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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
31 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I agree about the plume on current output.

We have had another one of those days where it's 19C and it has been feeling very warm in the sun. The weather is noticeably different here, more settled but far more boring in winter. Having said that the difference between Glasgow and Inverclyde can be quite striking too in terms of rainfall, for example.

Agreed - I lived in Croftfoot (South side of Glasgow) most of my life up until last July. 

We moved here to Ashton, Gourock. 

301B7C4B-DF95-4548-AC4C-F16A34DED57A.thumb.png.436c34a52928cfb80840977baad9db6e.png

And as you say - it seems like a different weather world away from Glasgow.

I am a thirteen minute ferry ride away from Argyll and Bute and we are always on the boundary of whatever weather is passing through there also. 

Autumn and Winter has been fun here (if you like severe gale events and snowfall - the snowfall mostly due to numerous 100 to 350 meters hills within walking distance)

We are planning (99% confirmed) on relocating to Aviemore or the surrounding villages within the next two years so I am looking forward to the Winters up there! 

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
55 minutes ago, SW Saltire said:

(It’s a shame we lost the Scottish Politics thread as it feels like all of this discussion has gone - has it been resurrected? I take it i’m not missing anything here)

You ain't missing anything. We generally just don't discuss politics on here, mainly because the only thing more depressing than the Scottish weather at times is the state of UK politics. 

Weather the last few days here has been pleasant, but not what I'd term warm. There's been a few short, but very heavy showers passed by at times too. At least its feeling more like June, and hopefully the garden will start to respond accordingly. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

@CatchMyDrift some of the 06z GEFS for here (still time for changes but )  CAPE image.png.2794e3c9fbefe407624071c09ff61430.png image.png.6d65f0336dca63ab39234d06e9641355.png image.png.67667b79e94e4a6ff8f1c146dac90927.png image.png.b1cc561401689d18ceec6349ec84b0b6.png  image.png.d5efc3a043285f9c26c691476fcc2856.png 850's graphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.png.1f4f089fb9725518a81688e10abe1c4e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

Lovely anvil to my south IMG_20190620_154752.thumb.jpg.240f39db870fcd1c1db126243e9cb4c1.jpgIMG_20190620_154738.thumb.jpg.b7bc2c31c67814440394363ea0031716.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

12z GEFS still rolling out but a few getting the +20 850s into Scotland gens-3-0-180.thumb.png.2596bbb559cc2aef3be9b50114938bd2.png  gens-12-0-180.thumb.png.dd0057fc02c39f7c0edb1b5ab615ef68.png gens-13-0-180.thumb.png.c4856c39efd8d96c63b1e69d253eff45.png gens-0-0-180.thumb.png.62eaa17e1fff4561ed3ad061811764a7.png really does look like a fascinating spell coming up and fine margins with the lower pressure to the SW and the higher pressure to the north will make all the difference and the most intriguing thing for me is what effect the possible easterly flow will have as usually that would cool things down but with 850s that high and if it ends up being a slack flow it may not make much difference.  

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Big upgrade today on the latest GFS 12z for quite a large part of Scotland - next week looks tasty! 

C6268961-DE9B-4517-9EB1-514F9B69F80E.thumb.png.9c4047141ac10f610c2ee87ac20fc55a.png35410893-A7A3-4E47-85F1-8E1A32126AB1.thumb.png.f91ff6eabbbc9e6f616c39c9d63b2284.png

67C94A91-039C-4277-A542-01FA12D37127.thumb.png.193d9ea07d2c70bf5a5b045cb211a64a.png67BDA7B6-0AB5-402C-BB07-D8CA4FF0C829.thumb.png.cce4f8dcb3dd0da34c710c61c1322849.png

A63343B5-4B0A-48EA-8C95-977A9F05103C.thumb.png.82281a54dad462b3d2b30c9ec7228161.png

ECM 12z also fairly decent! 

1F11F241-10D5-4830-A4AA-D662AEC50A1E.thumb.png.3e4552f76bb68793cac5da3818d01eb6.png13553E1B-DF49-45E2-9E9C-C0E49DBDB328.thumb.png.a64fb326631239c62d2088381e845b86.png

B0596FE0-C58E-469B-B4B6-64B9F79A5160.thumb.png.a56b854c3f8fb6e8b38fd032d90a8479.pngB65F3FB2-1EBF-4232-A8EE-C69ED5A71707.thumb.png.d1e83a0fd419c1896485c2193553e1a2.png

Some serious heat on the cards for Central and East/Southeast England - could be looking at 35 degrees in spots if the charts stay the same! 

Also if anyone enjoys storm chasing get down South next week - big risk of supercell thunderstorms which is insane! Cape values are mind blowing.

32245800-E8F7-4462-9E6F-FA0C2F5F0EF4.thumb.png.a939da40c259420562aec48429e87a2a.pngED94D8B0-E7CF-40C7-9915-E0B5E7CF311F.thumb.png.3ef34fd2a8acae6cdf396108b2be3811.png

Next week looks memorable on current charts - it could also...all go tits up! We shall see! 

