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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

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21 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Will it be as good as March 2018? 😉

 

(I know the answer to that one... nice if it comes off though as I've not seen it forecast elsewhere...)

Did the convection get all the way across from the East and give you a good dumping then last winter?

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26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A rare tonking for Glasgow looking a goer.

The euro4 is usually quite good, hopefully it is correct for tomorrow night and into Tuesday 🙂

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Did the convection get all the way across from the East and give you a good dumping then last winter?

Oh yes. Feb 28th into March 1st was of the likes not seen since 1987 here IMO... Seemed to be the perfect angle of attack as even places like Kilmarnock saw a fraction of the snow that Glasgow got.

Hoping that chart is correct as we've had little more than flurries here so far this winter. 🙂

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Did the convection get all the way across from the East and give you a good dumping then last winter?

It certainly did here, I am just south of Glasgow city centre and I couldn’t make it to work for 3 days because of the amount of snow. Hopefully we can get another dumping tomorrow night.

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2 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Oh yes. Feb 28th into March 1st was of the likes not seen since 1987 here IMO... Seemed to be the perfect angle of attack as even places like Kilmarnock saw a fraction of the snow that Glasgow got.

Hoping that chart is correct as we've had little more than flurries here so far this winter. 🙂

Surprised 87 did it for you - wasn't the surface pressure around 1040mb in your location?

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Surprised 87 did it for you - wasn't the surface pressure around 1040mb in your location?

High pressure does not matter if the wind is off the North Sea and the uppers are cold enough. The longer sea track picks up more moisture as was the case last year, and in Jan 1987, 1963 and 1947 for example.

In 1987 there was a level 45 cms in Kinross for example.

Edited by Norrance
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Surprised 87 did it for you - wasn't the surface pressure around 1040mb in your location?

this picture is from langside drive 1987 glasgow 

i stayed near Aberdeen at the time and was off school for days, we had powercuts and thundersnow.... 

5912280195_a7e1cc24e9_b.jpg

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Just now, edo said:

this picture is from langside drive 1987 glasgow 

i stayed near Aberdeen at the time and was off school for days, we had powercuts and thundersnow.... 

5912280195_a7e1cc24e9_b.jpg

Similar in Birmingham, over a foot where i lived with drifts up to my chest while walking to a closed school.

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2 minutes ago, Norrance said:

High pressure does not matter if the wind is off the North Sea and the uppers are cold enough. The longer sea track picks up more moisture as was the case last year, and in Jan 1987, 1963 and 1947 for example.

It does matter, but can be compensated for with very steep lapse rates in the mid level so get what you mean.

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40 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Will it be as good as March 2018? 😉

 

(I know the answer to that one... nice if it comes off though as I've not seen it forecast elsewhere...)

The Met Office, in their afternoon video forecast, were warning of blizzard conditions for West side of Scotland 300-400 Mts above ASL.

MWIS forecast makes for interesting reading.

Edited by Sceptical
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Absolutely dying for an easterly here lol 😂 but I’ll settle for a wee video of all your snaw in the west please 😜 

still very interesting viewing of the charts, still hopeful of more upgrades and some snow countrywide x 

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Certainly nothing to get too downbeat about in respect of current outputs, in particular ECM which is arguably the front runner at the moment in terms of reliability. 

Noticed some similarities from January 2018 to what the ECM is showing in a week's time. Albeit the uppers were slightly colder in January 2018 however -7 850hpa's shown at present but that's not to say that can't upgrade to a -8 or -9 closer to the time. I seem to remember in January 2018, the 850hpa's kept upgrading the closer it got to the actual event. 

Anyway here's what the midst of the snowy week in January 2018 looked like:

IMG_1471.thumb.PNG.888e9365aa290990e50b55c124979e32.PNG

And here's the ECM's chart for a week's time: 

IMG_1473.thumb.PNG.039a99a907bb48d9f49a7986c85d32fa.PNG

Not identical but a good match and the potential is certainly there as I seem to remember happened in January 2018. 

And from that very set-up we got this reasonable lot: 

IMG_1468.thumb.PNG.29dc24313e2e15b079e10843b6b1eb3b.PNG

IMG_1469.thumb.PNG.b60de62e4ea8e10daf1000775f86b2f4.PNG

IMG_1467.thumb.PNG.2cfca0602710cd88e7e268c8a7f847f4.PNG

IMG_1466.thumb.PNG.374f08e7992328659f710d05d487b1db.PNG

IMG_1470.thumb.PNG.b778f89cc84653c73b8ab65d747daea6.PNG

 

certainly enough to keep the interest alive and not forgetting tomorrow night/Tuesday could cause one or two surprises especially with some modest altitude.

 

Edited by Ruzzi
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42 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Did the convection get all the way across from the East and give you a good dumping then last winter?

The Firth of Forth creates a streamer at times, same as the Thames. The Forth-Clyde streamer is hugely effective, many of Glasgow's big snowfalls come from the east. Glasgow is not that far from the tidal limit of the Forth, less than 30 miles.

