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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Huntforsnow said:

@Mr Frost

Looks like mostly rain for our neck of the woods for days and days according to met office ūüė®

I think we will be alright - hopefully! 

Wednesday looks our best day currently (going by the Metoffice) but if the GFS 6z is correct then we have nothing to worry about! What a run - unbelievable! 

A9DD4A82-30E1-4959-9C65-3A6F2E256B91.thumb.png.ec2145d7ef8d96de39961cd048cb1bd5.pngCD008D2E-0FCD-4D4A-AD8A-66DB2DF54D2E.thumb.png.0be0b0c3f3d0c7b5e98ff359a5284a07.png091778EC-1389-4485-AE50-20A4F9ADAE55.thumb.png.c591136509ab0ea6aa771bbe1a642381.png86BB4350-E354-4853-B986-B10852EC841A.thumb.png.5ec780f745ba7df022425e73088617a9.png27227CA9-5E21-416B-8D22-7014543FB501.thumb.png.e81f18e5244b3915ce4de325cddf8dee.png7048CDCD-3ADA-4701-AD96-EFCF1577C3E6.thumb.png.119ac2de33cd07578d586677cb1a4b4f.png

Edited by Mr Frost

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@Stormeh¬†brilliant pics¬†ūüĎ欆ūüėĬ†¬† ¬† @ciel¬†not sure about an exact answer but I found this website on thunderstorms / lightning effects on electronics¬†https://surgeprotection.co.za/how-lightning-affects-electronics

@Mr Frost @Ross B I am also surprised by the thunderstorm warning for tonight / tomorrow, I can see the heavy rain for tonight but any CAPE looks to be further south and as for tomorrow I will post a map later but it looks like a slight chance especially for the east coast, eastern Fife and eastern borders but that looks to be associated with a convergence zone rather than tonight's rain so I guess its a case of wait and see. 

Still more runs needed but next week looks primed for heat / storms with 25 C + likely widely for us with some areas probably pushing the 30 C mark, latest GEFS temps for here which you can usually add a degree or two on *likely to change somewhat*   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=56.10878&lon=-3.16202&run=6&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

could be scenes like this *strong language*¬†ūüėā¬†

ūüĆ©ÔłŹūüĒ•

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@Stormeh¬†brilliant pics¬†ūüĎ欆ūüėĬ†¬† ¬† @ciel¬†not sure about an exact answer but I found this website on thunderstorms / lightning effects on electronics¬†https://surgeprotection.co.za/how-lightning-affects-electronics

@Mr Frost @Ross B I am also surprised by the thunderstorm warning for tonight / tomorrow, I can see the heavy rain for tonight but any CAPE looks to be further south and as for tomorrow I will post a map later but it looks like a slight chance especially for the east coast, eastern Fife and eastern borders but that looks to be associated with a convergence zone rather than tonight's rain so I guess its a case of wait and see. 

Still more runs needed but next week looks primed for heat / storms with 25 C + likely widely for us with some areas probably pushing the 30 C mark, latest GEFS temps for here which you can usually add a degree or two on *likely to change somewhat*   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=56.10878&lon=-3.16202&run=6&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

could be scenes like this *strong language*¬†ūüėā¬†

ūüĆ©ÔłŹūüĒ•

 

 

Brilliant post mate!

Yes - was thinking just heavy rain as well but who knows! Hopefully we do see some thunder and lightning overnight.

And just to add I have been up Ben Lomond a couple of times since Still Game ended...couldn‚Äôt help but think of Jack and Victor! ūüė≠ūüė≠ūüė≠

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Many thanks @Kirkcaldy Weather for the very helpful link.

I did have a search around the net, but most of the info I found was unintelligible (to me anyway:oldrolleyes: :oldlaugh:)

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Had a 3hr paddle down the Dordogne in kayaks this morning with daughter and son (wife chickened out, doesn't like wobbly boats). 

IMG_20190719_142027.thumb.jpg.8a153050ef6d3ea5601767cbaa2fa272.jpg

Not seen a spot of rain since I arrived in France nearly 2 weeks ago, and only one day, yesterday, where there hasn't been wall to wall blue skies. I'll try to drag some of the heat back to Scotland behind the motorhome when we return mid next week. 

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Posted (edited)

The 06z GFS would be almost record breaking for Scotland, with a gentle southerly breeze a forecast of 30C would probably be 32C or even 33C with a Fohn over the Cheviot or over the Cairngorns (for example):

1704872769_Screenshot_20190719-143356_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.165d5475f63b30f5298db1b1db06c3f1.jpg 

Edited by CatchMyDrift

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Another torrential downpour on just now certainly not forecast today. Just a reminder that rainfall today compared to fifty years ago is more likely to of the tropical variety than it was then.

