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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019


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Hey guys, I seen some flashes of lightning looking over towards the mainland from Skye in the early hours. This was my first time visiting Skye and it was amazing and it wasn’t as crowded as I thought it would be. I am heading to the Aviemore area tomorrow, can someone tell me what the chances are for the the Aviemore/Inverness area for thunderstorms tomorrow? My data is slow so it’s hard for me to check, thanks ?

 

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@Kirkcaldy Weather I've just seen the forecast from convective weather in the storm thread, is this in line with your thinking re tomorrow evening? I've noticed you are pretty spot on with your forecasts, and I'm hoping south Lanarkshire is in the firing line. Thanks.☺

Edited by Mark H
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1 minute ago, Stormeh said:

Hey guys, I seen some flashes of lightning looking over towards the mainland from Skye in the early hours. This was my first time visiting Skye and it was amazing and it wasn’t as crowded as I thought it would be. I am heading to the Aviemore area tomorrow, can someone tell me what the chances are for the the Aviemore/Inverness area for thunderstorms tomorrow? My data is slow so it’s hard for me to check, thanks ?

 

I would say a pretty good chance probably evening time maybe around 8:30pm onwards to be on the lookout for cells developing toward that area but that could change so try and keep an eye on the radar if you can and probably quite a bit of lightning as storms further north probably more on the elevated side rather than surfaced based ? 

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2 minutes ago, Mark H said:

@Kirkcaldy Weather I've just seen the forecast from convective weather in the storm thread, is this in line with your thinking re tomorrow evening? I've noticed you are pretty spot on with your forecasts, and I'm hoping south Lanarkshire is in the firing line.

Hi thanks for the kind comments, I merely do the forecasts out of enjoyment and passion for weather, it is an ever changing scenario for tomorrow and nowhere will be guaranteed as is always the case but here is a quick draw up for tomorrow image.thumb.png.69a9feada6d4a6e4b2e25d76230e6ee0.png with the orange zones having less agreement within the models on storm development and the red zones having the highest chance of storm development with supercell potential especially further south in the zone, large hail, frequent lightning, intense rainfall with flooding likely and a tornado risk all threats especially but not exclusive to the red zone, Another concern having a quick look at the charts is that IF these storms develop after dark night time tornadoes COULD be a scary threat whereas slightly less so if during daylight as they would be visible so i would urge everyone to keep a close eye on the radar if possible and reports in here just in case.

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Very humid tonight and still 19.5c. Just noticed before sunset that the very strong southerly gale this morning with all the thunder and lightning had knocked down the two scarecrows in the neeps (or Boris and Donald as I named them three years ago when I made them). Hope it  is not  an omen.

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Thanks for the great posts and great screenshots of the lightning @Kirkcaldy Weather

I will hopefully have a better signal tomorrow when in the Aviemore area. I posted the other day about witnessing one of the best nighttime thunderstorms in Scotland while I was on holiday in Aviemore 3 years ago. A repeat again tomorrow would be amazing ? 

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No sure I really want to be pummelled with insane storms actually ??    Youz can come and sit in my shed to watch them though, if you bring me cake. Last big one we had melted my Sky box and router..

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Bonkers weather day ahead - chance of the all time UK temperature record going, local Scottish temperature records also and maybe some of the biggest thunderstorms any of us have ever seen! 

Take yer pick from some of these forecasts! ?

5A62E7D9-5ED9-402B-A286-6C62EB43D276.thumb.png.6c1fdb75061d0e352e1ce479f5ce7769.png

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Here's my take.

Storms likely to be more isolated across SW Eng, Wales & the central spine of the country. More organisation possible across SE/EA/E Counties but potentially severe and violent thunderstorms for Scotland with the potential for a tornado or two! Going to be another fantastic night if all goes to plan..

Convec Outlook.png

 

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Cloudy here.  I seem to be on the periphery of the varying thunderstorm warnings too but good luck to all!

EDIT - Just noticed the Met Office have amended the forecast area to include here.

Edited by howham
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38 minutes ago, howham said:

Cloudy here.  I seem to be on the periphery of the varying thunderstorm warnings too but good luck to all!

EDIT - Just noticed the Met Office have amended the forecast area to include here.

