Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Reposted from the closed thread

The ECM anomaly for Feb is interesting as it has below average temps quite widely for the UK and Ireland it also has above average precipitation

Seasonal-Anomalies-Rain-20190101-m2.pngSeasonal-Anomalies-T2m-20190101-m2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Reposted from the closed thread

The ECM anomaly for Feb is interesting as it has below average temps quite widely for the UK and Ireland it also has above average precipitation

Seasonal-Anomalies-Rain-20190101-m2.pngSeasonal-Anomalies-T2m-20190101-m2.png

This bodes very well for the southern half especially. I’d think the cold signal wanes by the end of Feb hence the “no clear signal” as a month, but if all that precip falls at the beginning..... bingo! if not.... darn and Blast 😜

 

Edited by karlos1983

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Reposted from the closed thread

The ECM anomaly for Feb is interesting as it has below average temps quite widely for the UK and Ireland it also has above average precipitation

Seasonal-Anomalies-Rain-20190101-m2.pngSeasonal-Anomalies-T2m-20190101-m2.png

Those charts scream battleground snow events and sliders.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Those charts scream battleground snow events and sliders.

Agreed. Very Feb 1947 them anomalies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Things are starting to fall into place then perhaps as we look towards the last third of January. A good days model watching followed up by this 👍❄️⛄

good find @Sweatyman 👍

3C37423E-15FD-4A04-BC76-34D1E1F9904C.thumb.jpeg.4a48a90153e25f86c29f2087e343a47b.jpeg929C3F0C-0E78-487E-A812-747130054566.thumb.jpeg.e733ab01266434ab073ddb5fdc50083f.jpeg

love to see the pressure map that goes with that negative temperature map..Guessing high pressure over salvard region with bitter North Easterlies sweeping down straight over U.K.Interesting!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Things are starting to fall into place then perhaps as we look towards the last third of January. A good days model watching followed up by this 👍❄️⛄

good find @Sweatyman 👍

3C37423E-15FD-4A04-BC76-34D1E1F9904C.thumb.jpeg.4a48a90153e25f86c29f2087e343a47b.jpeg929C3F0C-0E78-487E-A812-747130054566.thumb.jpeg.e733ab01266434ab073ddb5fdc50083f.jpeg

Is this derived from the EC 46 dayer ? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, shotski said:

Is this derived from the EC 46 dayer ? 

“It's the abridged version that Hungarian Met publish ahead of full suite.”

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean / postage stamps  to me screams predominantly cold zonality beyond this week with a lot of snow for the scottish mountains but also a risk of snow for many..at times...following all the benign garbage so far this winter, a chance of some proper wintry conditions further ahead, especially with elevation and further north.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

“It's the abridged version that Hungarian Met publish ahead of full suite.”

 

Ah that makes sense, the last monthly I saw was initiated on 3rd Jan. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Northumberland snowman said:

Not a bad set of ensembles, the trend is good for colder weather.

Screenshot_20190107-202732_Samsung Internet.jpg

The trend is our friend as they say. Let’s hope the dominoes are starting to fall in our favour. Interesting times ahead me thinks. 🥶🥶

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just incase anyone wants to compare models with the 1963 model of around a similar date. 

Could it be possible??? 

 

 

E73E5E35-F824-4D64-94AE-FCF568EDFC93.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Evening. the Reset Button has been pressed....

in charge.png

in chargex.png

_72101192_porthcawl.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Upgrades on the ICON even at T120 from a NH perspective,  stronger well defined Arctic high and less messy in the Greenland area, purples shoved over to the Scandi side.

18z first, then 12z at same time

image.thumb.jpg.d69bf1bca0e9ec42f0a9f8b305865959.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3fc60cca72526e7697ca4db5558717d4.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Upgrades on the ICON even at T120 from a NH perspective,  stronger well defined Arctic high and less messy in the Greenland area, purples shoved over to the Scandi side.

18z first, then 12z at same time

image.thumb.jpg.d69bf1bca0e9ec42f0a9f8b305865959.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3fc60cca72526e7697ca4db5558717d4.jpg

If I was being picky, I'd say the deeper purples have been drained away from the Canadian and Alaskan areas as opposed the Greenland area. Maybe a predisposition to a West based NAO would be the result?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

If I was being picky, I'd say the deeper purples have been drained away from the Canadian and Alaskan areas as opposed the Greenland area. Maybe a predisposition to a West based NAO would be the result?

Surely hope not!  ☠️ But this timescale is before the havoc from the SSW gets wreaked, so all up for grabs after that, but I thought this run gets our chess pieces in a better position before that happens?

Edited by Mike Poole

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Icelandic site hasn't been nibbled at for a couple of days so i can't see us getting any help from them in an hour, never mind in 7 minutes time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The Icelandic site hasn't been nibbled at for a couple of days so i can't see us getting any help from them in an hour, never mind in 7 minutes time.

Is it the EC46 update tonight feb ?? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...