Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Cuban Zebra]

17 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

What a bizzare Atlantic profile this is

I was going to say the same! Looks like it loses the plot along the way and just gives up in the end!!!

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Does the gfs need a software update or something because it’s churning out synoptic garbage at the moment,little ares of low pressure moving about all over the place lol

they  might us well let a bunch of kids use a computer to show what they think the NH will look like,probably be more accurate than gfs at the moment!

7

It's getting one later this month I believe the current GFS P will take over

[IDO]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Good luck if you think this gfs run will verify,you think ?

Of course, it won't verify!

We are looking for trends, not only the op, but in the ensembles. As we get past D12 expect the usual bias from the op.  

Of course, whether the UK gets lucky is another question? Looking at this run substantial cold to our east and its a miss:

With improvements that severe snow and cold may get a bit nearer...

 

[Methuselah]

What a difference a day makes, eh? The second the GFS spews out a run that doesn't entirely reflect what's hoped-for, the old chestnuts appear: synoptic garbage, model bias, needs an upgrade...

Come on, folks - it's one run!

Edited January 8, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Of course, it won't verify!

We are looking for trends, not only the op, but in the ensembles. As we get past D12 expect the usual bias from the op.  

Of course, whether the UK gets lucky is another question? Looking at this run substantial cold to our east and its a miss:

With improvements that severe snow and cold may get a bit nearer...

 

Hi IDO, I'm curious why you mention day 12 as being a crucial date for when model bias becomes apparent, I think it is often apparent much earlier. Penny for your thoughts on this.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

What a difference a day makes, eh? The second the GFS spews out a run that doesn't entirely reflect what's hoped-for, the old chestnuts appear: synoptic garbage, mode bias, needs an upgrade...

Come on, folks - it's one run!

Knees and jerks may seem closer than they appear 

I think people to to accept that none of the models are just going to latch on to the overwhelming signal that we saw from last nights EC46, even if they do, wild swings are likely 

[feb1991blizzard]

Not impressed with the strat on recent runs.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Clusters will hopefully update - the uppper pattern much easier to assess on those 

Updated a short while ago: cluster 1 looking increasingly tasty - a good block starting to emerge to our W and possibly NW. Very encouraging to see euro trough showing its head on both main clusters. 

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2019/01/08/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010800_360.png

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

Of course, it won't verify!

We are looking for trends, not only the op, but in the ensembles. As we get past D12 expect the usual bias from the op.  

Of course, whether the UK gets lucky is another question? Looking at this run substantial cold to our east and its a miss:

With improvements that severe snow and cold may get a bit nearer...

 

I had a good laugh following that run. Everytime the cold air got tantalisingly close from the North or North East, the GFS OP contrived away of keeping it at bay. Given the positivity so far today, this run brings us back down to earth and shows how things can go wrong. Still, it's only the GFS.

Edited January 8, 2019 by mountain shadow

[IDO]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Hi IDO, I'm curious why you mention day 12 as being a crucial date for when model bias becomes apparent, I think it is often apparent much earlier. Penny for your thoughts on this.

Hi. After years of watching the GFS op I have noted that after D12 it resorts to its bias as if it could not be bothered to make an effort for the rest of the run. But I agree its bias is evident before then, though the D10 verification stats suggest it performs relatively close to the ECM. If they went out to D15 I would expect the differential to widen with time!

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not impressed with the strat on recent runs.

Not sure why, the PV remains in tatters on most, the issue is with how the strat is currently not imprinting favourably on the troposphere for us with the maintaining of the purple monster around Greenland.

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not impressed with the strat on recent runs.

hmm but last night you were saying a big freeze was imminent later on in the month as the ec46 computer model was looking mega for cold,and each week it was looking colder and colder on their.

