Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Storme said:

I don't understand these models very much but am learning from reading these threads. I don't want to take the thread off track by asking too many questions.

Last winter I was in Surrey and the Beast gave us nothing but a sprinkling. I have moved to the East Midlands. From what I am interpreting, and I am probably wrong, but am I still in the wrong area for possible snow? Is it more westerly?

No one knows .........

[Weathizard]

Will certainly be interesting to see if we can count this down to t0, it’s very rare that we can count down exact sypnotics from GFS FI to day zero, I feel like DEC 2010 was counted down very successfully and predicted well far out by the METO, but it doesn’t happen often.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Storme said:

I don't understand these models very much but am learning from reading these threads. I don't want to take the thread off track by asking too many questions.

Last winter I was in Surrey and the Beast gave us nothing but a sprinkling. I have moved to the East Midlands. From what I am interpreting, and I am probably wrong, but am I still in the wrong area for possible snow? Is it more westerly?

East Midlands is a pretty good place to be in any set up conducive of snow. A good place in NW flows , Beasts, and when warm fronts hit cold air

[Mike Poole]

Outrageous run, FV3 at T360:

If this is the models now starting to latch on to the trop response to the SSW, we could see all sorts of crazy runs.  Something has shifted in the FI model output today.  Liking it.

Edited January 8, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Ensembles beginning to look particularly interesting for Scotland after a very poor winter so far despite promising cold early doors. Liking those snow probabilities 

Showing the chances next Wednesday in the snow rows up to 75%.

[Storme]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

East Midlands is a pretty good place to be in any set up conducive of snow. A good place in NW flows , Beasts, and when warm fronts hit cold air

Thank you. Sorry if I sound a bit dumb but trying to learn.

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Outrageous run, FV3 at T360:

Tbh-mike that pc puncher-and other given synops...madly enough this could become a feasible prog !!!!

 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Storme said:

Thank you. Sorry if I sound a bit dumb but trying to learn.

Pal-its never dumb 2 ask..its dumb 2 assume...and be sarcastic etc...

The more ya ask the more ya bask!!!

[Sweatyman]

looks goood too..

[Altostratus]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Outrageous run, FV3 at T360:

Dangerous cold over NE America. -30C 850hPa isotherm almost touching NYC!

[johnholmes]

4 minutes ago, Storme said:

Thank you. Sorry if I sound a bit dumb but trying to learn.

Don't be afraid to ask any questions, that is how everyone learns. Remember you can also pm a member you think may be able to answer a question you have. I'm happy to chat weather anytime so please do not be afraid to ask.

[johnholmes]

9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Will certainly be interesting to see if we can count this down to t0, it’s very rare that we can count down exact sypnotics from GFS FI to day zero, I feel like DEC 2010 was counted down very successfully and predicted well far out by the METO, but it doesn’t happen often.

Based on 14+ years of watching various versions of GFS I would say well under 10% but no doubt fun to track.

[Storme]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Don't be afraid to ask any questions, that is how everyone learns. Remember you can also pm a member you think may be able to answer a question you have. I'm happy to chat weather anytime so please do not be afraid to ask.

Thank you.

[karlos1983]

Just now, Storme said:

Thank you.

Everydays a school day in here! Not a day goes by I don’t learn something asking is the only way  

[Chris K]

42 minutes ago, IDO said:

Something like 19 is my preference:

 

Really enjoy these gifs, as it shows how quickly the fluid dynamics of various levels of the atmosphere can change over a period of time.

[weirpig]

7 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

looks goood too..

You keep digging these maps out.  Looks like the week of the 21st   is were the fun lies   keep them coming 

[Chesil View]

17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Outrageous run, FV3 at T360:

If this is the models now starting to latch on to the trop response to the SSW, we could see all sorts of crazy runs.  Something has shifted in the FI model output today.  Liking it.

Indeed that is a sensational rum from the 20th onwards

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Because you were adamant a severe cold spell was imminent,then next day you change the story.The ec46 is not probably the best  tool to use anyway,it’s forecasting accuracy at the time scale it is used for is never going to  be particularly accurate as has been proven in the past countless times.I wouldn’t be hanging off the chance of a severe cold spell of weather just using the ec46 as you appeared to be doing last night.

Errrrrr March 2018.... spot on! Weeks out 

come on people, keep it friendly on the cusp of something potentially very wintry ? we should all be in our element, if a little cautious!

Edited January 8, 2019 by karlos1983

[weirpig]

Just for Fun   lol

[fromey]

The Metoffice are doing a live feed @ 1pm on Twitter discussing the increasing chance of cold, beast from the east Etc Etc, might be interesting to watch and see what they have to say, straight from the horses mouth if you were.

[coldie]

4 minutes ago, fromey said:

The Metoffice are doing a live feed @ 1pm on Twitter discussing the increasing chance of cold, beast from the east Etc Etc, might be interesting to watch and see what they have to say, straight from the horses mouth if you were.

Here is the YouTube link  

 

[Methuselah]

Well the FV3 is certainly showing what we want it to show:

And that's some Greenland anticyclone, too...the signals going but one way!

Edited January 8, 2019 by Ed Stone

[bluearmy]

26 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Because you were adamant a severe cold spell was imminent,then next day you change the story.The ec46 is not probably the best  tool to use anyway,it’s forecasting accuracy at the time scale it is used for is never going to  be particularly accurate as has been proven in the past countless times.I wouldn’t be hanging off the chance of a severe cold spell of weather just using the ec46 as you appeared to be doing last night.

Maybe dig out my post from Sunday pm

IF this lands week beginning 21/1 then the 46 will have done a very impressive job from more than a month out 

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Maybe dig out my post from Sunday pm

IF this lands week beginning 21/1 then the 46 will have done a very impressive job from more than a month out 

And if it doesn’t land then you  can never use the EC46 as a weather prediction tool ever again,it’s credbility will be shot , as the amount of time this winter it’s been predicting this scenario to happen has felt like months,fingers crossed then

[londonblizzard]

Great GEFS T850 london average of -7 for 23rd Jan. That's the best yet