimately the hope is that we can eventually link up with an Atlantic ridge and lock a cold pattern in.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

This looks pretty cold, and FI is gonna be great I reckon

6EF60596-3158-45DB-BF6E-9D2B9CC9707D.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

This looks pretty cold, and FI is gonna be great I reckon

6EF60596-3158-45DB-BF6E-9D2B9CC9707D.png

Aye I would agree here. Painful getting to this point but the right pieces are in the right places at last. A clearly split TPV certainly helps

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This looks pretty cold, and FI is gonna be great I reckon

6EF60596-3158-45DB-BF6E-9D2B9CC9707D.png

Single figure temps for most though it's not a desperately cold chart

gfs-1-234.thumb.png.2ecb63cbc19c7239266d8f09ed3edfd6.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

Ah yes - one of those small but significant wedges of high pressure doing just enough to disrupt the Atlantic trough and prevent it just marching on in.

It's a sensible notion, given what's at play; the main reversal anomalies may land sometime 19th-22nd, but localised anomalies could make it down a bit sooner.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Single figure temps for most though it's not a desperately cold chart

gfs-1-234.thumb.png.2ecb63cbc19c7239266d8f09ed3edfd6.png

This is, although not sure forecasting that would be easy - plenty of snow around though 

6C32FA70-7EDF-456D-88F3-7D396E0919B9.png

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