Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

a skew T chart to save for historic references (rare like the Beast From The East charts) Edinburgh 6pm tomorrow yes that is over 2000 CAPE!  

[Stormeh]

Thanks for the great posts and great screenshots of the lightning @Kirkcaldy Weather

I will hopefully have a better signal tomorrow when in the Aviemore area. I posted the other day about witnessing one of the best nighttime thunderstorms in Scotland while I was on holiday in Aviemore 3 years ago. A repeat again tomorrow would be amazing  

[mardatha]

No sure I really want to be pummelled with insane storms actually     Youz can come and sit in my shed to watch them though, if you bring me cake. Last big one we had melted my Sky box and router..

[Mark H]

A level 2 for SE Scotland from Estofex.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2019072606_201907250721_2_stormforecast.xml

[Mr Frost]

Bonkers weather day ahead - chance of the all time UK temperature record going, local Scottish temperature records also and maybe some of the biggest thunderstorms any of us have ever seen! 

Take yer pick from some of these forecasts!

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Here's my take.

Storms likely to be more isolated across SW Eng, Wales & the central spine of the country. More organisation possible across SE/EA/E Counties but potentially severe and violent thunderstorms for Scotland with the potential for a tornado or two! Going to be another fantastic night if all goes to plan..

 

[JoeShmoe]

36 minutes ago, Mark H said:

A level 2 for SE Scotland from Estofex.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2019072606_201907250721_2_stormforecast.xml

Thats a tornado warning ! crikey !

[howham]

Cloudy here.  I seem to be on the periphery of the varying thunderstorm warnings too but good luck to all!

EDIT - Just noticed the Met Office have amended the forecast area to include here.

Edited July 25, 2019 by howham

[Mr Frost]

Seriously hot down South already - incredible temperatures.

20c here currently.

[Ravelin]

38 minutes ago, howham said:

Cloudy here.  I seem to be on the periphery of the varying thunderstorm warnings too but good luck to all!

EDIT - Just noticed the Met Office have amended the forecast area to include here.

Noticed tat too. Should be home early afternoon so was considering making a start on cutting what will likely be a grass jungle after 3wks away. Will gladly have that plan curtailed by a thunderstorm though. 

Currently blue skies and 27C in the Central belt, with no hints of the potential severe weather to come. 

Edited July 25, 2019 by Ravelin
Don't type on phone in moving vehicle

[Ross B]

Most of the storm forecasts have everything to the east of Glasgow, but given Tuesday nights storms were forecast to have the worst in the west of Scotland from many outlets and they ended up in the east then anything could happen! 

Edited July 25, 2019 by Ross B

[Mr Frost]

2 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Most of the storm forecasts have everything to the east of Glasgow, but given Tuesday nights storms were forecast to have the worst in the west of Scotland from many outlets and they ended up in the east then anything could happen! 

Let’s hope so!

Netweather have pulled the severe box even further South.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

I do think @JoeShmoe and @CatchMyDrift for example will see some good thunderstorms.

Not looking at any more forecasts now - all about the radar later.

Best of luck everyone! (If you like storms)

[Ross B]

10 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Let’s hope so!

Netweather have pulled the severe box even further South.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

I do think @JoeShmoe and @CatchMyDrift for example will see some good thunderstorms.

Not looking at any more forecasts now - all about the radar later.

Best of luck everyone! (If you like storms

Absolutely, anything could happen. I can see why Nick has gone further south with that forecast, some of the parameters over NW England looking particularly severe. I'm driving through there later too.I don't fancy a supercell over the M6 or M74 as there are limited escape routes! 

[Stormeh]

I am in Fort Augustus just now, heading to Pitlochry instead of Aviemore as we are going to visit Blair Atholl castle. We will be having dinner in Pitlochry and camp somewhere near there. The forecasts are very confusing and I guess anything is possible. Hopefully I will see something later

 

[howham]

Yes, the radar forecasts show the showers further east but perhaps petering out further north.  I still think Edinburgh/Fife will be the sweet spot.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

My map from last night stays roughly the same although still that disagreement within the models on storm development in the SW and NE but the red zone still looks primed, I would say if storms fire before around 6:30-7pm a moderate - high chance of supercells but some models develop storms after dark say 9:45 onward then I think the focus would shift more towards elevated storms (although an elevated supercell could not be ruled out) the big hail chances look highest from the borders up through Edinburgh, Fife and up to about Dundee, frequent lightning and intense rainfall likely with any storms that form along with a moderate - high chance of flooding and wind gusts look highest in the northern section of the red zone on my map perhaps up around @Stormeh in Aviemore stretching up toward @Northernlights, still the best thing for everyone to do is keep a close eye on the radar and reports in here and on the storm thread and try and stay as safe as possible, just in case here are some tips on tornado and lightning safety 

https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/types-of-emergencies/tornado.html2. Move to an underground shelter, basement or safe room. If none is available, a small, windowless interior room or hallway on the lowest level of a sturdy building is the safest alternative. 

