Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

16 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I know! Still haunts my dreams! 

Yes it was very dry in the end... These were from Gourock...( I didn’t live here at that time) Just shows you how far West it all got! Incredible spell of proper Winter weather!

First link below is a video time lapse.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/Gourock/permalink/10156180473234140?sfns=mo

2nd picture (bottom of my street) and 3rd (two minute walk from Gourock train station) are bonkers - both by the water! 

Yes easterly's are my dream setup especially ones like that / 2010 I done a post a few days ago looking at both of those events both times I got a foot of snow 2010 I was 100m ASL and BFTE I was at my current 20M ASL which is quite an achievement at that height.  

Always love watching the snowy forecasts and looking at snowy pics, as you can probably tell I am a snow addict    

[ciel]

 

2 hours ago, bigsnow said:

blimey what did i miss @ciel

Nothing, except stupidity.  

[Northernlights]

4 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Fabulous hay day for mid September very windy for the last two days and today sunny with very low humidity and wind although a bit cool in the wind. In spite of yesterday evenings heavy rain the hay was dry again by this morning in the strong  overnight wind and got better all day.

 

Hay season finally over and this last batch is very good .Will post a photo tomorrow.

Finished taking in the small bales of hay so here is the photo. Very chilly now as well at 7c

[scott125]

12 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

I know! Still haunts my dreams! 

Yes it was very dry in the end... These were from Gourock...( I didn’t live here at that time) Just shows you how far West it all got! Incredible spell of proper Winter weather!

First link below is a video time lapse.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/Gourock/permalink/10156180473234140?sfns=mo

2nd picture (bottom of my street) and 3rd (two minute walk from Gourock train station) are bonkers - both by the water! 

Think where i stayed we had more snow in the 2010 spell . Did have colder temperatures in 2010 spell than 2018. But amazing snow on the Clyde.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Inverclyde missed out in a way back in 2010. I stayed in Kilmacolm at the time and while we did get reasonable falls of snow it wasn't as good as it was for places only a small distance further east. We got one big blast of snow off a streamer but apart from that it was really just bits and bobs compared to other places where the snow was up to the wing mirrors on folks' cars. I'm not sure if 2010 would make it into my top ten snowtales and it definitely wouldn't be top five, but for some folk it's number one.

It's always interesting to relate snow stories as very often there are huge differences in snowfall over short distances and not always just down to altitude.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2010/snow-and-low-temperatures-december-2010---met-office.pdf

If you scroll down to page 4 you will see the snow depths map and as you say some big regional differences with 40cm Edinburgh / here and 10-20+ further west / north.

"Snow 25 November to 8 December 2010 From Thursday 25 November the UK came under the influence of a prolonged north-easterly airstream drawing bitterly cold air from northern Europe and Siberia. Eastern Scotland and north-east England were most exposed and saw persistent and at times heavy snowfalls - the snow resulting from moisture picked up as this airstream passed over the North Sea. With the persistent north-easterly winds and freezing conditions, very significant accumulations developed, particularly across the high ground with level depths of 50 cm or more (58 cm at Balmoral, Aberdeenshire on 30 November, and 55 cm at Westgate, County Durham on 2 December)"

"From 4 to 6 December a slow thaw in the south saw the ground largely free of lying snow south of a line from south Wales to the Wash. However, the snow-fields across the northern half of the UK remained undiminished with depths widely in excess of 30 cm. Heavy snowfalls across Scotland's Central Belt on 6 December saw depths of 29 cm at Edinburgh, Gogarbank, 51 cm at Kinross (north of Edinburgh) and as much as 60 cm at Livingston Mill (to the west of Edinburgh). From 9 December snow depths generally saw a gradual decline as milder air encroached across the UK."

ing that this winter gives something even half as good as that 

[shuggee]

Aye, Dec 2010 will always live in our hearts KW. 60cm+ in Balquhidder where I was snowed-in at a friend's cottage...

Lovely evening last night. Walking the dog by Broughton and the sky was stunning:

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The 6th December summed up the cold spell in Inverclyde. It actually poured with rain for hours that morning before it turned to snow. I remember driving to work in Paisley in lashing sleety wet snow listening to radio reports of the utter carnage in other parts of Scotland thinking "meh". By the time I got to Paisley it was snowing very heavily. After a few hours at work everyone packed up and went home, or tried to get home. The Glasgow folk in the office didn't get home for several hours, I got home quite quickly to find about three inches of mushy snow.

It was frustrating at the time but other times I've had amazing snow and others have missed out just down the road. It might have been Jan 2007 but @Ross B can vouch for me being lucky with snow while 30 miles away was 9C with rain

I think this is one of the things which keeps us all addicted to snowchasing, you never know what's going to happen. Would we be that bothered if we got 5 feet of snow and -20C for 3 months every winter?

