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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Fourth air frost - scrape scrape. -3C on the car thermometer by Blyth Bridge. End of week may be interesting....?! 

In Biggar yesterday for the Biggar Little Festival - trip to the gasworks. Loved it.

BIggar 2019.jpg

IMG_20191020_151409.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

I'll just pop this one here - becoming quite consistent over last five runs...

 

2019-10-21 06z GFS T+108 850s+ppn.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
5 hours ago, shuggee said:

I'll just pop this one here - becoming quite consistent over last five runs...

 

2019-10-21 06z GFS T+108 850s+ppn.png

I think its odds on for some hill snow at the end of the week, somewhere in Scotland. Just to illustrate how runs can change, just look at the ensemble graphs for my location, today's GFS 0Z and 12Z.

graphe3_1000___-2.7397_57.265_.gif graphe3_1000___-2.7397_57.265_.gif

The drop in the mean (red line) is huge. Probably change again next run, but I hope not. 

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Wow sudden change in the long range bbc forecast. suddenly down to mid single digit maxes... winters coming folks. i wonder who in here will see snaw first.. please be me.

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

When for bigsnow? I bet it's me and I don't want the stuff until hubby gets fixed. He's waiting to go into Edinburgh for a heart op. Last time he had a heart attack the neighbours had to turn out and shove the ambulance up the hill throw deep snow

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

@mardatha dont think its forecast but some of the higher up members could wake to something at some point. sorry to hear about your husbands poor health hope all gets sorted soon and he is back out with his snaw shovel soon..

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Maybe if he and the snaw shovel are oot of action then we'll get a deluge? 5 FEET OF SNAW??

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Car is back and im £250 lighter in my back pocket, poxy battery was dead too, well it was 14 years old. the mechanic said you do know you got all weather tyres on the front on that dont you? i had no idea, but upon inspection it does seem that the front set are indeed michelin cross climate and newish ones they look too. rears are just standard tyres. advice guys and girls shall i get cross climates for the rear as well. it is only a front wheel drive but unsure of what to do. cheers in advance.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
40 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Car is back and im £250 lighter in my back pocket, poxy battery was dead too, well it was 14 years old. the mechanic said you do know you got all weather tyres on the front on that dont you? i had no idea, but upon inspection it does seem that the front set are indeed michelin cross climate and newish ones they look too. rears are just standard tyres. advice guys and girls shall i get cross climates for the rear as well. it is only a front wheel drive but unsure of what to do. cheers in advance.

Given the epic, extremely snowy winter we are going to have, it might be an idea. Don't want to be unable to get to the shops to restock on beer. Seriously though, if the rears need changing I'd stick all seasons on them, if they don't need changing its a harder decision, depends how rich you are feeling. 

If Yr.no, aka ECM, is correct, never mind single figure maxes, I'm looking at several 5C maxes from this weekend onwards. Brrrrr. Maybe I should have bought more than the 3m2 of firewood we've just stocked up on. 

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

@Ravelin rears look ok for now still decent depth on them and once moved and settled back into old house i will be stocking up the dry store with rice pasta long life milk part baked bread rolls etc and i always have an emergency stash of beers and other stuff as the nearest shop is about 6 miles in Rothienorman and if the weather is that bad i wont bother trying, also have a neighbour with an all signing all dancing 4x4 off road beast that made TBFTE look like a dusting in feb 2018 so if worst comes to worst i will borrow that. 

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Shifted cows and calves to a fresh grass field for what is probably their last couple of inches of fresh grass for the season.Ground getting wetter after a night of rain and some showery outbreaks today. Very windy too but milder .Currently 10c

Tidied and trimmed herbaaceous border as young Mr.Northernlights was available to help, a very big job after a summer of massive growth. Filled two tractor buckets of clippings so just a bit of digging to do to before winter comes in. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

GFS 18z puts the likes of @CatchMyDrift  @shuggee and @mardatha back in the game gfseuw-2-72.thumb.png.cb1054fba5f02d0620ec4950f0620fa8.png 2 situations look possible 1- heavy precip moves up here with snow in places (more so the higher up) or 2 - heavy precip ends up in north / central England but the colder and less marginal air moves in quicker from the W / NW with higher chance of showers being more of snow especially for western and north western areas like @Mr Frost and @West Highland Storm (Fort William) still lots of chopping and changing to come, hoping to get a better idea when it is in view on shorter range models and will try to do an update. 

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

very dark and overcast here this morning. looks like a cool down toward the weekend but im not buying into the express headlines of Arctic blast to bring snaw to Britain's... just how many Britain's live on the summit of the Scottish mountains?

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
38 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Depending on if/where any snow hits I may have to take myself a wee trip just over the border to Kielder on Saturday. Deadwater Fell is an easy walk from Kielder Castle and tops out at 570m.

Now this is what I like to see! A man who goes snow chasing!  I was just about to post something similar. :santa-emoji:

@Kirkcaldy Weather I am thinking situation 2 but it is a close call at the moment!

Latest BBC take on it...watch as the rain moves into Norway and meets the very cold air. (Wildest dreams stuff for us at this time of year)

I am definitely eyeing up the local high hills or even a short ferry journey to a Corbett/Munro - hopefully heavy snow showers on the menu. 

