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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

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7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Remnants of Dorian making it a blustery day today with a few showers coming through too. Was just having a read of some winter folklore, I had heard of most of them but one caught my attention which I hadn't heard of "The nearer the New Moon to Christmas Day, the harder the Winter." and this year the new moon is on Christmas Day/Boxing Day...  http://www.stormfax.com/wxlore.htm  also we were talking about the butterflies and geese not long ago which are on this list https://www.farmersalmanac.com/20-signs-of-a-hard-winter-479 some people think it is a load of rubbish but I think there must be some truth in at least some of them.

@Northernlights with you being a farmer are there any signs you look out for in the animals etc which could be the sign of a colder winter?

Animals often display a bigger appetite within one or two days of a storm in winter (air pressure changes?)but none that I know of regarding long range forecasts. The arrival of the geese at the begining of September this year about two to three weeks earlier than usual is probably a response to the snowfall in Svalbard and not a prediction of future weather although I could be wrong.

 

 

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5 hours ago, bigsnow said:

what site did you buy it from?

Got it on Amazon. Similiar price to other places but with free delivery. Good selection of malts on there to be fair.

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Another wet start to the day but is due to improve (with another chilly night on the way)

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20 minutes ago, NUT said:

Another wet start to the day but is due to improve (with another chilly night on the way)

We're usually a few hours behind with the weather so it's been a decent start:

20190912_070631.thumb.jpg.540e05af9bf00e315a0e26e3ab464a8e.jpg

The rain is on the way but it'll be light and patchy by the time it gets here.

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Not to bad a morning here but that radar shows the rain moving in slowly so expecting a wet afternoon. 

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It has been a fine warm evening here for the doggie walk.

 Sly.thumb.jpg.c00a702da54983128a28fe5d447d1e17.jpg

A Heron overhead

 H3.thumb.jpg.c032728ac339e038ed345569d2e6070b.jpg

And a potato present

pot.thumb.jpg.a8216df2d0bb827195d53263fc5e644a.jpg

 

 

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The last photo there is a gem!

What is the doggy called Ciel?

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9 hours ago, shuggee said:

The last photo there is a gem!

What is the doggy called Ciel?

Jess, or sometimes by another pet name, Oag/Oaggie

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More glorious Italian skies for @Mr Frost and an obligatory beech tree for @Hairy Celt. Still no sign of the tatties needing watered although it has been relatively drier recently with about 30mm in the last 3 weeks here:

20190913_075323.thumb.jpg.6427cbca49744ba861be480c12727125.jpg20190913_074110.thumb.jpg.0cbee84cee83b90d38136ed0c7998b86.jpg20190913_074213.thumb.jpg.a9ff9e1cb063a888a294ed9a580b6bae.jpg

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Have done some calculations based on the ENSO forecast for December / January / February I done the CET in another thread but here are the Scotland mean temperatures. DECEMBER 2.7 C , JANUARY 2.3 C , FEBRUARY 2.4 C  and a list of DEC/JAN/FEB with those figures

DECEMBERS WITH 2.7 C  - 1962 :spiteful:

JANUARY'S WITH 2.3 C - 1954

FEBRUARIES WITH 2.4 C - 1965, 1944 & 1910

Not a forecast just to monitor and see how close / far away those end up being and purely based on ENSO and previous Scotland mean temp years. 

when I get more time I will try and do some for each section of Scotland East / West etc.

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14 weeks today and we will be leaving Crieff heading to the hills of Aberdeenshire. just hope the snaw holds off so we can make it. 😂

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2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Have done some calculations based on the ENSO forecast for December / January / February I done the CET in another thread but here are the Scotland mean temperatures. DECEMBER 2.7 C , JANUARY 2.3 C , FEBRUARY 2.4 C  and a list of DEC/JAN/FEB with those figures

DECEMBERS WITH 2.7 C  - 1962 :spiteful:

JANUARY'S WITH 2.3 C - 1954

FEBRUARIES WITH 2.4 C - 1965, 1944 & 1910

Not a forecast just to monitor and see how close / far away those end up being and purely based on ENSO and previous Scotland mean temp years. 

when I get more time I will try and do some for each section of Scotland East / West etc.

Is the forecast for neutral or a weak La Nina?