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Hopefully those storms over Ireland grow bigger and make it over here. I have a feeling it might just be heavy rain by the time it makes it here. I would love to see an ¬†overnight storm ūüėĄ

It was exactly 3 years ago I captured these images while I was on holiday in Aviemore..

75538E20-8E0F-456A-8790-2D8B3E0EDAF5.thumb.jpeg.a6100ccf245952d5b283a014636b4160.jpeg

D85CD0E2-03C3-4FDD-AF33-E9D50571039E.thumb.jpeg.3aff3e8f092854b21818ef27e77dbddc.jpeg

 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Hopefully those storms over Ireland grow bigger and make it over here. I have a feeling it might just be heavy rain by the time it makes it here. I would love to see an ¬†overnight storm ūüėĄ

It was exactly 3 years ago I captured these images while I was on holiday in Aviemore..

75538E20-8E0F-456A-8790-2D8B3E0EDAF5.thumb.jpeg.a6100ccf245952d5b283a014636b4160.jpeg

D85CD0E2-03C3-4FDD-AF33-E9D50571039E.thumb.jpeg.3aff3e8f092854b21818ef27e77dbddc.jpeg

 

Yeah - those storms look tremendous currently! 

A837FD21-CC9F-4FBF-ADA3-3B9A36B3BC7C.thumb.png.c6c6623c0a1d812e99bc5d898caf64b6.png7A9D3858-CA91-43B3-A622-33299CDA3218.thumb.png.e6218342010b31b5f28ee2f31caa945c.png

Current track looks like taking them through South of Glasgow later but as you say...probably just rain once it arrives.

Hopefully they drift further North West and give me a lightning show. ūüėÄ

Edited by Mr Frost

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How’s Wednesday of next week looking? 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The 06z GFS would be almost record breaking for Scotland, with a gentle southerly breeze a forecast of 30C would probably be 32C or even 33C with a Fohn over the Cheviot or over the Cairngorns (for example):

1704872769_Screenshot_20190719-143356_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.165d5475f63b30f5298db1b1db06c3f1.jpg 

I'd put my money on Aviemore beating the record if it was to come to that - could even be here in Inverness if the wind stays southerly throughout! 

 

Lovely day here with a max of 21'C and feeling quite humid. Big shower about an hour ago though. 

Edited by NorthernRab

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Forecast map for tomorrow, 2pm - 8pm intense rainfall with possible flooding &¬†frequent lightning¬†image.thumb.png.971b0b9ebbf581fb339e9cc1f51605ac.png¬†hopefully @CatchMyDrift¬†finally sees something thundery¬†ūüėĬ†

 

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Posted (edited)

Watching attempted warm spells on the models is as painful as watching attempted cold spells. Why can't the blobby bits just come this way??

Edited by CatchMyDrift

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Unsurprisingly pretty much no lightning in the warning zone last night for Scotland.

There were some torrential rain showers though, as predicted by the UKV, so some form of yellow warning was definitely warranted. I guess a yellow warning is low chance! 

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On 28/06/2019 at 23:36, Hairy Celt said:

Same here, almost. As the haar finally cleared late afternoon, the temp went up to about 21C and has only dropped to about 17C in the last hour or so.  We went out for a walk after tea; muggins thought he'd need a jacket as well as a fleece and shirt.  Carried them for 4 miles!  Lovely evening to be out, then drank a little wine on the grass before heading in. Bliss.

Where's @Blitzen- this is her sort of summer weather!

Well, my reply is a bit belated because I am just, as of yesterday, back from my annual Kent holiday!   3 weeks this time. You will be pleased to learn (or not) that I am still breathing and currently looking as if I am enjoying good health, courtesy of the most amazing tan that I am sporting:oldp:  It never ceases to amaze me, the difference a few hundred miles makes weather wise between north and south on these isles!  3 weeks of uninterrupted sunshine and, at times, just a little too hot!

So... Are you still a peely- wally white then?:oldlaugh:

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Not a bad afternoon now after the rain last night sun cloud and a breeze quite warm too

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13 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Forecast map for tomorrow, 2pm - 8pm intense rainfall with possible flooding &¬†frequent lightning¬†image.thumb.png.971b0b9ebbf581fb339e9cc1f51605ac.png¬†hopefully @CatchMyDrift¬†finally sees something thundery¬†ūüėĬ†

 

Good forecast KW....currently a few distant rumbles through the steady moderate rain.

