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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

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OK, the charts on Meteologix.com have updated for the ECM 12z run so I can see more detail of what it's predicting. By the end of the run next weekend, the control has a snow depth of 29cm, most of that falling during Sat, in 45km/hr winds for Alford. 

Pity it'll likely change as that would be something special! 

Edited by Ravelin
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Always makes me laugh when they post maps for snow over in the cold thread. Scotland always cropped off. maybe they just cant bare to show how great the snow will be up here.

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26 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Always makes me laugh when they post maps for snow over in the cold thread. Scotland always cropped off. maybe they just cant bare to show how great the snow will be up here.

Yeah, why are they all moaning about the ECM solution, personally I think it's the dogs danglers... 

Screenshot_2019-01-24-22-55-37.thumb.png.cb1186c13e7562edb0b519723029b202.png

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In the short term Sunday is starting to be firmed up as a decent snow chance for inland parts of the north-east and inland parts of the central and eastern Borders. Proper blizzard conditions if this comes off but mostly away from populated areas:

2401gfs.thumb.jpg.4e93c1c3d9fde2c186cc850757a902df.jpg

I've used the GFS 18z from Meteociel to illustrate this as for some reason I can't upload Netweather files. Go figure 🤔 The GFS is not alone in this, some of the other short range models are in agreement so it looks as if something is on.

In the longer term the ECM and GFS 500mb means from the 12z look like this:

2401ecmgfs.thumb.jpg.7fb09f71dbc01e6ccd9c9a08f6ccd642.jpg

Pretty solid agreement, we should end up with more snow chances from Sunday this week to at least Sunday next week as we're on the cold side of the jet and the upper flow will have some type of northerly influence. If we can't have a Scandi or Greenland high then this is the best option for us.

 

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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Mild air making headway this evening on drive through from Inverness on the A96, temperature never below freezing even in the Glens of Foudland.

Lovely morning in Aberdeenshire though, cold, crisp and sunny.

Bennachie currently covered with the lightest dusting of snow....

Snag_7169ab2.thumb.png.51f4e8514d0db60349a7382a3fa59140.png

Looking north towards Pitcaple area, again just a few remnants of snow to be seen

IMG_20190124_130357031.thumb.jpg.fa0c8ef3e9731c013243e74c6b898f6f.jpg

Not seen many skeins of geese recently - then came across this bunch in a field near Chapel of Garioch

Snag_71b883b.thumb.png.df54f629d99776d028151035480cbc25.png

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1 hour ago, bigsnow said:

Always makes me laugh when they post maps for snow over in the cold thread. Scotland always cropped off. maybe they just cant bare to show how great the snow will be up here.

Time for us to crop them out 😂 I was looking for a nice snow chart for Scotland, couldn't find one so a cold one will have to do 😂 hopefully we'll be able to post some snowy ones tomorrow

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Much better thread for seeing the snow chances up here... extremely excited at the thought of getting plenty of snow. I’m due back onshore on Wednesday flying via Sumburgh, so hopefully nothing will stop the flights as I want home to enjoy whatever snow we get. I’ve got a new winch to fit to the front of the 4x4 as soon as I’m home.

 

If there isn’t a big amount of snow around the Lothians while I’m home, I’ve got a route planned to go up north for a few days and I’ll take the camera and make the most of it....

5AED6BED-3F0F-41C8-9A75-49659A2669C7.png

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1 minute ago, Keyring said:

Much better thread for seeing the snow chances up here... extremely excited at the thought of getting plenty of snow. I’m due back onshore on Wednesday flying via Sumburgh, so hopefully nothing will stop the flights as I want home to enjoy whatever snow we get. I’ve got a new winch to fit to the front of the 4x4 as soon as I’m home.

 

If there isn’t a big amount of snow around the Lothians while I’m home, I’ve got a route planned to go up north for a few days and I’ll take the camera and make the most of it....

5AED6BED-3F0F-41C8-9A75-49659A2669C7.png

Can't see any chances of proper snow next week in the Lothians, but you'll definitely have more luck as you head west and then north. 

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7 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Can't see any chances of proper snow next week in the Lothians, but you'll definitely have more luck as you head west and then north. 

Thanks for the heads up 🙂 model reading isn’t something I’m very good at yet, but I wasn’t holding out for all that much. Do you think there will be anything central Scotland wise before the middle of February... if not the second week in March onwards is my next hope haha!

but yeah, I thought that sort of direction would be the way to go, I’m sure it’ll be well worth the drive😁

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Sunday onwards definitely looks like a good (safe) bet for some snow for the north at least. GFS and ECM not agreeing about the details but they never do. One point that might be of interest to inner Moray Firthers (you know who you are) is the uncertainty over the exact track of the low; a nice north-easterly settling in for just a few hours, maybe middle of Sunday, would, could, give us a few inches here.  Rarely happens so don't start ramping. Monday night we get hit by a westerly, but ppn of any sort rarely amounts to much around the firth in a westerly. Then Tuesday night GFS is currently showing a sprightly low following an odd track which again might give us a north-easterly, but that's all pie in the sky for now.

