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shuggee

Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

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15 minutes ago, Gogoslo said:

Deary me.  What on earth has happened to the model threads?  Ever since they changed the threads they are almost impossible to follow.. shame as I used to like reading the posts of a learned few. 

I find the Focussed thread is really good, no nonsense at all and very informative. 

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I now spend most of my time browsing here and the focussed thread- I haven't got a clue what they are on about but I don't want to throw things at my laptop which is pretty much how I feel when I risk my sanity and peruse the musings of fools in the other one!

apologies to those from here who post in there but it's just a bit too IMBY for me.

Edited by snawbaw
forgot to qualify chat

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BBC weather for the week ahead coming up lets see what model output they are following/favouring.

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Pub run Friday night special tonight. the GFS has had a few shots at the bar and wants to go to the club for another go.

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GFS now showing rain over the Lothians on Monday 😭 -4 uppers aren't going to cut it. GFS p on the other hand has the right temperatures, but no precipitation 

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I've not seen much mention of Scotland in the models thread, is this just usual, or is it the case that the way it stands at the moment it's not looking promising for much snow over the next week? 😞

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59 minutes ago, Keyring said:

I've not seen much mention of Scotland in the models thread, is this just usual, or is it the case that the way it stands at the moment it's not looking promising for much snow over the next week? 😞

They are only worried about the South of England nothing new to be honest 

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10 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

They are only worried about the South of England nothing new to be honest 

It's just weight of numbers, no conspiracy 🙂

Ironically after all the rubbishing that's been done to the almost retired GFS it has been this model which has handled tonight's low far better than the ECM and UKMO. Both the latter have come round to the GFS plan of the low staying on a more southerly track. If it does stay slightly south I might get some snow after all. If not at least the roads will get a bit of a wash. "Dry" winter months = filthy greasy roads.

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36 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

"Dry" winter months = filthy greasy roads.

Ugh, nightmare! For some baffling reason I just bought a white car and I'm already regretting it 😉

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4 minutes ago, Benvironment said:

Ugh, nightmare! For some baffling reason I just bought a white car and I'm already regretting it 😉

😂

I can wash my car one day and by the next day the rear numberplate is too dirty to read. We've had 4mm of rain so far this month although tonight should fix that.

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8 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

😂

I can wash my car one day and by the next day the rear numberplate is too dirty to read. We've had 4mm of rain so far this month although tonight should fix that.

I might go wash my car later, in the rain. It should then stay clean for a day, as I've no intention of moving it until tomorrow. Miserable looking day outside, grey, rain, snow almost all but gone. 

Looking at the forecast for the week, there's plenty of precipitation in it, there's also plenty of cold in it, it's just not looking likely that the two will coincide at quite the right times. An increasely frustrating winter. 

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Just now, ciel said:

After overnight rain, a mild, grey, soggy, foggy, stratus morning. 

I have to admit to obsessively watching this cloud throughout yesterday (🙄) I spotted it in the morning and it hung more or less stationary over the hills until sundown at least.

1675310444_Lent01.thumb.jpg.9b606d73df433bc8710d3ceda6ae2d83.jpg L09.thumb.jpg.c0074eb9de0ee501fe0a75cd948b41ec.jpg

The Cheviot often has its own cap cloud like that. It can sit for many hours and then just drift off like an airship. Defo worth watching 🙂

 

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Interestingly the Met-O outlook looks like this:

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2019 to Friday 8 Feb 2019: Sunshine and wintry showers on Wednesday, with these becoming more confined to eastern and perhaps southern areas. Otherwise, some sunshine around, before cloud and outbreaks of rain and hill snow will move into the west by the end of Wednesday. This will move east into Thursday, maintaining this changeable and at times unsettled and predominantly cold spell of weather. Snow is likely to lower levels at times, perhaps more so than during the cold weather so far as low pressure systems take a more southerly track towards Biscay, with overnight frost and ice remaining a risk too. There is still a small chance that even colder conditions may develop during early February with easterly or northeasterly winds dominating, bringing an increased possibility of disruptive snow.

And the 00z UKMO looks like this with the big low heading SE towards Biscay which should allow us to stay in colder air to the north:

2601ukmo1.thumb.jpg.789b03828b1ff2279626f577eba347ad.jpg2601ukmo2.thumb.jpg.6ccd41b03c273f3f450f694cce1cfd79.jpg

So perhaps the ECM is wrong with the GFS and UKMO showing the way?