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36 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Well, my reply is a bit belated because I am just, as of yesterday, back from my annual Kent holiday!   3 weeks this time. You will be pleased to learn (or not) that I am still breathing and currently looking as if I am enjoying good health, courtesy of the most amazing tan that I am sporting:oldp:  It never ceases to amaze me, the difference a few hundred miles makes weather wise between north and south on these isles!  3 weeks of uninterrupted sunshine and, at times, just a little too hot!

So... Are you still a peely- wally white then?:oldlaugh:

I am sporting my normal two tone t-shirt tan. Arms and face are brown as anything while the rest of me is white. The brown bits are so brown I was asked a couple of weeks ago if I had "brown person heritage". Overall the weather this year has been wetter than average but it's been warmer than average and sunnier than average.

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I am hoping (nae praying) that some of that predicted warm plume weather down south will produce its dreggs up here come Saturday.(anyone know?)  as I haven't had a chance to catch up yet (KW?)  Hubby hits 70 yoa and we are having a party (or wake) the way he sees it!   It is so annoying, that down south, if you say you are having a bbq next Saturday, then you WILL have a bbq next Saturday!   Up here however, if you say in the morning you are having a bbq, by evening you are saying okay everyone we have to transfer indoors!:wallbash:

Wouldn't change living up here for the world though!:oldsmile:

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1 hour ago, ciel said:

Good forecast KW....currently a few distant rumbles through the steady moderate rain.

Thanks¬†ūüėĬ†have had plenty of heavy showers here so far but no thunder.

@Blitzen looks like the main day(s) for heat & possible storms for us will be Tuesday / Wednesday & outside chance of Thursday, as for Saturday still lots of uncertainty it is all down to the lower pressure out west and how quickly and deeply it develops and IF it pushes across the UK or meanders back into the Atlantic, I will keep an eye on it and update through the week.  

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@Kirkcaldy Weather & @Blitzen

Actually, my part-time neighbour is having a 70th bash next Saturday also! - starting with an afternoon bbq. Numerous family members and friends have been invited, many from afar. My back garden is serving as an overflow camp-site, apparently, and I have also been roped in to providing some indoor accommodation if required. :shok: So fingers crossed at least for dry weather.

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Posted (edited)

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Just now, Mr Frost said:

Tornado between Arbroath and Dundee earlier - anyone in that area hear about this today?

B561EC8D-8665-4D56-9306-BCA039B63945.thumb.png.4bf6f9d9e7d7f8fc7c30ce5a4381dfd4.png

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/tornado-hits-scotland-parts-country-18457836.amp

It has been reported locally though it was not confirmed as touching down.  We had lunch at Monifieth today and could see very ominous thundery  clouds to the East though it remained dry where we were.

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Well after posting yesterday about almost uninterrupted blue skies since I got to France 2wks ago we had 2 farliy short thunderstorms this morning (6:30am & 8am). Most of the rest of the day was cloudy, warm and felt very humid. The lack of sun was welcome as I have bright red shins after yesterday's kayaking. It takes a lot for my legs to get burnt, even without suncream applied, but 3hrs on the river yesterday managed what the previous 2wks hadn't. 

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Posted (edited)

Good Morning all!

Well it’s starting off nae bad here this morning but the heavy rain arrives this afternoon and does not leave until Monday evening - total washout! If the sun breaks through tomorrow afternoon anywhere else it is going to feel very warm! 

After that the GFS is giving most of us low 20’s to mid 20’s for Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday. (ECM and Metoffice the same) High 20’s in the North East, East, South and sheltered locations in the Highlands maybe? (Tuesday and Wednesday)

CFFAADE8-9570-4592-8FAB-1AC1C1B64024.thumb.png.67f47962f9171097706cadff0525b11a.png517027BB-885D-4612-8920-19B0188C5C60.thumb.png.64a852095192d3c3cb11520fb2cffce5.png

1132B60B-67B7-46D4-9FA2-8D842D3CE17D.thumb.png.a62c6077e0a1e3c30205be5e6e76d3c6.png

There is big thunderstorm potential (elevated) next week also - detail for that as always will be nearer the time. 

So lots of warmth, sun, thunderstorms on the go next week - looking forward to it! (Although not quite as hot for us as it once looked a few days back)

Hot start today across large parts of Europe - 30c in parts of Italy already! 

C50497C0-5436-40A9-B976-00DCD8EC81E7.thumb.png.530dd895ff7fa7c636a7d5a76629bfbf.png

Edited by Mr Frost

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