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7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Just wondered as your years were a mixture on the websites I was looking at:

71733331_Screenshot_20190914-065419_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.943516fca3131d1ab19629cd7d112d34.jpg

Edited by CatchMyDrift

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What I love about this thread is we have members all over the place! North, South, East to West! It means when I am getting drizzle I can usually count on someone to post a picture of a sunny day! 😂 @CatchMyDrift being the main person with pictures of his rural countryside paradise of Tuscany...sorry Charterhall! 😀

@ciel seems to enjoy lots of bright days also! 

It’s a bit grim here today - currently 14c and yes...DRIZZLE! 

Lovely cloud formation today which makes up for the drizzle. (Asperitas clouds)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/clouds/other-clouds/asperitas

89E2BC96-8E31-4C67-B41A-C073B01C5994.thumb.jpeg.e9378a1ec6472e80d96f30e9818a63cf.jpegDCA210DA-99F1-4776-AE8D-96EC57D0E846.thumb.jpeg.436d9c2644b40226406de095557a294f.jpeg

Looking forward to next weeks weather! Starts of chilly/dry/sunny spells on Monday with 14c and by Friday it’s dry/sunny spells at 17c. (Hopefully it stays the same - not a bad week at all just the odd shower!)

7312A0CA-2849-4292-B50F-D5D60C6BEEDD.thumb.png.4f4d058aade31d77a190ac09c3dd1db0.png

Have a great weekend everyone! 

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Very dull here today grey damp and a cold wind. may even have to put the heating on in September, never before have i had to do that.

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Wow, dry and bright here - not sunny but not dull either. Was 15c the last time I looked but that was early on. Got a huge washing out, blowing away nicely.

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It has got a little brighter now but the wind is still blowing away. i did put washing out but had to bring it back in as it was getting blown off the dryer. 😆

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7 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Just wondered as your years were a mixture on the websites I was looking at:

71733331_Screenshot_20190914-065419_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.943516fca3131d1ab19629cd7d112d34.jpg

What I done was take all the years with the DJF (DEC/JAN/FEB) periods that had between -0.5 and +0.5 then went onto the CET / mean temp lists took note of all the years Decembers, Januarys and Februarys mean temps then averaged it all out and then went back to the CET / mean temp lists and wrote any years DEC/JAN/FEB that had the same mean temp 😀 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/ranked/Scotland.txt

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/Scotland.txt

Just done the same calculations for East Scotland and got, DECEMBER 2.2 C, JANUARY 1.7 C , FEBRUARY 2.0 C 

previous years with same mean temps

DECEMBER 2.2 - 1938

JANUARY - 1997

FEBRUARY - 1973, 1972, 1933, 1922 

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Signing in, in preparation for the winter. A bit dull and overcast here in Falkirk today but we've had a few cracking days over the last few weeks. Picked a bumper crop of Blackberries and made jam (for the first time ever). Hoping the winter weather will be a welcome distraction from the chaos/madness that is Brexit. 

DSC_0651.JPG

DSC_0652.JPG

DSC_0587.JPG

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It's been very windy here too, although not cold (around 16C) and with a brief sunny spell this afternoon.

@mardatha & @bigsnow I have had to rescue a few items of washing this afternoon which ended up pinned to border shrubs.:shok:

Leaves are beginning to fall too, in particular from the Whitebeam, which is one of the first to come into leaf and the first to drop them. I have not checked the plum trees, but I suspect there will have been a substantial windfall.

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6 hours ago, bigsnow said:

Very dull here today grey damp and a cold wind. may even have to put the heating on in September, never before have i had to do that.

Single figure afternoon max temperature forecast for us tomorrow. Going to be a shock.

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17 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Single figure afternoon max temperature forecast for us tomorrow. Going to be a shock.

Better get the stove cranked up. :nonono:

Not for long though, I hope.

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in the house we are currently in its a gas stove, horrible thing it is and i cant get on with it, the new place has an open fire in one reception and a multi fuel stove in the other. looking forward to using them in the winter.

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Fired up the woodburner in the lounge this evening, although strickly it wasn't really necessary. With it being a windy day, nights lengthening, although not exactly cold outside, it just felt like the right thing to do.

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