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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

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4 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Euro4 has a different take on it but defo worth watching as both are keen on somewhere in Scotland getting snow:

0502e4s.thumb.jpg.69da909a0f4ae61a034114dce91b85e0.jpg

The forecast based on ecmwf 10km resolution shows a brief spell of snow down to sea level for Edinburgh, gfs showing snow from 200m (sleet below this level).

Still not clear exactly what areas will be hit, GFS p misses the Lothians mostly, whilst the GFS op still goes for a direct hit (with chance of snaw)

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5 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

So much uncertainty on the 18z ensembles... 

 

gefsens850Edinburgh0.png

I rarely look at the 850 temp graphs especially in situations when on the look out for higher pressure building as some of the runs with higher pressure will have higher / slightly higher 850 temps so can be mistaken for a milder run but in reality that high pressure could be headed to a destination - Greenland - Scandi etc and would / could eventually be pulling in those colder 850 temps like this one for example - 

 gens-0-0-384.thumb.png.bd57a9200859a314b29eff703eea1923.png  gens-0-1-384.thumb.png.db6fe344c1001fa90f815d03f84814fb.png or this gens-3-1-384.thumb.png.47184c364142512a241370148b65aeeb.png gens-3-0-384.thumb.png.ae31fea61c3c6fa4597545ef8177a014.png slight changes in the position / direction of the high can / will change the 850 temps in one direction or the other ie colder / milder so those charts probably look less cool / milder on the 850 graph but in reality are not far away at all from the colder 850 temps being over the UK  :oldsmile: 

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7 hours ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

The forecast based on ecmwf 10km resolution shows a brief spell of snow down to sea level for Edinburgh, gfs showing snow from 200m (sleet below this level).

Still not clear exactly what areas will be hit, GFS p misses the Lothians mostly, whilst the GFS op still goes for a direct hit (with chance of snaw)

You might be onto something! Latest Met forecast now mentions "perhaps snow in places" which wasn't in the forecast yesterday.

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The 00z ECM and GFS both go for some sort of block towards Scandinavia. ECM is too far south and GFS looks quite far east. Nice thought though.

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37 minutes ago, 101_North said:

You might be onto something! Latest Met forecast now mentions "perhaps snow in places" which wasn't in the forecast yesterday.

I take it back today 😂 the main area of precipitation has been moved north west, so more marginal rainfall for us. Uppers are also a bit milder than predicted yesterday. 

So probably about 4C and rain for us overnight, unless models backtrack again, which is unlikely

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anim_ogy0.gif

Anyone's guess on what model is right.

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the model that says rain no doubt using the tried and tested teleconnection sods law theory

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12 minutes ago, edo said:

the model that says rain no doubt using the tried and tested teleconnection sods law theory

We really are a bunch of grumpy old farts at times, myself included. You're right of course, but when did the dreams die? 😂😂

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I'm only posting this to test the GIF function on Meteociel, it's pretty cool. I did wonder why the images always save as a GIF from Meteociel but I can now see why:

anim_vvd6.gif

Some parts of the north are in for a decent few hours of snow.

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3 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

We really are a bunch of grumpy old farts at times, myself included. You're right of course, but when did the dreams die? 😂😂

im grumpy for the kids... i am personally at peace with weather gods.... honestly 😇

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About 20% snow cover left, nearly all in the usual sheltered spots where there is still a fair bit left and especially the woods where you can go for a real winter walk.Slight ground frost again this morning  and a few snow showers round the Firth. Hills looking resplendant in their thick snowcover. Currently 4.5c

Edited by Northernlights
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Heavy hail shower here, tried making a gif image of it. Not sure if it worked? 🙂 

88A646FB-FAA1-4286-9AB0-1DD572EA38DD.thumb.gif.d59281b205bc0cf00ced757266c4c8fc.gif

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19 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Heavy hail shower here, tried making a gif image of it. Not sure if it worked? 🙂 

88A646FB-FAA1-4286-9AB0-1DD572EA38DD.thumb.gif.d59281b205bc0cf00ced757266c4c8fc.gif

Aye it worked 👍 hope the cat was sheltered 🐈 :oldlaugh: 6.6C here and mostly clear skies 

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There's still little scraps of snow left in the garden here too, and lots in shady places (dungeons, brothels, betting shops, other dens of iniquity) nearby.

The forecast comes from a dark place too.

Wtf is a gif? 

Edited by Hairy Celt
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Still a good cover in place here. View a couple of miles from the house on the way home tonight. Icy roads in the mornings last couple of days at -4c with water run off freezing overnight. 

20190206_170148.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

There's still little scraps of snow left in the garden here too, and lots in shady places (dungeons, brothels, betting shops, other dens of iniquity) nearby.

The forecast comes from a dark place too.

Wtf is a gif? 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIF

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12 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

There's still little scraps of snow left in the garden here too, and lots in shady places (dungeons, brothels, betting shops, other dens of iniquity) nearby.

The forecast comes from a dark place too.

Wtf is a gif? 

 

You clear on that now?:blink2::oldlaugh:

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@Hairy Celt 

"Graphics Interchange Format

GIF means "Graphics Interchange Format (image type)". The acronym GIF most commonly refers to a short, animated picture without sound."

here is a tasty looking gif from the 12z GEFS with an easterly (sorry I know your hatred for easterly's :oops:)anim_jcb1.thumb.gif.32fa2d44f580cd599d60827f82db8c48.gif 

did end up with some darker skies out to the west / sw a short while ago here think that was @Stormeh's hail shower IMG_0214.thumb.JPG.abda34a62522c396d31504b2d9d93393.JPG

 

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21 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

@Kirkcaldy Weather its midweek and look whats now starting to show up...

1874319731_ScreenShot2019-02-06at18_53_05.thumb.png.8157df2f531a5442a7a4075b39ff1645.png

Don't look at the 850s, it's not much of a beast.

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4 hours ago, Northernlights said:

About 20% snow cover left, nearly all in the usual sheltered spots where there is still a fair bit left and especially the woods where you can still go for a real winter walk.Slight ground frost again this morning  and a few snow showers round the Firth. Hills looking resplendant in their thick snowcover. Currently 4.5c

Mean"t to add the old uns would say its( the snow) waiting for more.

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1 hour ago, ghoneym said:

@Kirkcaldy Weather its midweek and look whats now starting to show up...

1874319731_ScreenShot2019-02-06at18_53_05.thumb.png.8157df2f531a5442a7a4075b39ff1645.png

hmmm very interesting and not to blow my own trumpet but I might not be far off "timing hard to pinpoint ATM but a guess from me would be a more Atlantic influenced pattern til around 11th - 12th Feb before a quite down then possible blocking from about 17th Feb." 

gens-7-1-372.thumb.png.ff489aafcb86ab41982b737d6e0ab088.pnggens-10-1-252.thumb.png.c44d6c008390e683b8225539c3107d14.pnggens-12-1-384.thumb.png.17cc82b158900ccc7d9b7977ada3e355.pnggens-15-1-348.thumb.png.547d1d70e66b536bae3b580d2a6bd228.pnggens-17-1-312.thumb.png.bf066906d9f06ef92b7eba5c2674dfb6.pnggensnh-15-1-384.thumb.png.38d91b3e0f6f8f0f8a48ef50bae4d3a9.png   A long way to go yet but once / if we start to see higher pressure developing close to / over the UK things could start to get interesting quite quickly I think.

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