If You Are Outdoors

Seek shelter in a basement, shelter or sturdy building.

If you cannot quickly walk to a shelter, immediately get into a vehicle and try to drive to the closest sturdy shelter. Remember to buckle your seat belt.

Stay away from bridge/highway overpasses.

If strong winds and flying debris occurs while driving, pull over and park, keeping your seat belt on and engine running. Put your head down below the windows, covering your head with your hands and a blanket.

https://www.cdc.gov/features/tornadosafety/index.html

Avoid windows.

For added protection get under something sturdy (a heavy table or workbench). Cover your body with a blanket, sleeping bag or mattress. Protect your head with anything available.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/7-lightning-safety-tips-if-youre-caught-outside-during-a-thunderstorm/70002014

scary to see estofex mentioning the possibility of strong tornadoes.

[Tempest]

Hope my area is easterly enough  to see these storms

[Mair Snaw]

To hot, horrible hate it. 

[SW Saltire]

Currently 28c here. Very very humid, the air is like ‘thick’

Safe to say that was one of the worst sleeps off nightshift I’ve had. Least i’m now off for 4 thankfully

[RedShift]

27.9°C in nearby Stirling. Actually quite a refreshing southeasterly breeze here. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

TORRO tornado watch 

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2019/005

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 13:55BST on Thursday 25th July 2019

Valid from/until: 13:55 - 23:59BST on Thursday 25th July 2019 for the following regions of the
United Kingdom & Ireland:

Parts of E Wales

Parts of the Midlands

N & E England

S and E Scotland

THREATS
Tornadoes, perhaps strong; hail to 60mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Scattered elevated thunderstorms are initiating over Herefordshire and these will move quickly north, with a risk of becoming severe in the next hour or so as they become more surface-based. Other storms are likely to form over parts of the Midlands and N England, all moving north at around 40mph. Shear will be sufficient for storm organisation, including supercells - any supercell would take more of a NNE track. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly high, especially later this afternoon/early evening - enhancing the tornado risk with any supercell which can develop. There is a small chance of a strong tornado, given the shear/instability parameter space.

Large hail is also likely with any supercell which can form, perhaps 40-60mm diameter.

Other thunderstorms are forming near Hitchin and will also move N or NNE, perhaps becoming severe with attendant risks as above.

It should be noted that, as always, many places will miss the storms entirely - overall, the highest risk of the hazards mentioned above appears to be over parts of the N Midlands and N England.

Forecaster: RPK

 

 

[A Winter's Tale]

Quite remarkable weather. 29C at Glasgow airport only the 3rd time in over 20 years (last June had two days of 29C or more). Might still hit 30 which would be incredible though the all time record is unlikely. Quite astonishing weather in Se England and other parts of Europe with records going. It does make you wonder what it will take to beat the Scottish record. It's much harder to get temperatures above 90f here than jt is further south- it would require an exceptional set up. With the effects of climate change evident in record breaking temperatures it seems it's only a matter of time before a new record is set. I wonder how hot it can possibly get in the right set up - i would imagine we could get close to 35C.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

11 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

We've picked up an easterly breeze with a resultant fall in temp to 27C so it's curtains for anything super hot.

Cell moving towards you soon not sure if it will turn thundery yet, seems to be picking up from wales and NW England, you may have a view of the cell soon to your SW

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Lot of high level cloud about so there is mid air instability so Storms will develop later on. Met Office say it’s to remain dry for Glasgow other forecasts do say storms.

[NUT]

The clouds brewing nicely here it's HOT out there! Hopefully areally good storm on the way we need it 

[rossco89]

In East Ayrshire here. Desperately hoping we get a good lightning show later on after my disappointment on Tuesday night. All it done was tease me with faint distant flashes.