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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
1 hour ago, weirpig said:

You keep digging these maps out.  Looks like the week of the 21st   is were the fun lies   keep them coming 

They were also posted by a senior operational METO man on twitter. I guess they can post freely some ECM stuff sometimes!!

 

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
3 hours ago, Spah1 said:

Just reading the Strat thread (and the snails pace of the the trop response to the SSW) and the MO update looks like we will have to wait until post Jan 25th for any HLB now. 

If Feb delivers the cold weather most want it will be worth the wait.

Funny, because the Met Office outlooks have actually brought the colder conditions forward....

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
49 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Just for Fun   lol

image.thumb.png.455d411618c308d172b763fd8af18c31.png

As a snow starved SEer I’m happy to be in the middle of the little orange blob!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Outrageous run, FV3 at T360:

gfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.df18ba8153b174c65d858ab18fc3dad2.pnggfsnh-1-360.thumb.png.29d771ac0842d4992964e153ddfa46a6.png

If this is the models now starting to latch on to the trop response to the SSW, we could see all sorts of crazy runs.  Something has shifted in the FI model output today.  Liking it.

Not the first time it's churned that polar field outcome1079979265_tempresult_qmt0.gif.908ecea6ffcb8cef2c12df457d15db24(1).thumb.gif.13c1f60d6cb732fa4fdad0d081a7c860.gif

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
43 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

They were also posted by a senior operational METO man on twitter. I guess they can post freely some ECM stuff sometimes!!

 

I know for a fact that Marco sometimes writes the 30 dayer on the Met Office website.

Edited by Johnp
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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Shame it’s all still in La La Land otherwise I would be more optimistic but if the trend continues then it’s game on! 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
32 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

My goodness it's January the 8th of January...

that was a great watch that DR climatologist they had on seemed very confident a change to colder weather was on the way and the map they showed was interesting regarding high and low pressure anomalies for later in the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 hour ago, coldie said:

Here is the YouTube link  

 

About as clear as their 30 day outlooks...possibly colder periods increase but possible mild interludes with no idea if they'll be any similarites to end of Feb 2018 the last SSW which to be honest is fair enough.

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

About as clear as their 30 day outlooks...possibly colder periods increase but possible mild interludes with no idea if they'll be any similarites to end of Feb 2018 the last SSW which to be honest is fair enough.

Their model is showing the strat in trouble for a while 

 

 

5F6F8A59-FE00-4124-B153-36BDECCDC30F.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, IanT said:

“...rock solid...”?

Whilst I understand and support the sentiment behind your post, I think “...rock solid...” is WAY too strong a phrase for UK weather that is still 12 days away...!

Rock solid refers to the extended ens output from all three main global models 

like I said .... we should be looking for things in the modelling that could prevent the cold from arriving 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The main interest was the confirmation that the SSW is as great as last year and it’s 5 weeks earlier.  

 

BFTP

We needed that confirming Fred ?

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The main interest was the confirmation that the SSW is as great as last year and it’s 5 weeks earlier.  

 

BFTP

True but as well all know the down welling isn't the same and trop response is more delayed but could last over several weeks or months as they possibly alluded to...so maybe hints of 2013 over again?

 

Edited by Team Jo
Snipped the misogyny out.
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

No they havn't.

Still last week of Jan which is 25th onwards.

It is better for next week than it was, a few mentions of snow now. Anyway, with that I expect another good set of 12z with plenty of interest again starting about next Wed. 

Hopefully this colder spell starting to show in the final frame of the ECM too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gloucester
  • Weather Preferences: Snow that settles then freezes!
  • Location: Gloucester
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:
2 hours ago, Altostratus said:

Dangerous cold over NE America. -30C 850hPa isotherm almost touching NYC!

 

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Outrageous run, FV3 at T360:

gfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.df18ba8153b174c65d858ab18fc3dad2.pnggfsnh-1-360.thumb.png.29d771ac0842d4992964e153ddfa46a6.png

If this is the models now starting to latch on to the trop response to the SSW, we could see all sorts of crazy runs.  Something has shifted in the FI model output today.  Liking it.

I’m off to NYC on 21/1 for 6 nights!

 

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Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border

Liking the look of wk 3 & 4 in these anomaly charts❄ 

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