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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Remnants of Dorian making it a blustery day today with a few showers coming through too. Was just having a read of some winter folklore, I had heard of most of them but one caught my attention which I hadn't heard of "The nearer the New Moon to Christmas Day, the harder the Winter." and this year the new moon is on Christmas Day/Boxing Day...  http://www.stormfax.com/wxlore.htm  also we were talking about the butterflies and geese not long ago which are on this list https://www.farmersalmanac.com/20-signs-of-a-hard-winter-479 some people think it is a load of rubbish but I think there must be some truth in at least some of them.

@Northernlights with you being a farmer are there any signs you look out for in the animals etc which could be the sign of a colder winter?

Animals often display a bigger appetite within one or two days of a storm in winter (air pressure changes?)but none that I know of regarding long range forecasts. The arrival of the geese at the begining of September this year about two to three weeks earlier than usual is probably a response to the snowfall in Svalbard and not a prediction of future weather although I could be wrong.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
5 hours ago, bigsnow said:

what site did you buy it from?

Got it on Amazon. Similiar price to other places but with free delivery. Good selection of malts on there to be fair.

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Another wet start to the day but is due to improve (with another chilly night on the way)

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Not to bad a morning here but that radar shows the rain moving in slowly so expecting a wet afternoon. 

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

The last photo there is a gem!

What is the doggy called Ciel?

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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
9 hours ago, shuggee said:

The last photo there is a gem!

What is the doggy called Ciel?

Jess, or sometimes by another pet name, Oag/Oaggie

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

Have done some calculations based on the ENSO forecast for December / January / February I done the CET in another thread but here are the Scotland mean temperatures. DECEMBER 2.7 C , JANUARY 2.3 C , FEBRUARY 2.4 C  and a list of DEC/JAN/FEB with those figures

DECEMBERS WITH 2.7 C  - 1962 :spiteful:

JANUARY'S WITH 2.3 C - 1954

FEBRUARIES WITH 2.4 C - 1965, 1944 & 1910

Not a forecast just to monitor and see how close / far away those end up being and purely based on ENSO and previous Scotland mean temp years. 

when I get more time I will try and do some for each section of Scotland East / West etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

14 weeks today and we will be leaving Crieff heading to the hills of Aberdeenshire. just hope the snaw holds off so we can make it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Is the forecast for neutral or a weak La Nina?

neutral between -0.5 and +0.5 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

What I love about this thread is we have members all over the place! North, South, East to West! It means when I am getting drizzle I can usually count on someone to post a picture of a sunny day! @CatchMyDrift being the main person with pictures of his rural countryside paradise of Tuscany...sorry Charterhall!

@ciel seems to enjoy lots of bright days also! 

It’s a bit grim here today - currently 14c and yes...DRIZZLE! 

Lovely cloud formation today which makes up for the drizzle. (Asperitas clouds)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/clouds/other-clouds/asperitas

89E2BC96-8E31-4C67-B41A-C073B01C5994.thumb.jpeg.e9378a1ec6472e80d96f30e9818a63cf.jpegDCA210DA-99F1-4776-AE8D-96EC57D0E846.thumb.jpeg.436d9c2644b40226406de095557a294f.jpeg

Looking forward to next weeks weather! Starts of chilly/dry/sunny spells on Monday with 14c and by Friday it’s dry/sunny spells at 17c. (Hopefully it stays the same - not a bad week at all just the odd shower!)

7312A0CA-2849-4292-B50F-D5D60C6BEEDD.thumb.png.4f4d058aade31d77a190ac09c3dd1db0.png

Have a great weekend everyone! 

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Very dull here today grey damp and a cold wind. may even have to put the heating on in September, never before have i had to do that.

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Wow, dry and bright here - not sunny but not dull either. Was 15c the last time I looked but that was early on. Got a huge washing out, blowing away nicely.

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

It has got a little brighter now but the wind is still blowing away. i did put washing out but had to bring it back in as it was getting blown off the dryer. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
7 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Just wondered as your years were a mixture on the websites I was looking at:

71733331_Screenshot_20190914-065419_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.943516fca3131d1ab19629cd7d112d34.jpg

What I done was take all the years with the DJF (DEC/JAN/FEB) periods that had between -0.5 and +0.5 then went onto the CET / mean temp lists took note of all the years Decembers, Januarys and Februarys mean temps then averaged it all out and then went back to the CET / mean temp lists and wrote any years DEC/JAN/FEB that had the same mean temp  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/ranked/Scotland.txt

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/Scotland.txt

Just done the same calculations for East Scotland and got, DECEMBER 2.2 C, JANUARY 1.7 C , FEBRUARY 2.0 C 

previous years with same mean temps

DECEMBER 2.2 - 1938

JANUARY - 1997

FEBRUARY - 1973, 1972, 1933, 1922 

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Posted
  • Location: South Falkirk 111m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny in summer, cold in winter.
  • Location: South Falkirk 111m asl

Signing in, in preparation for the winter. A bit dull and overcast here in Falkirk today but we've had a few cracking days over the last few weeks. Picked a bumper crop of Blackberries and made jam (for the first time ever). Hoping the winter weather will be a welcome distraction from the chaos/madness that is Brexit. 