Noticed tat too. Should be home early afternoon so was considering making a start on cutting what will likely be a grass jungle after 3wks away. Will gladly have that plan curtailed by a thunderstorm though. 

Currently blue skies and 27C in the Central belt, with no hints of the potential severe weather to come. 

Edited by Ravelin
Don't type on phone in moving vehicle
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Most of the storm forecasts have everything to the east of Glasgow, but given Tuesday nights storms were forecast to have the worst in the west of Scotland from many outlets and they ended up in the east then anything could happen! 

Edited by Ross B
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2 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Most of the storm forecasts have everything to the east of Glasgow, but given Tuesday nights storms were forecast to have the worst in the west of Scotland from many outlets and they ended up in the east then anything could happen! 

Let’s hope so!

Netweather have pulled the severe box even further South.

2252C988-D310-4D40-8CFF-5DA0AD4F975E.thumb.png.a88dde768844b635b598694dc5c7bdc9.png

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

I do think @JoeShmoe and @CatchMyDrift for example will see some good thunderstorms.

Not looking at any more forecasts now - all about the radar later.

Best of luck everyone! (If you like storms)

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10 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Let’s hope so!

Netweather have pulled the severe box even further South.

2252C988-D310-4D40-8CFF-5DA0AD4F975E.thumb.png.a88dde768844b635b598694dc5c7bdc9.png

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

I do think @JoeShmoe and @CatchMyDrift for example will see some good thunderstorms.

Not looking at any more forecasts now - all about the radar later.

Best of luck everyone! (If you like storms

Absolutely, anything could happen. I can see why Nick has gone further south with that forecast, some of the parameters over NW England looking particularly severe. I'm driving through there later too.I don't fancy a supercell over the M6 or M74 as there are limited escape routes! 

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I am in Fort Augustus just now, heading to Pitlochry instead of Aviemore as we are going to visit Blair Atholl castle. We will be having dinner in Pitlochry and camp somewhere near there. The forecasts are very confusing and I guess anything is possible. Hopefully I will see something later ?

 

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Yes, the radar forecasts show the showers further east but perhaps petering out further north.  I still think Edinburgh/Fife will be the sweet spot.

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It's certainly warm. This station is a couple of miles away from me. The dew point & humidity suggest a Fohn effect from Cheviots:

1487990200_Screenshot_20190725-122106_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.32fcdfe209d7a382c07baaee44cfeb06.jpg

Only 4.9C short of the all time record at 12pm. Anyone want to place large bets against it? I think it'll fall short but not by much surely?

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My map from last night stays roughly the same although still that disagreement within the models on storm development in the SW and NE but the red zone still looks primed, I would say if storms fire before around 6:30-7pm a moderate - high chance of supercells but some models develop storms after dark say 9:45 onward then I think the focus would shift more towards elevated storms (although an elevated supercell could not be ruled out) the big hail chances look highest from the borders up through Edinburgh, Fife and up to about Dundee, frequent lightning and intense rainfall likely with any storms that form along with a moderate - high chance of flooding and wind gusts look highest in the northern section of the red zone on my map perhaps up around @Stormeh in Aviemore stretching up toward @Northernlights, still the best thing for everyone to do is keep a close eye on the radar and reports in here and on the storm thread and try and stay as safe as possible, just in case here are some tips on tornado and lightning safety 

https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/types-of-emergencies/tornado.html2. Move to an underground shelter, basement or safe room. If none is available, a small, windowless interior room or hallway on the lowest level of a sturdy building is the safest alternative. 

If You Are Outdoors

Seek shelter in a basement, shelter or sturdy building.

If you cannot quickly walk to a shelter, immediately get into a vehicle and try to drive to the closest sturdy shelter. Remember to buckle your seat belt.

Stay away from bridge/highway overpasses.

If strong winds and flying debris occurs while driving, pull over and park, keeping your seat belt on and engine running. Put your head down below the windows, covering your head with your hands and a blanket.

https://www.cdc.gov/features/tornadosafety/index.html

Avoid windows.

For added protection get under something sturdy (a heavy table or workbench). Cover your body with a blanket, sleeping bag or mattress. Protect your head with anything available.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/7-lightning-safety-tips-if-youre-caught-outside-during-a-thunderstorm/70002014

scary to see estofex mentioning the possibility of strong tornadoes.

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