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So currently we are seeing 3 chances of snow for next week. First, on Monday, although could be too mild and rain. Then on Tuesday, showers potentially moving in from the west again. Looking fairly dry on Wednesday and then Thursday/Friday there's a risk of seeing prolonged snowfall and heavy showers brought in on easterly winds (no beast). However this is very likely to change and depends a lot on where the low decides to position itself. Bring on next week!

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Agreed that the week ahead is easily the most interesting of the winter so far. Looking over Lothian those opportunities for lowland snow all have -7°C uppers, so it's a definite possibility inside the A720 city bypass.... 

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Really vile at the moment wind and pretty heavy rain but maybe a important change for the week ahead

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26 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Agreed that the week ahead is easily the most interesting of the winter so far. Looking over Lothian those opportunities for lowland snow all have -7°C uppers, so it's a definite possibility inside the A720 city bypass.... 

It's also a little different to a classic easterly where the heights are higher, we'll not need such low 850 temps to be on the right side of the margin. It looks as if we've bought the right ingredients from the shop but can we bake the winning snow cake? 

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Meanwhile netweather's forecast shows snow for today... with 5 degrees :D 

That's not happening, if we do see anything wintry it'll be after 22.00

snow.JPG

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Damp and very foggy - completely still outside which itself is quite unusual for here.

Temperature 3.8c which is a bit less than the MET forecast for this time - maybe for a change we'll be on the right side of marginal this evening as currently we are down for rain/sleet. 🤞

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Vile sums up today well NUT. Horror show of a day so far. Any remnants of snow looking tragic. Rain to snow events can be bumper though and forecasts often underestimate totals, so awaiting the more northerly winds late afternoon to see what they bring. Good to see things remain interesting for next week 👍 5c

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A bit of a breeze in the last half hour has blown away the fog to leave a bright afternoon and a big jump in temperature - up to 7.2c now.   Hmm, maybe it will be cold rain this evening after all 🤮

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looks like the pink area is getting a bit bigger on the radar, some in here could get a surprise later and into tomorrow.

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Certainly could be some snowy weather for us Scots in the shorter term with possible frontal snowfalls and possibly more organised snowfalls too (all depends on how the areas of low pressure position themselves and hopefully we end up staying on the colder side of things) 

anim_qsx4.thumb.gif.063f73c858870f044ab9079918e477f2.gifgens-2-2-60.thumb.png.2bca018e8d39ebb6d8babf1639b17717.pnganim_vur3.thumb.gif.c112a2742d87b210c02b0e11f0583224.gifanim_shi6.thumb.gif.0a2268bed3c5f9299fd76dd721838ac9.gifanim_ske7.thumb.gif.4e84315f85cc3b521d81745a47c5d02b.gif    

and still some hints that the longer term might be interesting too

gensnh-3-1-288.thumb.png.2b3d09f541e754b73ef3fac46c3bde57.pnggensnh-4-1-360.thumb.png.8b05d45ff685dee996a0762c4b96fefd.pnggensnh-8-1-384.thumb.png.5b2966d2f501a02c354e677a8b52554a.pnggens-14-1-204.thumb.png.355cdb6db009c5caeeaeee110a7d71bb.pnggensnh-18-1-384.thumb.png.80d24fa8ce5a12c9fa2421fc92fdb349.pnggens-2-1-276.thumb.png.79e90c4eab9054507adbabf0326e7a99.png      

gensnh-3-1-276.thumb.png.b78d9fe3588ca0f134d350184e9a6555.pnggensnh-3-1-384.thumb.png.64d10ab63f568872de56dd7f275bcff8.pnggens-8-1-384.thumb.png.933002b39ad8548e2e72c9370004d703.pnggens-17-1-300.thumb.png.21e1899d3394f1c4dfeec686f33e5fd6.png     

MON THE SNAW :oldgrin: 

ps this is my reaction now when I see the "winters over" type posts in the model thread DgtqpBGX0AA2kMS.thumb.jpg.4f470bd7943a5fd02cbf8451d0d95c2e.jpg 😂

 

 

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