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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

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Not so sure about tomorrow anymore, gfs and gfs p have moved the area of snow just south of the central belt. 

More worringly, the long term is starting to look very mild and wet

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Not getting too excited about the next 12-24hrs. Potential for some showers bringing a dusting of snow. ARPEGE is saying aye why not, ICON-EU, GFS et al saying not a chance mate. Fri/Sat could be interesting but more runs needed. Enjoy the snow when it comes westerners! 

Edited by Mesosphere
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Somebody in the banter thread mentioned a Polar Low sweeping into Scotland Friday/Saturday. and just seen a southerner call northerners bitter coz the snow is going down south. pmsl yes we are all very jealous of your once in a decade 5cm of snow that we would call a dusting that we get every winter at some point.lol. crackers in there this week.

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8 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Somebody in the banter thread mentioned a Polar Low sweeping into Scotland Friday/Saturday. and just seen a southerner call northerners bitter coz the snow is going down south. pmsl yes we are all very jealous of your once in a decade 5cm of snow that we would call a dusting that we get every winter at some point.lol. crackers in there this week.

Yeah it’s going to their heads a bit. Never mind though! We’ll be enjoying our light dustings in the morning with a big bowl of cornflakes whilst they’re helicoptered off the M4 🤣

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3 minutes ago, Mesosphere said:

Yeah it’s going to their heads a bit. Never mind though! We’ll be enjoying our light dustings in the morning with a big bowl of cornflakes whilst they’re helicoptered off the M4 🤣

South or North  side??

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53 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Not so sure about tomorrow anymore, gfs and gfs p have moved the area of snow just south of the central belt. 

More worringly, the long term is starting to look very mild and wet

Not entirely sure about that if I'm honest, the latest GFS charts look relatively good for the central belt 

IMG_1556.thumb.PNG.d585ae367b5c78dd6c9fca9f0a56eb15.PNG

IMG_1557.thumb.PNG.2f2a4b56ddc9c07c4874207a2a351882.PNG

and latest GFS para latest run shows a respectable snow accumulation chart by 12pm tomorrow so it can't be that bad 

IMG_1558.thumb.PNG.26aa69bc307dba1fa151a7ec6e303cea.PNG

Having said that, I wouldn't trust the GFS precipitation charts if I'm honest. Better sticking with the close range high resolution models. Given the showery nature though then it'll definitely come down to radar watching with one or two surprises for some areas and likely other areas seeing barely anything at all. 

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Lots of pink bits on the radar @Hairy Celt i know you love them pink bits 😲😉

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3 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

We’ll be enjoying our light dustings in the morning with a big bowl of cornflakes whilst they’re helicoptered off the M4 🤣

Porridge please, nane of these cornflakes.😊

Seriously, I am worried from a safety pov about setting off on a driving journey from Aberdeenshire to Somerset early tomorrow.

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2 minutes ago, ciel said:

Porridge please, nane of these cornflakes.😊

Seriously, I am worried from a safety pov about setting off on a driving journey from Aberdeenshire to Somerset early tomorrow.

Thats not my post you quoted... but some reason its showing as my post... must be all that snow down south messing with the internet..😂 and i would stay at home as they are expecting 3-5cm in some jackpot parts. pmsl

Edited by bigsnow

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The MetO raw data must be looking alright for the central belt too, this for shotts in the middle of the central belt 

 

IMG_1561.PNG

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1 minute ago, bigsnow said:

Thats not my post you quoted... but some reason its showing as my post... must be all that snow down south messing with the internet..😂

LOL

 

20 minutes ago, Mesosphere said:

a big bowl of cornflakes whilst they’re helicoptered off the M4 🤣

Apologies bigsnow. Correction now. :oldgood:

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Here is the polar low mentioned earlier. Looks a bit Meh tho, for me anyway 😜

631140243_polarlowgif.thumb.gif.2af9d66008f6342c48b518855172c26d.gif

 

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Wee bit snowy in South Lanarkshire just now on the drive home. Fluttering down in Biggar with much excitement in the co-op.

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13 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Updated fax charts looking tasty even for areas further east

it was indeed that first front crossing earlier and it looks like the second front is intensifying those showers already looking at the current radar 20190128.1821.PPVA89.png  troughs - 20190128.1634.PPVE89.png

possible polar low type feature? 20190128.1719.PPVG89.png  20190128.1719.PPVI89.png could be a few surprise snowfall amounts and possibly an upgrade to an amber warning at some stage tomorrow? we shall wait and see but I wouldn't be surprised 

@ghoneym might be a bit more than a covering... 

Oh stop it! I'd already made peace with my disappointment 😂

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Just seen this on Facebook, not sure what you all think? 

