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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Reposted from the closed thread

The ECM anomaly for Feb is interesting as it has below average temps quite widely for the UK and Ireland it also has above average precipitation

Seasonal-Anomalies-Rain-20190101-m2.pngSeasonal-Anomalies-T2m-20190101-m2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
55 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Reposted from the closed thread

The ECM anomaly for Feb is interesting as it has below average temps quite widely for the UK and Ireland it also has above average precipitation

Seasonal-Anomalies-Rain-20190101-m2.pngSeasonal-Anomalies-T2m-20190101-m2.png

This bodes very well for the southern half especially. I’d think the cold signal wanes by the end of Feb hence the “no clear signal” as a month, but if all that precip falls at the beginning..... bingo! if not.... darn and Blast

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Reposted from the closed thread

The ECM anomaly for Feb is interesting as it has below average temps quite widely for the UK and Ireland it also has above average precipitation

Seasonal-Anomalies-Rain-20190101-m2.pngSeasonal-Anomalies-T2m-20190101-m2.png

Those charts scream battleground snow events and sliders.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

I’d bank this one cold air in place sliding lows and all still in winter ? 

770FE185-E48A-4C07-8F01-46EAC19B1341.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Things are starting to fall into place then perhaps as we look towards the last third of January. A good days model watching followed up by this ❄️⛄

good find @Sweatyman

3C37423E-15FD-4A04-BC76-34D1E1F9904C.thumb.jpeg.4a48a90153e25f86c29f2087e343a47b.jpeg929C3F0C-0E78-487E-A812-747130054566.thumb.jpeg.e733ab01266434ab073ddb5fdc50083f.jpeg

love to see the pressure map that goes with that negative temperature map..Guessing high pressure over salvard region with bitter North Easterlies sweeping down straight over U.K.Interesting!

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Things are starting to fall into place then perhaps as we look towards the last third of January. A good days model watching followed up by this ❄️⛄

good find @Sweatyman

3C37423E-15FD-4A04-BC76-34D1E1F9904C.thumb.jpeg.4a48a90153e25f86c29f2087e343a47b.jpeg929C3F0C-0E78-487E-A812-747130054566.thumb.jpeg.e733ab01266434ab073ddb5fdc50083f.jpeg

Is this derived from the EC 46 dayer ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, shotski said:

Is this derived from the EC 46 dayer ? 

“It's the abridged version that Hungarian Met publish ahead of full suite.”

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean / postage stamps  to me screams predominantly cold zonality beyond this week with a lot of snow for the scottish mountains but also a risk of snow for many..at times...following all the benign garbage so far this winter, a chance of some proper wintry conditions further ahead, especially with elevation and further north.

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

“It's the abridged version that Hungarian Met publish ahead of full suite.”

 

Ah that makes sense, the last monthly I saw was initiated on 3rd Jan. 

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
5 minutes ago, Northumberland snowman said:

Not a bad set of ensembles, the trend is good for colder weather.

Screenshot_20190107-202732_Samsung Internet.jpg

The trend is our friend as they say. Let’s hope the dominoes are starting to fall in our favour. Interesting times ahead me thinks. ??

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Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m

Just incase anyone wants to compare models with the 1963 model of around a similar date. 

Could it be possible??? 

 

 

E73E5E35-F824-4D64-94AE-FCF568EDFC93.png

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening. the Reset Button has been pressed....

in charge.png

in chargex.png

_72101192_porthcawl.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Upgrades on the ICON even at T120 from a NH perspective,  stronger well defined Arctic high and less messy in the Greenland area, purples shoved over to the Scandi side.

18z first, then 12z at same time

image.thumb.jpg.d69bf1bca0e9ec42f0a9f8b305865959.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3fc60cca72526e7697ca4db5558717d4.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Upgrades on the ICON even at T120 from a NH perspective,  stronger well defined Arctic high and less messy in the Greenland area, purples shoved over to the Scandi side.

18z first, then 12z at same time

image.thumb.jpg.d69bf1bca0e9ec42f0a9f8b305865959.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3fc60cca72526e7697ca4db5558717d4.jpg

If I was being picky, I'd say the deeper purples have been drained away from the Canadian and Alaskan areas as opposed the Greenland area. Maybe a predisposition to a West based NAO would be the result?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
31 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

If I was being picky, I'd say the deeper purples have been drained away from the Canadian and Alaskan areas as opposed the Greenland area. Maybe a predisposition to a West based NAO would be the result?

Surely hope not!  ☠️ But this timescale is before the havoc from the SSW gets wreaked, so all up for grabs after that, but I thought this run gets our chess pieces in a better position before that happens?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The Icelandic site hasn't been nibbled at for a couple of days so i can't see us getting any help from them in an hour, never mind in 7 minutes time.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The Icelandic site hasn't been nibbled at for a couple of days so i can't see us getting any help from them in an hour, never mind in 7 minutes time.

Is it the EC46 update tonight feb ?? 

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