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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

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dont know whether to laugh or cry seeing this at the very end of what could well be last cold spell of winter (hopefully not) 

20190203_100749.jpg

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Light snow just started here in the last few minutes. Temperature has risen though and is up to +0.2C.

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Meh! Has turned quickly to a sleety mess! Ah well. Hopefully we'll get another shot in the next 2 months!

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Only got down to -2.3c overnight here and after climbing steadily, we are now sitting at 1.9c.   Pic looks as if there could be some sleety stuff coming through, but looks as if I'm destined for rain.

 

Edit:- Snowing heavily now but won't last long!

static_weathercams.php.jpg

Edited by Blitzen
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Started as heavy snow and gave a very respectable fresh covering. Now turned to heavy rain.

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Was snow here briefly but has turned to rain

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Snowing even here in the Ferry, wet stuff though and won’t be long in turning! 😪

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48 minutes ago, edo said:

dont know whether to laugh or cry seeing this at the very end of what could well be last cold spell of winter (hopefully not) 

20190203_100749.jpg

You should be worried - you've shown us where you live! 

Edited by Hairy Celt

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2 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

You should be worried - you've shown us where you live! 

I've already got the beer in the car. The kids are getting their jackets on, the missus has popped out to get nibbles. I reckon it's only about a 1hr drive 😂🤣😂🤣

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In just half an hour it's replaced everything we've lost to the sun over the last two days 🙂

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Front has cleared through entirely as snow here.

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Easily the coldest night of the wInter so far at -8.3°C.

Varying degrees of heavy snow since 9am... :oldgood:

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I can't load this directly as the file is too large but I've put a wee video on my Facebook weather page:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1850707551699936&id=422182047885834&notif_t=page_post_reaction&notif_id=1549191945156157&ref=m_notif

Nothing too special but it's the heaviest snow I've seen all winter. But not the last ;)

 

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looking further ahead for more Snaw chances.....as mentioned by @Kirkcaldy Weather a day or so ago, the MJO is in prime phase and forecast to move from phase 7 to 6 then back to 7 again. This gives us more chance of an Atlantic ridge or Scandinavian blocking. The NAO has a much greater % chance of being negative in these phases however the models are not showing this on their output, why? I personally think the SSW downwelling and the effect of the Canadian vortex lobe draining into the Eastern US has trumped standard pattern drivers and thwarted our chances somewhat of the "standard" pattern emerging for the current MJO phases. Thankfully the Canadian Vortex has now started to recede somewhat and will have less of an influence downstream into the Atlantic. So I suppose that begs the question will things improve for us in terms of overall blocking pattern and snow potential? I'm thinking yes and the models will start showing this potential by the middle or end of next week. Teleconnections this winter so far have took a bit of a beating as things have not worked out quite as expected and the overall pattern will need to be carefully analysed to determine why. Even right now the torques and AAM are doing strange things, ~Mountain torque remains high with frictional torque low forcing AAM for longer than expected given the overall momentum budget, things should have started easing off a bit allowing the atmosphere to slow its pace (Imo this then allows for a more wave jet stream allowing the blocking patterns to take hold) This doesn't mean we should dismiss teleconnections as 9/10 times they are the best indication of how an overall pattern longer term will pan out. So a few more days of modelling miseerableness then back to something of a bit more interest. 

Dont get me wrong here we have done ok in terms of snow and cold, even the far south of the UK has seen some but the potential is there for more and us low level Fifers are snow starved and want some Snaw!!

Some charts for consideration while reading the post.

1419744150_ScreenShot2019-02-03at11_06_54.thumb.png.84a3f33ebe8a3a7db28f230d2ba27d52.png  1195859951_ScreenShot2019-02-03at11_08_21.thumb.png.a9142b0e1dd8b164dc43a65eb87ab73a.png 1157273625_ScreenShot2019-02-03at11_06_30.thumb.png.04d591ded6e47f8948261fcc8df83dd5.png  236429047_ScreenShot2019-02-03at11_08_46.thumb.png.8930e13d5b92bdf129984269bf63cb15.png  1925004522_ScreenShot2019-02-03at11_12_34.thumb.png.b97db69367d94353fa3b37db32966ba6.png

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A short Sharp burst o' snaw earlier, had hoped that it might have lasted an hour or so, but eh naw!

Thinkin about this winter so far, we have had mair frost thickness than snaw depth in these parts🙅

 

Big fkn snaw starved Innes

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Snow has cleared-through now, leaving 4cm. Drip drip drip has begun +0.9/0°C

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