3FB34159-9CBB-463B-BBBC-C69C4B6D0691.jpeg

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I can't say I'm expecting a lot from this week. Tomorrow looks similar to last week which brought an inch of snow. Most of the snow showers will be tracking to the south of the central belt so anything more than an inch would be surprise. The frontal snowfall for later in the week has corrected south (as is often the case in south set-ups) though I suspect some south eastern parts of Scotland could see some snow. It seems some places south of the border could be in for an interesting week with at least two oppurtunities for snow. Up here it's a fairly normal cold snap but it's still nice to have some winter weather to talk about after an abysmal first half of the winter. The second half of the winter is already an improvement with a couple of snowfalls though we're yet to see anything spectacular (hopefully tomorrow will exceed expectations and deliver something more exciting). As has been the case since 2013 mid-January onwards tends to see a marked improvement in snow - in the past Christmas would see a change in favour of wintry weather - though paradoxically most of the notable events in the last 10 years have occurred in the first half of the winter. This winter has been the opposite of last year with a frustratingly stagnant set-up. It hasn't been particulary mild and we haven't seen much wind and rain but the first half of the winter only saw one snowfall - even a mild, zonal winter like 13/14 would have seen more wintry interludes - and it was pretty dull overall with little sunshine - a couple of cold days including an ice day on Christmas Eve enough were the only occasions with a seasonal look and feel.

The SSW so far has been a disappointment and is a reminder of how we shouldn't put all our eggs in that basket. Last year's beast from the east was the most successful cold spell resulting from a SSW in my experience but we'd already enjoyed plenty of snow from a westerly source earlier in the winter. 2013 was the last time we had prolonged periods of cold weather but both spells in January and March were frustrating in terms of snow (in particular the former) with more snow falling in February. The year before that saw most of the cold in Europe with parts of England on the edge whilst Scotland missed out. The snow of the last week and hopefully this week is probably as a result of the SSW but we had plenty of these set-ups last year without a SSW. It doesn't appear any prolonged spell of cold or snow as a result of blocking is on the cards for the next few weeks - perhaps late February and March will be different. I was hoping for an equivalent of the notable prolonged cold spells and Greenland blocking of 2010 during the second half of winter with a January or February reminiscent of the 1980s or 1950s with a chance of the first sub 1C month, coldest second half of the winter and first -15C minimum in Scotland since 2010. Alas this year is a reminder of the pitfalls of getting blocking established and how special 2010 was for cold and snow in modern times. If we end up with 10cm or week of snow cover then I would take that over 2 weeks of wet snow or little snow.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Keyring said:

Just seen this on Facebook, not sure what you all think? 

3FB34159-9CBB-463B-BBBC-C69C4B6D0691.jpeg

A think someones been on the glue over at GBW weather, if that's an accumulation chart then no chance. Most of any snow falling south of Northampton / cambridge will thaw pretty quickly as the front moves through.  North of that maybe a chance.

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15 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Oh stop it! 

You beat me to it 😉

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55 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Lots of pink bits on the radar @Hairy Celt i know you love them pink bits 😲😉

I do, I do. But those pink bits won't get this far east - I can't remember ever getting more than dustings from that way cos the hills  STEAL IT ALL.

Ms HC reports 6 tiny flakes on her windscreen. It's a start I guess but I think this evening's entertainment won't have anything to do with pink bits on the radar.

 

(I'm writing a draft script for 'Carry on snowing')

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46 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Updated fax charts looking tasty even for areas further east

Those fax charts look great, fingers crossed! 

Bring us the snaw!!!

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1 hour ago, Ruzzi said:

Not entirely sure about that if I'm honest, the latest GFS charts look relatively good for the central belt 

IMG_1556.thumb.PNG.d585ae367b5c78dd6c9fca9f0a56eb15.PNG

IMG_1557.thumb.PNG.2f2a4b56ddc9c07c4874207a2a351882.PNG

and latest GFS para latest run shows a respectable snow accumulation chart by 12pm tomorrow so it can't be that bad 

IMG_1558.thumb.PNG.26aa69bc307dba1fa151a7ec6e303cea.PNG

Having said that, I wouldn't trust the GFS precipitation charts if I'm honest. Better sticking with the close range high resolution models. Given the showery nature though then it'll definitely come down to radar watching with one or two surprises for some areas and likely other areas seeing barely anything at all. 

Edinburgh right on the edge though ... 😔 I think it will come down to nowcasting and keeping an eye on the radar, hopefully we get some nice showers here too! BBC showing sleet showers and <50% chance, metoffice showing a couple of hours of snow too. 

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It's not snowy  sunset.thumb.jpg.e4dcdfc776b452df16b31d40d3f95056.jpg  but there was this vaguely pretty sunset earlier, looking across towards Munlochy Bay direction. Boy was it cold though, exposed to that

ARCTIC BLAST.                    

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Shower activity starting to pep up out to the west now 

 

IMG_1563.PNG

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