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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019


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Morning all

Quite heavy showers currently moving through parts of the Borders.

Chance of some thunder/lightning/hail today during the big downpours - West and South West Scotland in the sweet spots. Looks as though they will push through the Central Belt late afternoon/early evening.

Estofex looking good for lightning risk.

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Metoffice also give it a mention...

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I’m off work today so heading out on a local hike shortly - hopefully catch a wee thunderstorm or two. (Long overdue)

Last frames on the ECM (240 hours) - cold end to October still showing up.

49698B40-B333-4F44-AD77-CE3CE3E54067.thumb.gif.82f5ea8771a3422cadc585a14b997899.gifB191FF88-4F24-4A1D-BD62-45A57F6B219C.thumb.gif.ae1e18157ef8d5986926435d612fa856.gif

 

Have a good day!

Edited by Mr Frost
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Oh my life what an awesome snowy day!!! First thing......down to see how the Ballo is freezing over. It's getting there, but even the light snow on West Lomond looked the part: Then home fo

Best snow in years ? 2 1/2 inches before the met office issue a weather warning LOL a light cover at 7am started proper at 9 and still going, just about.

Strange weather here sleety rain and at times snow but general slow thaw before temperatures finally dropping this afternoon with snow setting in. First picture shows plenty of water funnelling down A

Posted Images

Some big showers incoming for many of us shortly - maybe a bit of thunder/lightning out on the Isles but can’t see much happening here!
 

Couple of torrential downpours in the distance earlier but nothing too exciting! 

FC93B28E-727A-4D18-BEDD-12B7626E8EB9.thumb.jpeg.5df7ea7c62c85ee634855b27f81cf6b6.jpeg1A494E91-3C6E-4D66-B71E-18879720FFF1.thumb.jpeg.cae7dd78cea95bae40b2bf176d91f806.jpeg2CE56A43-5E12-4687-94DE-E86E1429C5F1.thumb.jpeg.b853a4987b597d7851d083db0d1bda5d.jpeg

Seen a few butterflies and wasps about today!

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Have a good night!

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Time for a ramp, let's hope this is right:

min500enso.png
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

Two weeks ago, we wrote about the latest long range model forecasts, and what they show for the upcoming winter 2019/2020. While we wait...

In the meantime we were at North Berwick Law today. Hi @Kirkcaldy Weather you're over there somewhere:

20191017_161800.thumb.jpg.50541ccd31416984fcaaaa860fb4ec31.jpg20191017_162714.thumb.jpg.12c183f2db9fa080f3231a482e482d18.jpg20191017_161612.thumb.jpg.bb4c933d46401c5e54fc1b0b14343768.jpg20191017_161028.thumb.jpg.c95d12964256c59903c7444b2485330b.jpg

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2 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Time for a ramp, let's hope this is right:

min500enso.png
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

Two weeks ago, we wrote about the latest long range model forecasts, and what they show for the upcoming winter 2019/2020. While we wait...

In the meantime we were at North Berwick Law today. Hi @Kirkcaldy Weather you're over there somewhere:

20191017_161800.thumb.jpg.50541ccd31416984fcaaaa860fb4ec31.jpg20191017_162714.thumb.jpg.12c183f2db9fa080f3231a482e482d18.jpg20191017_161612.thumb.jpg.bb4c933d46401c5e54fc1b0b14343768.jpg20191017_161028.thumb.jpg.c95d12964256c59903c7444b2485330b.jpg

Did you see me posting that in the winter thread or just spooky same timing? :oldlaugh:  and here is some waving back from me in Kirkcaldy ? giphy.gif ?

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1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Did you see me posting that in the winter thread or just spooky same timing? :oldlaugh:  and here is some waving back from me in Kirkcaldy ? giphy.gif ?

??

I saw the forecast on Facebook and then posted it in here so just coincidence ?

 

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Just now, CatchMyDrift said:

??

I saw the forecast on Facebook and then posted it in here so just coincidence ?

 

It's a sign, winter full of blizzards and snaw drifts incoming! ? Our streets will soon look like this ? snow20in20Japan-thumb.jpg

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11 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

It's a sign, winter full of blizzards and snaw drifts incoming! ? Our streets will soon look like this ? snow20in20Japan-thumb.jpg

Interestingly this forecast is for the US to be average to warmer than average which is a good sign for us:

 

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5 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Interestingly this forecast is for the US to be average to warmer than average which is a good sign for us:

 

Certainly plenty of promising signs so far, see my latest post in the mod thread my attention at the minute is for higher pressure over Greenland then on the lookout for higher pressure to the east possibly over Scandi or Russia 

Looks like MJO could be heading into phase 2 soon which also continues the theme of higher pressure to the east https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_32594828e48d18aa94d6c4b8b63b1f6e.pdf OctoberPhase2all500mb.thumb.gif.0b85ba93b9f62d271f5a54cc7873ce38.gif OctoberPhase2gt1500mb.thumb.gif.bacca374f7f50bcefee9b883ffce7760.gif but I will look to do an update if / when any developments.

