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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

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Morning all. Cold crisp start after a blustery weekend. Colder in the wind than temp suggested, but got 2 loads of washing dry.

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A cloudy morning here and feeling colder than yesterday. It's starting to brighten up at the moment some sunshine out to the West from the Atlantic moving in.

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Repeating bursts of cold seem to be the theme now. Waaaaay better than the continuous burst of meh we have had so far this winter.

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From M.W.I.S

PLANNING OUTLOOK

All mountain areas of Britain from Wednesday 16th January 2019

A cold front moves south on Wednesday, and freezing levels will drop markedly. Showers of snow or hail to increasingly low levels Weds-Thurs. Pressure then builds to leave fair and frosty conditions later in the week, although complications arise as low pressure and fronts try to edge in from the west. Some snow is possible, perhaps focused on Wales and N England. The general outlook into later January is cold, with snow accumulating on the mountains, but precise detail uncertain.

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Scroll down to The Daily Update  - https://www.weatherbell.com/ - the cold is on its way for us according to Joe Bastardi.

Canny wait tae see the white stuff.

Edited by Klippie
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some great runs tonight.... including a superstorm that would see blizzards and powerlines down only 10 days away..... so ok thats not coming but plenty in Scotland seeing some snow later in the week and all eyes on next week to see if we can all join in the fun

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Nothing like a GFS v ECM battle running in to a potential cold spell. The GFS is the 1st pic, the ECM is 2nd. From +168hrs to +240hrs:

1501GFS00z1.thumb.jpg.03dee95ce7600db939297ed0edd53127.jpg1501ECM00z1.thumb.jpg.62a680080712aac6e5105c838580dab9.jpg

 

1501GFS00z2.thumb.jpg.8cbda42459b7907826d6af61f612dcb5.jpg1501ECM00z2.thumb.jpg.a3c8c72b12f80785f3ef89cbc9bedc5d.jpg

 

1501GFS00z3.thumb.jpg.241cb366ce35ccc6cde9b1653b9429a4.jpg1501ECM00z3.thumb.jpg.a0ff2f136548d80ae791d0c9daeaee41.jpg

 

1501GFS00z4.thumb.jpg.b9bb1c4a2f3f5dbbee45eb7d8aa6b2f5.jpg1501ECM00z4.thumb.jpg.b4cbb2bd0e5587f3394b368b5d237132.jpg

The soon to be replaced GFS "should" be wrong over the ECM as it isn't performing well. The new version of the GFS also looks nothing like the ECM.

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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1 minute ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Nothing like a GFS v ECM battle running i to a potential cold spell. The GFS is the 1st pic, the ECM is 2nd. From +168hrs to +240hrs:

1501GFS00z1.thumb.jpg.03dee95ce7600db939297ed0edd53127.jpg1501ECM00z1.thumb.jpg.62a680080712aac6e5105c838580dab9.jpg

 

1501GFS00z2.thumb.jpg.8cbda42459b7907826d6af61f612dcb5.jpg1501ECM00z2.thumb.jpg.a3c8c72b12f80785f3ef89cbc9bedc5d.jpg

 

1501GFS00z3.thumb.jpg.241cb366ce35ccc6cde9b1653b9429a4.jpg1501ECM00z3.thumb.jpg.a0ff2f136548d80ae791d0c9daeaee41.jpg

 

1501GFS00z4.thumb.jpg.b9bb1c4a2f3f5dbbee45eb7d8aa6b2f5.jpg1501ECM00z4.thumb.jpg.b4cbb2bd0e5587f3394b368b5d237132.jpg

 

ECM was on the money with the beast from the east back in March ⛄

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Met office outlook for Grampian, Highlands and  Eilean Siar 

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Heavy snow showers and cold northerly winds easing with sunny spells developing through Thursday. Then mainly dry through Friday and Saturday with clear or sunny spells and widespread overnight frosts.

Edited by Sceptical
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Very mild temperatures today it's currently 10.5°C here this afternoon. It's another cloudy day we had rain all night that stopped this morning. It's a bit windy again with the highest gust being 45mph so far.

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You can keep that amount of snow, waaaaaaaaayy too much for my liking! A couple of inches is fine, a wee dusting, just so's I can get around! That looks well scary!

2 hours ago, scottish skier said:

Austria today. Hopefully us next week (EDIT, ok, maybe just 10% of that would be just fine).

 

 

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if the ecm is correct then my street in upper penicuik could get gobbleflappled by next wednesday 

1B61C302-222F-4E39-8A93-6049F7200D48.png

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Mild day, probably the last for a while (hopefully). I'm expecting to see some snow here Wed night through into Thu morning, a covering at least would be nice. After that? Models keep doing major flips and churning out completely different scenarios so for now I have no real idea what if any, snow any of us will see beyond Thursday. 

Edited by Ravelin
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2 hours ago, dragan said:

if the ecm is correct then my street in upper penicuik could get gobbleflappled by next wednesday 

1B61C302-222F-4E39-8A93-6049F7200D48.png

love that new word 😂

GFS just backed the ECM tonight.... we could be on the cusp of this thread getting busy again...... its been a while 

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Just in from work, I have not been on the MT for about 6 hours and there has been over 300 posts since my last visit. Everyone seems happy now as it looks like the beast from the East might well make a return. I done well from it last year so hopefully the same again if it comes off but as people have already said, no one knows what’s going to happen. Exciting times ahead 🙂

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Oh dear. The mood on the model thread suggests some people get out of bed then straight away watch the sad part in Bambi 

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Another damp grey morning..   A bit like the mood in the MT.     The BBCs longer range forecast last night described the difficulty in forecasting anything at the moment.  Could be cold next week or relatively mild.   The weather as always will do as it pleases.    Actually starting to get a bit scunnered with this weather now and looking forward to the longer days.  

 

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It’s unbelievable how much the mood in the model thread changes with each run. Last night the beast was coming back and everyone was so happy and then I wake up to see it’s back to doom and gloom. I don’t think I will bother posting in there anymore. I still think Scotland will get something decent over the next few weeks. The models can’t be trusted just now but surely we will get a decent spell of cold and snowy weather before winter is over.

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8 hours ago, Stormeh said:

Just in from work, I have not been on the MT for about 6 hours and there has been over 300 posts since my last visit. Everyone seems happy now as it looks like the beast from the East might well make a return. I done well from it last year so hopefully the same again if it comes off but as people have already said, no one knows what’s going to happen. Exciting times ahead 🙂

All change from last night, back to soon and gloom 

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Weather warnings issued for Grampian, Highlands and Eilean Siar - Snow and Ice Wednesday and Thursday.

 

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1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

Weather warnings issued for Grampian, Highlands and Eilean Siar - Snow and Ice Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Snow showers and Ice, with fresh/strong N to NW winds

1601mowarnFB.png

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