So why you ignoring that 24 hours later? ,this place sometimes is so confusing  

[bluearmy]

Clusters updated 

gone is the dropping arctic upper node in as far as we can see

the mid Atlantic growing ridge is now 75% in the extended 

40% that it stays in situ and 35% that it slowly progresses east and delivers a shorter cold snap rather than the spell that the largest cluster brings as the ridge collapses a bit to allow the flow to head through the ridge which will then reset thereafter. The third cluster is a slow burner into the expected pattern with the jet becoming more nw/set over time 

perhaps enough doubt there to keep the caveats re onset of proper cold re Exeter later 

All good imo

 

Edited January 8, 2019 by bluearmy

[Ali1977]

Maybe not on the Op but again the GEFS look pretty tasty next Wednesday. 

The mean shows this well.

Edit - in fact we have a big upgrade for later next week on this suite - against the op.

A couple developing lows over Portugal

Edited January 8, 2019 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

hmm but last night you were saying a big freeze was imminent later on in the month as the ec46 computer model was looking mega for cold,and each week it was looking colder and colder on their.

So why you ignoring that 24 hours later? ,this place sometimes is so confusing  

There have been 2 GFS runs and one berlin update (yesterdays ECM), just commenting that the last great strat downwelling run (we dont see the full ec46) was the 6z GFS yesterday, also was just commenting that the EC46 was a stonker last night, what do you want me to do other than comment on the output?  

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not impressed with the strat on recent runs.

Stop flapping feb!

look how long it’s taking for the strat to imprint in the trop ... the forecast ten days from now is still split .... why do you think that when the spv does reform, it will suddenly propagate at speed ??

given that any restrengthening will happen at a time when it is traditionally beginning to weaken, I’m not overly fussed about it 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There have been 2 GFS runs and one berlin update (yesterdays ECM), just commenting that the last great strat downwelling run (we dont see the full ec46) was the 6z GFS yesterday, also was just commenting that the EC46 was a stonker last night, what do you want me to do other than comment on the output?  

The gfsp was probably much better ..... and remember we aren’t really looking at any sustained large scale HLB away from the high arctic within the next two weeks ??? 

Edited January 8, 2019 by bluearmy

[IDO]

We can see on the GEFS, now at D10, the cluster of Atlantic Ridge, which manifested yesterday as a possible early upgrade:

This, of course, may be a false dawn, but cannot discount as a possible outcome.

[Weathizard]

[tight isobar]

Some should get 'a rapid opp@ specsavers' !!!

Has no1 even bothered having a deco at these!??..

Lets see where the updated 6z ones go ??!!.

(The best iv'e seen in a merry while !!!!!

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

We can see on the GEFS, now at D10, the cluster of Atlantic Ridge, which manifested yesterday as a possible early upgrade:

This, of course, may be a false dawn, but cannot discount as a possible outcome.

Day 11 means are really good.

Many BOOOOOOM charts by next Fri. Need 12zs to jump on board 

Edited January 8, 2019 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gfsp was probably much better ..... and remember we aren’t really looking at any sustained large scale HLB away from the high arctic within the next two weeks ??? 

Not flapping, still stand by my prediction, just commenting that we want the split to be as wide and maintained for as long as possible and that recent runs haven't been as good as this time yesterday, plus surely our ultimate goal is a Dec 18th 2010 style Greenland high but then toppling to scandi and saying hello to the -17c isotherm slamming all the way into Ireland??

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

 

(The best iv'e seen in a merry while !!!!!

 

Yes - absolute stonkers those.

[frosty ground]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Not flapping, still stand by my prediction, just commenting that we want the split to be as wide and maintained for as long as possible and that recent runs haven't been as good as this time yesterday, plus surely our ultimate goal is a Dec 18th 2010 style Greenland high but then toppling to scandi and saying hello to the -17c isotherm slamming all the way into Ireland??

I'd get in the Moans thread right now and get it out of your system, because i don't see that happening. 

 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Some should get 'a rapid opp@ specsavers' !!!

Has no1 even bothered having a deco at these!??..

Lets see where the updated 6z ones go ??!!.

(The best iv'e seen in a merry while !!!!!

Nice ensembles, TI...But can I ask you one question, please: what is a 'deco'?