Here we actually ended up getting another few inches from that stalling band on the 6th, the forecast was rubbish 

before they realized they had underestimated the snow 

That is the thrill of it all as you say with the will it / wont it and the thrills and often disappointments, I personally feel it is only a matter of time before we hit the jackpot and get something to rival 2020 / BFTE and I certainly wouldn't rule out a 62/63 or 47 repeat at some point, only time will tell if this year will be a memorable one  but  we will all be reporting lots of snaw.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 15/09/2019 at 14:14, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

West Scotland

DECEMBER 3.4 C , JANUARY 2.9 C , FEBRUARY 2.9

previous years

DECEMBER - 1966, 1938, 1919

JANUARY - 1972

FEBRUARY - 1944

North Scotland

DECEMBER 2.6 C, JANUARY 2.1 C , FEBRUARY 2.1 C 

previous years

DECEMBER - 1958, 1919

JANUARY - 1994, 1968, 1922

FEBRUARY - 1985, 1933

very interesting that Eastern Scotland comes out lowest overall which would obviously suggest easterly(s) throughout the winter. Guess we will have to wait and see but has certainly made me very interested in the possibility.

Same years that appear are

DECEMBER 1938

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=12038

"18-26th Dec., general snow, 1ft in east," https://durhamweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html

and FEBRUARY 1933

"Late February there was a Great Blizzard, for Ireland, Wales, South West England, Northern England, and the Midlands. Whipsnade recorded 2ft of snow, Harrogate and Huddersfield 30 inches, Buxton 28 inches! Very Snowy."

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/winter/winter-history

Have done some anomaly charts for DEC/JAN/FEB with these years and the ones with the CET (thanks to @BornFromTheVoid for helping get me the links to do so) https://docs.google.com/document/d/1G1U9l8bY0762CY4-E1LdTX0yi-9nUexuV34a71k0G70/edit?usp=sharing

again not a forecast just going to monitor and see what happens.

[Ross B]

3 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The 6th December summed up the cold spell in Inverclyde. It actually poured with rain for hours that morning before it turned to snow. I remember driving to work in Paisley in lashing sleety wet snow listening to radio reports of the utter carnage in other parts of Scotland thinking "meh". By the time I got to Paisley it was snowing very heavily. After a few hours at work everyone packed up and went home, or tried to get home. The Glasgow folk in the office didn't get home for several hours, I got home quite quickly to find about three inches of mushy snow.

It was frustrating at the time but other times I've had amazing snow and others have missed out just down the road. It might have been Jan 2007 but @Ross B can vouch for me being lucky with snow while 30 miles away was 9C with rain

I think this is one of the things which keeps us all addicted to snowchasing, you never know what's going to happen. Would we be that bothered if we got 5 feet of snow and -20C for 3 months every winter?

Don't rub it in or ill need to bring up that timelapse you had set up for a red weather warning for snow which drizzled

Agree though, the difference is massive across small areas, particularly in the west with the higher SST's.

I won't forget 6th December 2010 for a long time. It took me something like 14-16hours to drive from the west of Edinburgh home to Hamilton! I left early and made it into the office before the snow. I Saw it was going to be worse than expected but didn't have a great boss at the time so had to go into the office. Left at lunchtime, then I ran out of battery on my phone and ended up taking some dodgey back roads to pass some of the traffic with temps around - 18c showing on the thermostat. 

[Ross B]

2 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

When was that? I don't remember ever setting up a timelapse or even thinking about it. I remember chopping loads of wood and making a snow measuring stick one year and then it rained very heavily instead. It's always funny afterwards but miserable at the time.

Ah might have been that one, thought you had a camera set up watching your snow stick

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

@Big Innes Madori   

 

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

On 15/09/2019 at 21:34, bigsnow said:

you do know its only 21.33 right?

mmm good point....

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Not the stoorie Midori

It's been lovely down here, September has turned out very pleasant overall and we've got a warm and sunny weekend to look forward to now.

Yesterday afternoon:

This morning:

 

At least October is looking very decent for all of Scotland:

Some respite for my wetter western weather cousins.

 

Outside chance of something thundery this weekend but I think it will just be heavy showers / rain but will keep an eye on it. Does look like high pressure will build back in for October   

 

 

On 13/09/2019 at 18:36, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Have done some calculations based on the ENSO forecast for December / January / February I done the CET in another thread but here are the Scotland mean temperatures. DECEMBER 2.7 C , JANUARY 2.3 C , FEBRUARY 2.4 C  and a list of DEC/JAN/FEB with those figures

DECEMBERS WITH 2.7 C  - 1962 

JANUARY'S WITH 2.3 C - 1954

FEBRUARIES WITH 2.4 C - 1965, 1944 & 1910

Not a forecast just to monitor and see how close / far away those end up being and purely based on ENSO and previous Scotland mean temp years. 

when I get more time I will try and do some for each section of Scotland East / West etc.

Some more charts based on these and the CET figures, first DEC/JAN/FEB charts are all the years with all 3 months below 3.0 C for Scotland and the rest are based on the CET years

https://docs.google.com/document/d/15AAR37pJpLTPLF4w8d79W7tStDXjkyEg5X9ES4LambI/edit?usp=sharing

Signal looks to be

DECEMBER - Low pressure over the UK probably wet windy unsettled, possibly some cool zonality too with wintry weather on northern sides of lows 

JANUARY & FEBRUARY  - Low pressure moves south and higher pressure stronger to the north which suggests easterly(s)

Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

 

 

[Mr Frost]

Evening all!