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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15 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Biggest chance of some serious snow is to the south-east of Glasgow. Easily up to 6 inches down the M74 somewhere, maybe more over the hills. The 00z Euro4 might put some more detail on it but if the GFS is right some people will be digging snow by Tuesday morning. Possibly as far east as @shuggee, East Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, western Borders and north-east of Dumfries & Galloway (roughly).

XC quoting me 9cm. We shall see - first of the season if, if, it isn't a 'sleety mix'.

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19 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Certainly nothing to get too downbeat about in respect of current outputs,

 

No, even a The NW flow will do the damage in 2 but more particularly 8-10 days time.for large parts of Scotland.

 

3 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The Firth of Forth creates a streamer at times, same as the Thames. The Forth-Clyde streamer is hugely effective, many of Glasgow's big snowfalls come from the east.

The funny thing is there is no long rivers on the E latitude from my location, but thin long streamer seem to reach here but never seem to get into Manchester, you would think they wouldn't even make it to the W of the pennines as there is some reasonable sized mountains in between.

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41 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Did the convection get all the way across from the East and give you a good dumping then last winter?

Got beyond Glasgow. Pic below is Greenock at sea level on 2nd March. Something like 40+ms of level snow from an Easterly.

I'm half way between Barrhead and Kilmarnock and got less than half that at home. I thought we had a lot for an easterly until I made it to work in Greenock.IMG_4151.thumb.JPG.98da2e1a73a5ff5609d234e912e2930f.JPG

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6 minutes ago, JamesM said:

Got beyond Glasgow. Pic below is Greenock at sea level on 2nd March. Something like 40+ms of level snow from an Easterly.

I'm half way between Barrhead and Kilmarnock and got less than half that at home. I thought we had a lot for an easterly until I made it to work in Greenock.IMG_4151.thumb.JPG.98da2e1a73a5ff5609d234e912e2930f.JPG

Cathcart Street?

Impressive for that part of Greenock to get much snow at all given the location.

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17 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Cathcart Street?

Impressive for that part of Greenock to get much snow at all given the location.

Yup. 

Got sent home from work the Wednesday lunchtime, didn't make it on the Thursday and this was the Friday. 

Sea level Inverclyde sees very little snow normally. Incredible few days. 

IMG_4150.thumb.JPG.426fdd17cc5feb5cf8c0522f9b225f93.JPG

 

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It does matter, but can be compensated for with very steep lapse rates in the mid level so get what you mean.

Feb 1986 was a good example of how convection can be picked up from the Northern North Sea. While most of the UK was very cold (sub zero CET) it was essentially dry. However Eastern Scotland and parts of NE England had average precipitation, most of which fell as snow. Locally here there were more snow lying days that year than in any subsequently until 2010.

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1 minute ago, Norrance said:

Feb 1986 was a good example of how convection can be picked up from the Northern North Sea. While most of the UK was very cold (sub zero CET) it was essentially dry. However Eastern Scotland and parts of NE England had average precipitation, most of which fell as snow. Locally here there were more snow lying days that year than in any subsequently until 2010.

There was a good dumping in the southern half of England as well but yes i take your point.

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41 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The Firth of Forth creates a streamer at times, same as the Thames. The Forth-Clyde streamer is hugely effective, many of Glasgow's big snowfalls come from the east. Glasgow is not that far from the tidal limit of the Forth, less than 30 miles.

Yep, absolutely and while it's on its merry way to Glasgow from the east, it drops off a fair load over my head .... definitely my favourite snow set-up with the correct orientation of flow. 2010 streamers were spot on! 

IMG_1479.thumb.PNG.f5e6df6e3cc6b29cd3b14ed8bacf7536.PNG

IMG_1475.thumb.PNG.3b95f06d83c91d219d572bc26f42bbf8.PNG

IMG_1476.thumb.PNG.45c2331f1c9c45ad01ee181be2a42bd4.PNG

 

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1 hour ago, edo said:

this picture is from langside drive 1987 glasgow 

i stayed near Aberdeen at the time and was off school for days, we had powercuts and thundersnow.... 

5912280195_a7e1cc24e9_b.jpg

I was in my second year of my HND at Glasgow Tech at that time, travelling in from just outside Airdrie every day. I'd either just gone back after New Year, or was due to, but I had at least a week off due to that snow. I remember it being quite epic. 

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Similar in Birmingham, over a foot where i lived with drifts up to my chest while walking to a closed school.

not very nice that nobody told you it was closed 😂

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1 minute ago, edo said:

not very nice that nobody told you it was closed 😂

Knew it would be - thats why i got into weather forecasting - hated school so learned how to read the charts on the countryfile forecast - it was my best ever that - heating completely busted - had nearly 2 weeks off, one of those occasions when i let my mom walk me knowing that it was unlikely to be open - never said a word, of course when i got there - the triple somersaults came out like i had scored a goal.

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1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

I was in my second year of my HND at Glasgow Tech at that time, travelling in from just outside Airdrie every day. I'd either just gone back after New Year, or was due to, but I had at least a week off due to that snow. I remember it being quite epic. 

Talking of Airdrie, here’s a photo from ‘87 of some hefty snow piles at Monklands Hospital (not my photo - I was not quite 7 years old at the time!)

reuse.php?id=427661&download=70fc16f1

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