Something to look forward to at last for most of us on here! (Hopefully!)

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Sauchen, Aberdeenshire, 100m ASL
  • Location: Nr Sauchen, Aberdeenshire, 100m ASL

The last few days have been very serviceable.

Warm enough with max temperatures around 17c and a decent 50:50 mix of sunshine/cloud. 

Gusty winds during the middle of the day but start/end calm. 

And of course the obligatory heavy showers of rain, timed to perfection to match the return of the kids from school!  Mind you, minimises the watering needing done outside in the veg plot 

All in all good gardening conditions and infinitely better than the grey crud of the last few weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

As Quinach above similar weather here,sunshine definitely helping garden and had our first strawberries too. Neeps in the  field  liking  the better weather too ,can almost see them up and down the field in their rows..

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Today over by Fyvie was weird. Woken by heavy rain at 5, then ultra-sharp sunshine till about 10 - really startlingly clear, like I'd just got a new pair of specs type of focus.  Then a couple of gusty blasts followed by brief showers that had grown men running for shelter (that was fun to see, flab going wibbly wobbly, why do guys let themselves go like this?) then a mix of big clouds and sun.  It was only about 15C but was enough that most folk were down to 2 layers rather than 3.

Back from our evening walk at home in Fortrose now, watching the last colour on the clouds over towards @Northernlights.

I'm down to Edinburgh for the weekend, looks like me and the boys might get to sit out with our beers if the forecast is right.

@SW Saltire- I guess we don't agree about politics much but I think we might agree that our democracy needs refreshing.  There's been a couple of interesting radio programmes recently about this. I'd better shut up now.

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Highland Show ? @Hairy Celt  We are going on Saturday.Will catch up with @AuroraStorm when down. Get a politics and farming fix!!!!!

Edited by Northernlights
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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

I really miss the poltics thread, it was one of the few places you could discuss Scottish politics without a mass  *we hate the SNP* chorus. At least you lot were polite and listened to all views.

Calm sunny cold morning up here so far and the swallows are going mad. So is the cat - who seems to think fat Persians with wee stumpy legs can launch themselves into space  and catch birds through glass.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Tell you what the charts/models are giving me a sore head with regards to next week.

For example compare the temps from the latest GFS for my location and Inverness to the Metoffice...

634D651A-B3F5-4620-B7BD-2B2FB5535F5D.thumb.png.8c526385e46ca50749bbd14060df87bc.png7E247A92-A50D-45F4-B2FB-491C6B4D6008.thumb.png.75aaca8752af607b9279811f0ca60982.png

EECA8EFE-8818-4B17-8B22-5B0A6C8B0049.thumb.png.797ddad70783f74eb6db1b816ea6c4db.png6D7BF6D5-9722-4E5B-A04E-82AD43CFCC4C.thumb.png.c1e0ab7c248b586e4ef73ac4ca4b4106.png

One of them is going to be way off! Either the Metoffice don’t see the heat making it this far North or they are being cautious for the time being. 

Hopefully the GFS is correct for us all! It will be a very sweaty couple of days for @Northernlights on the farm if it comes off! Could hit 30 degrees up there! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Yes with all this talk of  a heatwave next week the current temperature of 0c on the summit of Cairngorm is quite a contrast. Currently breezy and  sunny but cool at 10c.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilwinning, North Ayrshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kilwinning, North Ayrshire

Il take that for beith

Screenshot_20190621-084612.png

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Happy Solstice everyone!

A third blue, a third white and a third grey here, but a reasonably warm feel. A sight better than the midsummer many years ago when my sister decided to come up for the weekend - it hammered down all day!

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Summer solstice means the nights will start drawing in and winter is just round the corner... mon the snaw.

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

2 GFS runs in a row bring seriously explosive CAPE/Lifted energy virtually scotland wide for Thursday. Could be interesting!

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
2 minutes ago, NUT said:

2 GFS runs in a row bring seriously explosive CAPE/Lifted energy virtually scotland wide for Thursday. Could be interesting!

This is Scotland - it'll get downgraded in the last 30 minutes and we'll all just get soaked.

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
1 minute ago, Hairy Celt said:

This is Scotland - it'll get downgraded in the last 30 minutes and we'll all just get soaked.

No doubt it be downgraded I agree but never seen that before. Whatever happens though Next week regardless is looking very interesting

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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Location: Motherwell

If Thursday comes off as it appears it might well do, this could be the best display this country has seen nationwide for as long as I can remember.  Haven't seen a really decent storm since May 2006 where I am (Motherwell area).  About time too.

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
9 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Can i just ask what is CAPE?

Convective available potential enegery, the higher the number the more energy there is for the storms to feed off effectively. High values can be a good indicator of large hail  Only thing is, GFS tends to inflate the values so it normally looks really high until the day before and if there is no trigger for the storms to form then high CAPE is useless. That's a very brief explanation, loads of science to it. 

Edited by Ross B
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