Really looking forward to Friday and Saturday! Looks glorious here in the West and many other areas.

End of the latest GFS caught my eye...

This would be a very cold start to October! Big shock to the system and snow showers at quite modest levels. (No doubt the next GFS run will show the complete opposite of this but it is nice to look at! )

Really looking forward to this Winter - have worked in Glasgow city centre for years but start a new role on October 7th...office is based at 146 meters above sea level and only a ten minutes drive or 50 minutes walk from the house! Obviously the altitude sealed the deal on me accepting the role! 

Enjoy the rest of yer week and the warm/sunny weather soon to arrive!

Edited September 17, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Mair Snaw]

I'm just looking forward to winter and epic snaw falls...

[101_North]

2010 is number one for me - and I suspect it will never be beaten! I'll need to dig out all my photos but at one point we had 55cm level depth in the garden with drifting to about 70cm! We also had temps down to about -18c! Couldn't get the car out of the estate for about 3 weeks - mostly due to lazy laminate floor neighbours! There's only so much a few folks can clear!

2017 / 2018 was memorable for the number of fantastic snow falls here in including TBFTE!

2018/2019 was the worst in all the years I have lived here and still gives me nightmares! Think we managed 0.5cm of slush in late March but I'd given up long before then!

Edited September 18, 2019 by 101_North

[Mair Snaw]

2 hours ago, 101_North said:

2010 is number one for me - and I suspect it will never be beaten! I'll need to dig out all my photos but at one point we had 55cm level depth in the garden with drifting to about 70cm! We also had temps down to about -18c! Couldn't get the car out of the estate for about 3 weeks - mostly due to lazy laminate floor neighbours! There's only so much a few folks can clear!

2017 / 2018 was memorable for the number of fantastic snow falls here in including TBFTE!

2018/2019 was the worst in all the years I have lived here and still gives me nightmares! Think we managed 0.5cm of slush in late March but I'd given up long before then!

I totally missed 2010 due to swine flu.. just my bloody luck. 2017/18 was just unreal and TBFTE was stunning just stunning, will we every see a repeat?

2018/19 was not great but still had 3 snow falls in winter and then 2 in March, nothing amazing but good enough for fun and games with the little Big Snow's.

[Mair Snaw]

R.I.P Fernando Ricksen.. so young 43 is no age. same disease that took my father in law. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 hours ago, bigsnow said:

 2017/18 was just unreal and TBFTE was stunning just stunning, will we ever see a repeat?

YES   and can you imagine how much better / colder it would be in the heart of winter (January which a cold one is overdue IMO) possibly this winter?  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

35 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

It's going to be the start of March again for a beasty from the easty, you can't end up with rainfall anomolies like this without a strong easterly element to the wind direction:

Look at the rainfall signals over Scotland, Norway and Iceland. That indicates to me a Scandi high with easterly or south-easterly winds over Iceland & Scotland. 

The high then sinks south eventually drawing mild air up from the Med to explain the slightly above average temp overall for the month.

Are you sure now Catch one you make your winter predictions you cannae change them 

I will try and do the anomaly charts for March when I get the chance and see what that shows out of interest. Here is the list of Scotland mean temps for each month going from warmest to coldest https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/ranked/Scotland.txt

[Mair Snaw]

war breaks out in the MOD thread over a cold pool to the North East.... in September yes September. gonna be a very long 6 or 7 months.

[Northernlights]

Very damp misty day now its currently thick fog .Opened back  door just now and a frog hopped in.  Feels quite mild out there at 11c.

 

Into calving season again.Last night had one that calved in front of me and then walked off ignoring the calf to graze at other end of field. Spent the evening bringing cow and calf in to let them bond.Milked cow and fed calf by hand with bottle and teat. This morning tied up cow and put calf on with assistence from me. This afternoon saw wagging tail and calf  drinking from  cow in pen Yes!!!!! so they will go out tomorrow. Must just have been the shock of birth which happened very quickly as I watched.

[mardatha]

She should think herself lucky. At least she won't have that calf following her around moaning and giving her all it's worries for the next 40 years

[ciel]

10 hours ago, bigsnow said:

war breaks out in the MOD thread over a cold pool to the North East.... in September yes September. gonna be a very long 6 or 7 months.

TBH, bigsnow, I think the unrealistic, fantasy, snow hunting posts spoil and aggravate the MOD thread and are better suited to other areas of the forum.

[Mair Snaw]

3 minutes ago, ciel said:

TBH, bigsnow, I think the unrealistic, fantasy, snow hunting posts spoil and aggravate the MOD thread and are better suited to other areas of the forum.

Totally agree, its not a nice place to be in winter months. unless its snowing in the south east of the UK then winters a bust and all the toys are flying about. Scotland could be buried under 2 foot of snaw and nobody would notice. apart from us in here of course..