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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

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Horrible GFS 18, wet and stormy next weekend and most of next week :( we just had Erik, it's not November for crying out loud!

Really frustrating weather at the moment and the outlook is dire. Honestly couldn't think of a worse way for February to continue. 

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3 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

@ciel - that's quite some snow. and @Quinach - good pics again! What altitude are you at there?

We have the first growth of grass at the foot of our wall on the pavement side. You can bring your sheep over any time, @Northernlights!

Around Cabrach the road is around 1300ft - approached it from the south (B9002). Latter road in poor state of repair, lots of potholes thanks to the weather.

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Today's weather word is - Meh

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At least the straws have something decent about them to clutch with the ECM and GFS going for UK centred blocking at +240hrs:

1102ecm.thumb.jpg.e03e3e5a35073ed6bb6574ca28689119.jpg1102gfs1.thumb.jpg.a052cc67471f718dbc8f3451efba1f23.jpg

And then the GFS goes for glory in the outer depths of FI. Classic straw clutching but way better than a Bartlett for 384 hours of GFS:

1102gfs2.thumb.jpg.784b3db580de1646eff4b9ec1da71b68.jpg1102gfs3.thumb.jpg.0194cb832b4ea7c9bc1af042048ef428.jpg

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@CatchMyDrift as I have been mentioning over the past week or so I still believe we will be seeing a block of some variety soon given the MJO (although it hasn't panned out at other times this winter, I always try to be as positive as possible and believe our luck will change for the better) the £1 million question will be the location of said block, as I mentioned yesterday my preference would be to get that block as near to Greenland as possible to give us the best chance of a NE / E flow.

anim_adf4.thumb.gif.1dcde1414ff0c366dd4e15b6a0cadeeb.gif  gensnh-6-1-324.thumb.png.2f58b1e876e1718b3df1d21ea276895b.png gensnh-9-1-324.thumb.png.d6ba4e79c9e23b1c6f511e4721e1af38.pnggens-10-1-384.thumb.png.a938efc0a358430fdde8f77410df0ac3.pnggensnh-11-1-384.thumb.png.693788e413f5a9bee22386c65018f5d7.pnggensnh-15-1-300.thumb.png.1a11894d2b3c8ea2cb2dfa46c266cdc2.pnggens-17-1-264.thumb.png.21e7f049c84f1b70fa730278d6130fed.pngstill wouldn't rule out the high over scandi too although the block nearer Greenland may become the more likely route. gensnh-4-1-288.thumb.png.5efaf8be9e9457f36cb0fa0d14320702.png 

11.7C and cloudy here.

  

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Strong southerly wind off the Cairngorms bright sunshine and 13.5c. The famous Nairnshire climate .The Riviera of the North

Spring is here but unlikely to stay.  One sheep this morning was doing a seies of four legs off the ground jumps for about five minutes really enjoying the day.

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Aye, NL...the Foehn effect has already caught-out models and experts alike.👍

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Escaped out west for a few days now, settled into a little place on Skye.  This morning I came through Glenmoriston and Glenshiel which were both awash, both rain and serious snowmelt higher up.  Skye was drying up as a I got here, rainbows and light showers, and a stiff southerly (I still haven't forgotten Mandy). The car thermometer reported a max of 12C :shok: - but it was already 9C when I left home at 8 :shok::shok:.

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Lol. Stav says light rain or drizzle for the western isles. I'd put money on him never having been here as he said it without any hint of irony or eyebrow lifting.

We'll see tomorrow eh chaps?

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Eff me this is an echo chamber tonight, HC. How's things?

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Just now, Hairy Celt said:

Eff me this is an echo chamber tonight, HC. How's things?

Oh pretty mild you know. Just got to be wary of not posting too often or they put you out in the coal shed for an hour.

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1 hour ago, Hairy Celt said:

Oh pretty mild you know. Just got to be wary of not posting too often or they put you out in the coal shed for an hour.

It's quite comfy in the shed, if you don't mind spiders. 

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12 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

It's quite comfy in the shed, if you don't mind spiders. 

Don't mind them, as long as they ain't too big. Is this what we're forced to resort to when the weather won't play ball, talking about sheds and spiders? 

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i like to catch spiders in my hands.... it freaks out the kids and wife in equal measures

walked past the sledging hill with the dog last night and sighed..... since moving here in 2010 no matter how dire the weather the kids have always got at least one day even if for a few hours when they could sledge..... not this winter yet 😢

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Ok. If you're going to talk about piders then I'm off!! Oot of here until it's a pppider free zone. 😱😬 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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BBC forecast 0 - 1 HC hunch. Hopefully better this afternoon.

