Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

[Quinach]

Bliss  

Currently 22c, unbroken sunshine and just a gentle breeze to keep you from feeling too hot.

More of the same please!

[Norrance]

Light cloud here this morning to give us a sunny but hazy at times afternoon. Not quite as warm as yesterday but a comfortable max of 21.9C with a pleasant gentle Southerly breeze.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

 

Just going to make my annual Dog Days comment about late summer - the time from late August into about mid September. Although September is offically considered autumn, it still feels in some ways it could be summer in terms of temperatures, however what is noticeable is the lower sun and the earlier sunsets. The shadows are already longer and it no longer feels summery in the sense that the light is starting to fade, even though we can get some very nice weather at times throughout September.

Usually at this time of year I begin getting that sense of anticipation for what autumn will bring, but not so much this year. I think the amount of rain we had in summer leaves me wishing that some nice dry sunny weather could be produced in the next month or so, the way in which I remember most Septembers. The dog days are usually for when I've had my fill of summer, but that isn't so this year. But you don't get to choose the weather, and it is an open question as to how September will play out. Autumn can wait a little while I think.

[Mr Frost]

Spot on @Glaswegianblizzard.

I am hoping September is a warm and sunny month but it looks to be a cool start if the current outlook stays the same! (September 1st below - big different from Sunday past at 27c)

October onwards I begin to search/hope for those frosty mornings/nights and crystal clear crisp days with plenty of sunshine! Also severe gales/Atlantic storms are always good fun around these parts - bit of excitement from my extreme weather enthusiast point of view and the upper Firth of Clyde whips up into a frenzy. 

I do hope September brings another warm/hot few days and not just a total bore fest of 14/15c with the odd glimpse of the sun and drizzle. 

It really has been a great Summer though - one I won’t forget in a hurry.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 24/08/2019 at 23:37, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

There will be some CAPE developing tomorrow but no models developing storms due to lack of a trigger, next threat of storms could be Tuesday night / Wednesday morning with the possibility of some fronts trying to move in from the west.

I will have a look through tomorrow to see if anything changes but looks to me like the risks for storms tomorrow will be two zones with models being in disagreement, zone 1 is somewhere in the North / North east of England although CAPE values are not as good in this area but a few of the models agree on some precip in that area tomorrow afternoon / evening and zone 2 would be somewhere down toward Lincolnshire with much better CAPE but less models showing precip, I dont see anything thundery for us but should the storms develop in the north / north east of England they may clip somewhere in the eastern borders and extreme east coast  but it just doesn't scream thunderstorms up here unfortunately looking at the charts.

[howham]

Another lovely day here.  Currently 20.3C.  I see there is another yellow warning for thunderstorms and radar forecast shows some showers moving in here around 9pm so we shall see.  No hogging them again Fife/Edinburgh!

[Mair Snaw]

Some really heavy stuff moving up toward the borders... you guys and girls are about to get a soaking.

[Richard Taylor]

It does have the feeling here of possible action later, some quite dark clouds interspersed with bright areas - but the sun ain't sunny now. 

[Mair Snaw]

This little lady had her first groom today and now the rain has come in she doesn't fancy her evening walk.. apparently she doesn't want her hair doo ruined..

[Richard Taylor]

First bursts of heavy rain now - radar looks quite colourful to our south. No lightning/thunder observed/heard yet. 

[howham]

Looks like some sferics around Montrose.

[howham]

Usual story here, rain petering out as it reaches here.

[Richard Taylor]

Sounds like the rain off now - no sferics on this band.

[101_North]

Working away again this week and been hot in Luxembourg hitting the low 30's last few days. Similar tomorrow. Like a few others have said I'm looking forward to some settled autumn weather. I love the sun but honestly heat is over rated. I love the option of throwing on a jacket if it's chilly! Having to head to work in sensible clothing in this heat can wibble off

[Mair Snaw]

Is that summer done then? if so a quick run into winter is what i'm after. wont be long before we can start to compare ice and snaw in the northern hemisphere with seasons gone by. then we are into silly season with the long range guys and girls giving their thoughts only to get shot down when folk fail to understand that the members in here do not control the weather etc. then its the M4 barrier and the it's all a bit too marginal. Winter 19/20 i cant wait. 

[101_North]

4 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I don't think summer is done, it's never that simple. This morning's ECM and GFS 00z runs are suggesting high pressure influencing our weather in 8-10 days time with a classic settled September spell. 18C-20C every day for a week or more under high pressure would still feel very decent.

I am also looking forward to winter. It can't be as bad as last winter with almost no snow here at all. The only proper snow we had was in March and that only lasted a few hours. Wishing for snow is my version of crystal meth so bring it on.

Last winter was a lemon show! I couldn't handle a repeat. Depression would set in! 

[Northernlights]

Its actually good to see a dampish morning  to do paperwork as been manic on the farm making late very good  hay,weaning cows and calves and loading grain.