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Well the inner Moray Firth cats agree  Had all three sleeping in the chair(can never usually agree with one another) next to rayburn this evening so cat models say snow on the way. Understand a lot of geese too have moved from this area further SW to Dunfries etc so maybe they know something. A lot of fresh scrapes in areas where the sun melts a bit of the soil during the day or under trees facing the sun. Badgers must be hungry too.Bird feeders are swamped too and are cleared on a daily basis. Currently 4c

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If the cat models say snow then I'll look oot the wellies. Looking good for me up here then Catch?

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Snaw cover still hanging on here. Thawing only very slowly. Currently, 0.0C/-1C and cloudy. 

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Had to give the thermometer a tap this morning, 4c?

A wet weekend in store which will suit my  trees, and hopefully the ski centres.

 

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There is no point going into the MT, it’s moan after moan in there. Models still look promising for Scotland, no prolonged cold spell but plenty of snow events likely over the next week or so from Sunday 🙂

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Weather station says 8.2c. It's all green oot there noo! Great! That means Himself can take me for lunch, we can pick up other car from the garage and then I can hit the Co-op and clear the shelves of bread, milk, wine and any other necessities! Looks like even Skye will get a wee dump of the white stuff next week! ❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄

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10 hours ago, bigsnow said:

Always makes me laugh when they post maps for snow over in the cold thread. Scotland always cropped off. maybe they just cant bare to show how great the snow will be up here.

Some of the Meteociel charts for the UK chop most of Scotland off but include all of Ireland. I don't think it's anyone on here being difficult 🙂

 

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55 minutes ago, mardatha said:

If the cat models say snow then I'll look oot the wellies. Looking good for me up here then Catch?

I thought I had replied to you but it seems to have disappeared. Yes, Sunday looks decent for you if the GFS is correct.

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3C at 8am but driveway was a sheet of ice. Now just outside Elgin it's 6C. Very green here and a noticeable thaw since yesterday all the way here. 

Hopefully the snow will start making a comeback late tomorrow onwards. 

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1 hour ago, Polar Gael said:

Snaw cover still hanging on here. Thawing only very slowly. Currently, 0.0C/-1C and cloudy. 

Update: temperature has rocketed in an hour. Now 5.6C/6C. Bit brighter though. Drip drip drip...

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Snow cover has taken a real dent through the night and this morning. The surrounding  hills are mostly snow free bar sheltered spots on north facing hills.

Starting to brighten up and the temperature has slowly crept up to 6c which has allowed the opening of windows to air the house. All good!

Lecht, Cairngorm and Glenshee don't look as good as they did yesterday and the forecast through today and Saturday isin't great.

Colder conditions on Sunday and this from MWIS:

Frequent snow

Snowing frequently through the day with risk of prolonged whiteout, especially across N Cairngorms. Snow increasingly to lowest slopes.

Something for everyone I guess.

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Meh! Can't see anything that's getting me too excited in the charts and forecasts for next week for my area although I hope I'm wrong. Some areas could do very well, especially inland, but I fear it's all too marginal for here. Too far east, too close to the coast etc. etc. Could all change though 😀 

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16 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Meh! Can't see anything that's getting me too excited in the charts and forecasts for next week for my area although I hope I'm wrong. Some areas could do very well, especially inland, but I fear it's all too marginal for here. Too far east, too close to the coast etc. etc. Could all change though 😀 

Being a fellow Eastie, I feel your fear.  But I think there's enough potential in those few days between Sunday and (erm later in the week) to get a bit optimistic.  We have 2 shots at a north-easterly which is good enough.

edit... have to say on looking at the charts now, it doesn't look as promising as it did last night 😢😳🚑

Edited by Hairy Celt
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10 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Being a fellow Eastie, I feel your fear.  But I think there's enough potential in those few days between Sunday and (erm later in the week) to get a bit optimistic.  We have 2 shots at a north-easterly which is good enough.

True! I'll take my chances with a NE'ly so fingers crossed! 

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Before and after picture...yesterday and today...snow at over 600 meters has vanished! ☹️

DIRTY MILD TEMPERATURE SNOW STEALING OVERNIGHT RAIN B#####D!!!!!!! 

 

814CF400-3A27-4B39-95BC-7E2BAE4B7E78.jpeg

9BBA5F83-3C62-4906-9BF2-20BB7FA62EA8.jpeg

Edited by Mr Frost
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