Also, we get the opposite effect to at home. There, the radar shows rain and there is none; here, the radar is blank and there's diagonal rain.

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15 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

It's quite comfy in the shed, if you don't mind spiders. 

 

15 hours ago, Ravelin said:

Don't mind them, as long as they ain't too big. Is this what we're forced to resort to when the weather won't play ball, talking about sheds and spiders? 

spiders 😮 if I see a decent enough sized spider I turn into Ron from Harry Potter :oldlaugh: giphy.gif  

back to the weather 10.3C here and cloudy 

whilst we continue to wait for wintry weather, Hawaii has had some snow

 

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honest to f🤐k even Hawaii trolling us with snaw. 

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Just as evidence that I am on Skye, not still trolling you (¿Qui, moi?) from the Black Isle...

181893130_EasaBhradain1.thumb.jpg.19814c76243f4c57cbb8862efa39e6bd.jpg   1389587556_EasaBhradain2.thumb.jpg.7a84e19b4e86234d74095df883571460.jpg 

The Eas a'Bhradain by the A87, just past Luib. And that's probably eaten my ration of interweb bytes for the week uploading them 🤪

Bisders? It's not as if this is Oz, with random small creatures coming OUT FROM BEHIND THE SOFA after your blood while you watch Celebrity Masturbators...

Wunderground reckons it's 21C here now!

Edited by Hairy Celt
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13c again today and a very strong south wind.Ground drying up very fast . RH of 55%

.Still have concerns about soil moisture levels this coming summer. Another season of extreme weather?

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1 hour ago, Northernlights said:

13c again today and a very strong south wind.Ground drying up very fast . RH of 55%

.Still have concerns about soil moisture levels this coming summer. Another season of extreme weather?

Yes, parts of Eastern Scotland had their driest ever January (Edinburgh for example) and from Angus down to Berwickshire there have been very few months in the last twelve that even reached average rainfall levels. Not much sign of significant rain in the foreseeable either for these areas. I suspect that Aberdeenshire round to the Moray Firth has been pretty dry also. Not sure if there are any huge concerns for the farmers yet though?

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Anyone else change the channel when the weather forecast comes on the TV lately? Such a rubbish outlook for cold and snow. 

I hope the summer brings some nice heat and thunderstorms 🙂

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7 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Anyone else change the channel when the weather forecast comes on the TV lately? Such a rubbish outlook for cold and snow. 

I hope the summer brings some nice heat and thunderstorms 🙂

It's the smug way that they assume everyone wants warmth in winter that really gets my hackles up.

'Hey look how much we've fkd the planet, now we don't have to put up with cold any more!'

Edited by Hairy Celt
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2 hours ago, Norrance said:

Yes, parts of Eastern Scotland had their driest ever January (Edinburgh for example) and from Angus down to Berwickshire there have been very few months in the last twelve that even reached average rainfall levels. Not much sign of significant rain in the foreseeable either for these areas. I suspect that Aberdeenshire round to the Moray Firth has been pretty dry also. Not sure if there are any huge concerns for the farmers yet though?

here are my stats for winter (so far) comparing to the 1981-2010 average https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gcvz0r35b

Dec - Average 74.0 mm , Dec 2018 52.5 mm 

Jan - Average 67.7 mm, Jan 2019 13.7 mm

Feb - Average 51.3 mm, Feb 2019 (so far) 21.4 mm

and the same for temperatures

Dec - Average Max  6.8 C, Dec 2018  8.0 C

Dec - Average min  0.7 C, Dec 2018 3.4 C

Jan - Average Max 6.7 C, Jan 2019  7.0 C

Jan - Average Min 0.9 C, Jan 2019 1.4 C

Feb - Average Max 7.2, Feb 2019 (so far) 8.0 C

Feb - Average min 1.3 C, Feb 2019 (so far) 0.8 C

3 hours ago, Stormeh said:

Anyone else change the channel when the weather forecast comes on the TV lately? Such a rubbish outlook for cold and snow. 

I hope the summer brings some nice heat and thunderstorms 🙂

I am not a fan of the heat but my attention will be turning to the Thunderstorm's - still in search of colder conditions through March then hopefully an early taster during spring with some thundery showers before some lively thunderstorms in the summer :oldsmile: hopefully I can get some more videos like this one I put up from last July 

 

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