Currently overcast and 16c

[Mr Frost]

Great thunderstorm forecast @Kirkcaldy Weather - spot on for the parts of England you mentioned. (Supercell near County Durham)

As @CatchMyDrift mentioned above - the models/charts are showing exactly what I am personally hoping/wishing for! 

If I can’t get 25c+ (which is obviously rare for us in September) I’ll take 18c to 20c all day long.

Very jealous of @101_North in the low 30’s Celsius!

I really hope this outlook becomes reality - snapshot of latest GFS run which has us warm and settled from September 6th until the end of the run. 

With regards to Winter and in our current climate...it would not surprise me at all if we set new hottest temperature records for December and January! 

Last Winter was decent here for low ground (late Winter) - locally great above 150 meters as is usually the case. 

The snow hunt starts for me on November 1st - until then give me a warm/settled September and a chilly or mild dry and sunny October with a few severe gale events thrown in!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Great thunderstorm forecast @Kirkcaldy Weather - spot on for the parts of England you mentioned. (Supercell near County Durham)

With regards to Winter and in our current climate...it would not surprise me at all if we set new hottest temperature records for December and January! 

Last Winter was decent here for low ground (late Winter) - locally great above 150 meters as is usually the case. 

The snow hunt starts for me on November 1st - until then give me a warm/settled September and a chilly or mild dry and sunny October with a few severe gale events thrown in!

Thanks  played out pretty much as I expected with the 2 zones of storms and some intense ones around Lincolnshire like I mentioned 

 

 

On 26/08/2019 at 23:12, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I will have a look through tomorrow to see if anything changes but looks to me like the risks for storms tomorrow will be two zones with models being in disagreement, zone 1 is somewhere in the North / North east of England although CAPE values are not as good in this area but a few of the models agree on some precip in that area tomorrow afternoon / evening and zone 2 would be somewhere down toward Lincolnshire with much better CAPE but less models showing precip, I dont see anything thundery for us but should the storms develop in the north / north east of England they may clip somewhere in the eastern borders and extreme east coast  but it just doesn't scream thunderstorms up here unfortunately looking at the charts.

I would prefer to see cold records being broken in December and January please , last winter was as far away from "decent" as you could get for here and quite a few of us so you got lucky @Mr Frost and my snow / cold hunt also starts on 1st November. Nice to see some cooler charts starting to appear now    would be nice to see some Autumn frosts and possibly some wintry showers for the mountains and high hills. Cooler air moving in through the weekend and start of next week   

 

5 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I am also looking forward to winter. It can't be as bad as last winter with almost no snow here at all. The only proper snow we had was in March and that only lasted a few hours. Wishing for snow is my version of crystal meth so bring it on.

This was my total snow for all of last winter  think @101_North summed it up nicely  

 

 

5 hours ago, 101_North said:

Last winter was a lemon show! I couldn't handle a repeat. Depression would set in! 

My list for  this year is simple     Snow Nonstop All Winter  

[Mr Frost]

50 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I would prefer to see cold records being broken in December and January please , last winter was as far away from "decent" as you could get for here and quite a few of us so you got lucky @Mr Frost and my snow / cold hunt also starts on 1st November. 

Agreed about December and January! 

It was a late start to Winter 2018/19!

First snowfall didn’t arrive on the hills/mountains until mid December around here and then we had my favourite wind direction in Winter arrive packing a punch on numerous occasions through January and February. (north-westerly!)

At sea level we had quite a few dustings but up on the hills/mountains it was a different story as expected.

That’s put me right in the mood - forget my earlier posts...bring on the snow! 

Edited August 28, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Mair Snaw]

Some rain about for many of us today and then the weekend looks very wet indeed.

[101_North]

On 16/08/2019 at 14:27, CatchMyDrift said:

Where are you pitching your tent? Just being nosy now

Missed this earlier! I salute your nosiness. We went to Ruberslaw between Hawick and Jedburgh. Cracking little campsite. 

[101_North]

On 16/08/2019 at 16:23, bigsnow said:

Anybody in here know much about a village called Tarbrax? all i know is its 300m asl. 

It's 20mins out from me but a world of difference in terms of snow due to the height. Couple of kids in our local primary school live out that way in Auchengray and they get a fair bit of snow every winter. No idea what the Tarbrax itself is like as I've never ventured off the A70 - looks remote and as someone else mentioned is probably a bit 'end of the road' - some really great scenery nearby though - I love the A70 from our house to Ayr - lovely views. And Edinburgh is only a 40min drive away. 

There was someone from from Tarbrax who used to post on here but I can't remember their username sadly. They were always reporting snow when Currie/Balerno had sleety pish/rain.

Edited August 29, 2019 by 101_North

[mardatha]

Not been Tarbrax for many years but it used to have a name for being very backward/boonies type of place. Think backwoods Louisiana... But it is right on top of a hill..

[Mair Snaw]

Looking like a really nice few days to come. after this long hot dry summer we need a bit more rain.