DSC_0651.JPG

DSC_0652.JPG

DSC_0587.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell

It's been very windy here too, although not cold (around 16C) and with a brief sunny spell this afternoon.

@mardatha & @bigsnow I have had to rescue a few items of washing this afternoon which ended up pinned to border shrubs.:shok:

Leaves are beginning to fall too, in particular from the Whitebeam, which is one of the first to come into leaf and the first to drop them. I have not checked the plum trees, but I suspect there will have been a substantial windfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
6 hours ago, bigsnow said:

Very dull here today grey damp and a cold wind. may even have to put the heating on in September, never before have i had to do that.

Single figure afternoon max temperature forecast for us tomorrow. Going to be a shock.

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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
17 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Single figure afternoon max temperature forecast for us tomorrow. Going to be a shock.

Better get the stove cranked up. :nonono:

Not for long though, I hope.

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

in the house we are currently in its a gas stove, horrible thing it is and i cant get on with it, the new place has an open fire in one reception and a multi fuel stove in the other. looking forward to using them in the winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Fired up the woodburner in the lounge this evening, although strickly it wasn't really necessary. With it being a windy day, nights lengthening, although not exactly cold outside, it just felt like the right thing to do.

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Another cool dull windy morning here. the air certainly has that smell to it, winter isn't far away.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Morning all!

A long way out but next Friday, Saturday and Sunday could be warm and sunny...

GFS temperature charts below.

F7D0701E-AF4E-4A28-9344-87583968527C.thumb.png.daceb55abb64376a8e6c097c91a36512.pngFCF5DA2C-7BD6-4FCA-9571-6596146A290D.thumb.png.dd7383fffaaf16ddb32bd3393092a046.png

A4DD0E7A-51BA-4227-A9C9-BC09550C9F09.thumb.png.4d77fb24e3e84fb4de1f27e303ad31fa.png

ECM looks fantastic also! 

FC15C3B8-ED57-4C73-B01E-66F1ABC2F45E.thumb.png.a4a3575a8359bc27058fb3f6a2763a62.png896C748F-C7A9-429F-9BA9-2CDAFFB10DF8.thumb.png.678c2f7e2bc888388c7ea7f7294748a7.pngBF940D30-8DB0-46AA-BDCB-3078FF162BC5.thumb.png.856bfa6808d3ab4537187a14be06e4b5.png

Aviemore, SE Borders and usual hot spots looking at 20/21c next weekend! 18/19c here in the West! Not bad at all! 

@bigsnow maybe a wee 18/19c for you next weekend!

One to keep an eye on! ☀️ (Please let it be true!)

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

First of the ensembles with the -5 850's reaching here anim_pws9.thumb.gif.44cbcab7cadfff4312e38cc3cb2d0a5c.gif  anim_wxo1.thumb.gif.dfc5836e82bc5fd18675735004646266.gif  image.png.4cbadf29d76c32bdc05c4b131666b8d0.pngimage.png.859c6921d538074b35e9fe81c02915bb.png  

still some uncertainty with the MJO but hints of a possible phase 7 / phase 8 which would continue the pattern of higher pressure then some lower pressure to the NW similar to the current setup https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_ba7dbbed8aba2975e0ffbb352ba12a15.pdf SeptemberPhase7all500mb.thumb.gif.57a3dee77074732dcb570816d4362b98.gif SeptemberPhase8all500mb.thumb.gif.6593803e595746f7d629218d762a74d1.gif diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member.thumb.gif.c6b07bf68f06c609468bb5bb39efcb63.gif CFSO_phase_small.thumb.gif.a42def0d3826e7a2466e9ca5649ea7d0.gif ECMF_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.4dcf079c86ff9177052c196b2e3bc046.gif 

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
23 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Just done the same calculations for East Scotland and got, DECEMBER 2.2 C, JANUARY 1.7 C , FEBRUARY 2.0 C 

previous years with same mean temps

DECEMBER 2.2 - 1938

JANUARY - 1997

FEBRUARY - 1973, 1972, 1933, 1922 

West Scotland

DECEMBER 3.4 C , JANUARY 2.9 C , FEBRUARY 2.9

previous years

DECEMBER - 1966, 1938, 1919

JANUARY - 1972

FEBRUARY - 1944

North Scotland

DECEMBER 2.6 C, JANUARY 2.1 C , FEBRUARY 2.1 C 

previous years

DECEMBER - 1958, 1919

JANUARY - 1994, 1968, 1922

FEBRUARY - 1985, 1933

very interesting that Eastern Scotland comes out lowest overall which would obviously suggest easterly(s) throughout the winter. Guess we will have to wait and see but has certainly made me very interested in the possibility.

Same years that appear are

DECEMBER 1938

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=12038

"18-26th Dec., general snow, 1ft in east," https://durhamweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html

and FEBRUARY 1933

"Late February there was a Great Blizzard, for Ireland, Wales, South West England, Northern England, and the Midlands. Whipsnade recorded 2ft of snow, Harrogate and Huddersfield 30 inches, Buxton 28 inches! Very Snowy."

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/winter/winter-history

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