Still only October as well...let the snow season commence! (Or I will take some sunny, cold and frosty days instead!)

Have a good day everyone!

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

radar has heavy precipitation head west to east by look of it... been a very dull day here in Crieff, this time next week the Big Snow family will be back home in Aberdeenshire.. cant wait to get home and get ready for a long cold snaw filled 6 months. Bring the SNAW!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
7 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

And then the 00z says ha ha ha no:

20191023_092710.thumb.jpg.f8959d1be1564a4f549d9ccc83791eac.jpg

mon the 06z!!! 

At least this is interesting

12z back in the game again!  so much drama and still October, gfseuw-2-66.thumb.png.1423b72fc1728331e4274d0f4dd29d50.png 1744245638_gfseuw-2-72(1).thumb.png.3e96ebc27e02a8090b6c58fd0974e444.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

All roads currently lead to cold/chilly weather on low/high ground...reads like an outlook for mid/late November.

Latest outlook from MWUK for the Southwest Highlands. (600 meters looks a decent bet for some settling snow on Friday/Saturday)

E426E94A-6269-498D-A16F-AE0E59EA63B9.thumb.png.a68a4b61b9d43a3b690c1d9467f3f15c.png554B0AB8-567A-453A-9886-E4B0FEE404AB.thumb.png.97e4acd5ced00f69b27742d7bdb3deb1.png7CC652D6-1E60-47BD-B7E7-AC65281E081A.thumb.png.9902c8f26aaf052a41a03437a8391fd4.png
 

Latest longer term outlook from MWIS.

8DFA24D8-C1AD-4BEC-8C93-9DFDA02D11DB.thumb.png.b38886b5b25366869bb559393c6ab04f.png

Finally the not to be trusted too much latest outlook from the Met Office...

134A62A2-283A-4EDA-9334-4A27BFCF0DC6.thumb.png.5b10f3d39f1604e4a7bb4aed5e353ace.png37F2BB72-DAA3-43A9-B753-E1A5E8637098.thumb.png.7be26369d4f92dbdce1f50a763141dad.png
 

I am getting that November/December 2010 feeling...:santa-emoji:☃️❄️ (No doubt I have just jinxed us all by saying that and we will now end up with a repeat of last November/December . )

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
14 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

All roads currently lead to cold/chilly weather on low/high ground...reads like an outlook for mid/late November.

Latest outlook from MWUK for the Southwest Highlands. (600 meters looks a decent bet for some settling snow on Friday/Saturday)

E426E94A-6269-498D-A16F-AE0E59EA63B9.thumb.png.a68a4b61b9d43a3b690c1d9467f3f15c.png554B0AB8-567A-453A-9886-E4B0FEE404AB.thumb.png.97e4acd5ced00f69b27742d7bdb3deb1.png7CC652D6-1E60-47BD-B7E7-AC65281E081A.thumb.png.9902c8f26aaf052a41a03437a8391fd4.png
 

Latest longer term outlook from MWIS.

8DFA24D8-C1AD-4BEC-8C93-9DFDA02D11DB.thumb.png.b38886b5b25366869bb559393c6ab04f.png

Finally the not to be trusted too much latest outlook from the Met Office...

134A62A2-283A-4EDA-9334-4A27BFCF0DC6.thumb.png.5b10f3d39f1604e4a7bb4aed5e353ace.png37F2BB72-DAA3-43A9-B753-E1A5E8637098.thumb.png.7be26369d4f92dbdce1f50a763141dad.png
 

I am getting that November/December 2010 feeling...:santa-emoji:☃️❄️ (No doubt I have just jinxed us all by saying that and we will now end up with a repeat of last November/December . )

remove that last bit from your post or we will all be snawless the entire winter.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

A pretty decent autumnal day here. A bit of a breeze but sunny spells and broken fluffy clouds. Temp up to 12C or thereabouts, probably the last time we'll see double digit maxes for a while if the forecasts are to be believed. 

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Fine day here with just a couple of showers in the morning,Two harvests going on this afternoon.Young Mr.Northernlights and contractor lifting a store of neeps 012.thumb.JPG.94f7f50873e88b16086d254bf63f143e.JPGfor ourselves and my neighbours cutting the last of their spring barley. 005.thumb.JPG.7c1e32abaab6b6a2c41ddeec3282211f.JPGMeanwhile I was digging in garden. Getting cooler all afternoon ,currently 8c

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Chilly here today - brisk wind and a feels like temperature of 7c. 

BF8531BE-299F-4DD4-8799-CACA45A93B5F.thumb.jpeg.9162b2dbae94576d352dbe95c9168d08.jpeg

A78ED8A5-05E8-4582-AC84-19DF362C7B2D.thumb.jpeg.7325519d98bbddb5a45c8c1235ecb8ec.jpeg

0DE9CE30-6C4B-4FAD-BF15-301C32D8F62F.thumb.jpeg.639d4824934f7e8b90817dcecac9cd1e.jpeg
Few heavy showers passed through earlier and more on the way tonight - more frequent just to my North over in Argyll and Bute. (Looks as though they are starting to turn wintry over high ground)

Lovely few days ahead - very seasonal with cold/frosty nights. 

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