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Been pretty wet here too with steady quite heavy rain. Garden at the back starting to flood. Nothing like the torrential downpour we drove through heading toSt Andrews at lunchtime though. The kind of rain that bounces and immediately  floods the road.  Wipers couldn't cope so luckily the really intense stuff was quite brief. Was this lot forecast? 

 

BD7ABCC4-9D6E-49EE-92B1-C4376E637B4E.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Norrance said:

Been pretty wet here too with steady quite heavy rain. Garden at the back starting to flood. Nothing like the torrential downpour we drove through heading toSt Andrews at lunchtime though. The kind of rain that bounces and immediately  floods the road.  Wipers couldn't cope so luckily the really intense stuff was quite brief. Was this lot forecast? 

 

BD7ABCC4-9D6E-49EE-92B1-C4376E637B4E.jpeg

It was a last minute one, yesterday's Euro4 had most of the east looking likely to be showers at worst today. This morning's Euro4 took the rain round the Borders into Fife & the North-East. We had a very wet morning as the whole thing was 30 miles further west than forecast even at +09 out.

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Anyone for a spookily cold Halloween? 

gfsnh-0-288.png gfs-1-288.png

The GFS 0Z main run is a thing of beauty this morning and in a couple of months time would have had the MOD thread in rapture. A bit out on its own though, but been a repeating feature recently so you never know. 

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Weather here yesterday from early afternoon onwards was horrible. Unrelentingly wet. Haven't ventured a peek past the blinds this morning yet. 

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Some heavy bursts of rain overnight but dry above this morning.The most striking thing this morning is with an E wind from  almost the opposite direction we have been used to there has been a massive leaf fall overnight with the trees looking very bare this morning.A couple of very cool starts to the day in the last few weeks probably aided this  but I still think its a couple of weeks ahead of normal. Currently 8c and dull with a moderate E wind.

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It's very wet this morning, the roads are flooding over and we're sensibly heading half way across the Borders in an hour ?

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I know I am usually quite hard on the Met-O but I think they should have had their crayons out. Some of the rain stations around Edinburgh have had 20-30mm of rain in four to six hours, as forecast by the Euro4 on the 00z. And it's still raining. And it's forecast to keep raining in some parts for the next 12 hours.

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Sideways rain and blowing a hoolie here - very gusty indeed. Any wind orientated straight northerly or southerly get amplified in the valley here and suddenly it's freakishly noisy and the trees bend sidewaysie. 

Urgh.

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Non weather related stained glass windowing car just broke 2 weeks before we move... to say im unhappy is an understatement. i dont think the swear filter would cope. and my football got stuffed earlier too... cloudy but no rain since early hours here, breezy tho.

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Evening all!

Been a long time since I've been in here... good to see the same posters and that use have kept this thread going!

Must be snaw hunting time eh ???

And thoroughly SEEK of the peeshy wet fife has been festooned with yest and this morning... floods everywhere roads closed ?

Wee bit excitement building about a possible cold Halloween I see ?

Right now I'll be glad to get a dry day the morn 2 sort my garden out!

Wine pouring time... happy weekend folks! X

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Quite a wintry sunset again tonight with the yellow/grey shower clouds of this afternoon becoming pink tipped in the late afternoon sunset. In a months time these showers would have had a very wintry flavour.  A NE wind in October blowing showers onshore from the Firth is fairly rare here.As an aside to the leaf fall overnight I noticed that  the ash  leaves have tuned yellow and are falling too. Usually ash leaves remain green till November .Currently 8c

 

 

Edited by Northernlights
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A much better day today after the biblical deluge that was yesterday afternoon/evening. 

That caused plenty of localised flooding around Aberdeen last night (link) though not much evidence of it driving round the area today.

Max temperature of 11c with a keen N/NE wind, dry with sunny intervals.

Plenty people taking advantage of the better weather in Stonehaven - the Aberdeen bypass has been a real boon to the local economy going by the cafe owner we were talking to today.

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