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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

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11 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Yes still plenty of snow chances over the next couple of weeks for us in Scotland 🙂 I just wish their was more posts regarding the models up here in the model forum. I understand that most members are from down south and as soon as the models downgrade for snow and cold further south then it’s winter over for everyone. 

I had a look through the snow accumulation charts from the ECM and GFS and they still show decent amount of snow to fall over Scotland 🙂

I think we are all looking for extremes Stormeh. So , given what was the forecast directions of attack , if the MT are banging on about snow for the southern extremities , it should by default equate to a snow fest up here (even if Scotland doesn’t get a mention).

a disappointing trend in the last 24 hours but it could equally flip back just as fast. And if not at least we have continued encouragement from the esteemed @lorenzo 

happy to live of scraps in the meantime .... sort of (brave face smiley whatever that looks like)

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I guess you are right @Serac, the charts did look great recently for deep cold and snow and I understand the disappointment in the MT. Hopefully things will flip back again on the 12z runs. Still plenty of chances for us, certainly better than what we have been experiencing since the start of winter 🙂

Great post by @lorenzo 👍

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Come Monday......

FB_IMG_1547908587189.thumb.jpg.01f45a636249b9790fef3cacec115e4a.jpg

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A cloudy day but at least it's staying dry and not windy. Interesting times ahead as we look towards next week although I doubt I will see any snow here we haven't even had any frosty icy days yet.

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Wasn't sure where to post this, but opted for the knowledgeable and friendly regional thread.😊

Probably displaying my total lack of knowledge on full view here, but I am really confused as to the extent of the stratospheric impact on the troposphere or vice versa.

For example, are the extreme conditions being experienced currently in Austria and Germany a result of the current SSW or due to discrete tropospheric dynamics? If the driving factor is SSW, what happened to the time-lag in downwelling in continental Europe? 🤔

 

 

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Cracking pics Ravelin - GFS 12z looking very good for NE Scotland..

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That was me just thinking it might be safe to get my hopes up about next week and it seems the models have taketh away.

Seems to be the ever elusive ten days time again.

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28 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

That was me just thinking it might be safe to get my hopes up about next week and it seems the models have taketh away.

Seems to be the ever elusive ten days time again.

Back in 2006, the Met office stated that the amount of snow setteling in Scotland had reduced by a third in the last 45 years.

Perhaps that trend is continuing, be it natural variation or climate change.

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Fabulous day here blue skies and sunshine and a maximum of 3c in the afternoon with frost digging in all day in the shade. Most of our non farming neighbours were round the farm for a walk in such calm quiet conditions.

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On a more positive note, if things go according to gfs p, the mild phase could turn out to be very short indeed. Not posting this on the model discussion thread as it would just annoy everyone in the south 😂

gfs-1-156.png

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1 hour ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

On a more positive note, if things go according to gfs p, the mild phase could turn out to be very short indeed. Not posting this on the model discussion thread as it would just annoy everyone in the south 😂

gfs-1-156.png

For us there's still plenty of promise, by also a lot of uncertainty. GFS 850 graph for the 12z in my location illustrates just how uncertain. Although Op, control & FV3 are all in the top half of the ensemble spread, that spread is massive from 24/25th onwards. There's still a lot of cold members, and the mean is cold and really hasn't warmed. 

graphe3_1000___2.7397_57.265_.thumb.gif.834de058e1c7c4c3b5a9d470d69241f2.gif

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1 hour ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

On a more positive note, if things go according to gfs p, the mild phase could turn out to be very short indeed. Not posting this on the model discussion thread as it would just annoy everyone in the south 😂

gfs-1-156.png

um thats the reason to post it 👿 

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Love viewing all the pics from around Scotland, but obviously my recent post is misplaced amongst other (regular) posts.

As an avid weather watcher and technical learner I absorb all the scientific input and conclude.

@lorenzo

Edited by ciel
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2 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Full sun here all day, and down by Carrbridge, where we went for a short potter...

....then across to Sluggan Bridge 1889482012_slugganbridge.thumb.jpg.e0c6c799806e8f897db1256ffb8969f0.jpg 

 

Had a lovely walk there on New Year's day, as is tradition (that or on Christmas day).

Did you drive past a muckle 'Yes' sign near the railyway station on the way up? Ma folk's hoose. Chip aff the auld block I am. 😉

Cairn's the best pub in the Highlands, but I'm biased. 

Edited by scottish skier
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What's that - 6 of them lined up at 60 hrs out..! that low sure is fond of the NE Coast line, churns away in there..

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Ciel wrt to down welling.. 'paint drip' expression of the slow progression of the NAM, from below u can see the obstacles since the SSW and the eventual connection to the trop. I think the initial arctic outbreak impacting Austria was programmed before / during SSW.

image.thumb.png.333e63f4d4fb12ff24d039e3ded48ac2.png

Edited by lorenzo
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39 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

GFS 18 shows that the models can get even worse.

What is this? September or January?

According to MetO the average max temp in Scotland in Jan is 5.3C. The chart you posted shows a range of 3-7C with small coastal pockets of 8C. Yes we'd love it to be colder, and snowy, but in reality that looks distinctly average to me. 

We have to accept that we have a temperate maritime climate, not a continental one, so even in Winter cold, snowy weather is not the norm. 

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Peeps, do you all realise there's potential for a bucket of snow tomorrow night?

Can't upload the charts, it's on the 18z GFS 🙂

 

 

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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Biggest chance of some serious snow is to the south-east of Glasgow. Easily up to 6 inches down the M74 somewhere, maybe more over the hills. The 00z Euro4 might put some more detail on it but if the GFS is right some people will be digging snow by Tuesday morning. Possibly as far east as @shuggee, East Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, western Borders and north-east of Dumfries & Galloway (roughly).

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Not a great outlook for the Scottish ski resorts this morning, very little snow being forecast for next week.

Friday next week, Scotlands temperatures should be back to average for the time of year.

Rain, hill snow Monday into Tuesday then a return to generally dry weather.

Hopefully this changes ASAP.

 

Edited by Sceptical

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