Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

14 hours ago, A Winter's Tale said:

It appears we could be in for a lively night. Most of the more memorable storms I've experienced were before I joined netweather - although last month and last year provided some storms but nothing on the scale on events like May 2006 - and as a result my storm knowledge is incredibly limited. I'm more curious about storms than I used to be but I'm not the biggest enthusiast of storms and still a little apprehensive about the threats they pose - though I do like spectacle of watching of lightning (especially from a distance). I have no idea what to expect tonight - I suspect there'll be an hour or two of heavy rain and some rumbles of thunder but nothing too severe. Past experience would suggest storms either pass to the east or west or lose their energy before reaching here. I hope to see some lightning but would rather not have experience anything severe - at least not overhead. Talk of tornado potential is exciting if a little disconcerting and I don't quite understand the nature of this set up and what mechanisms conducive to tornadic activity and other storm phenomena - I'm still grasping what terms like elevated storms or MCS mean. It would be great if some more knowledgeable members can explain what could of set up we're in, how it compares to past events and what conditions to expect.

It's certainly going to be interesting to see how the next few hours pan out.

Firstly I am no expert in storm forecasting but I do enjoy studying the charts and doing forecasts with my passion for weather. I mentioned the risk for possible tornadic activity in the orange zone in my map for a few reasons, the threat existed for cells separate from the main activity further east (which looked like merging into a possible MCS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoscale_convective_system https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/thunderstorms/types/ which looks like what happened) an active jet stream at 300hpa over the region in the orange zone  and areas of vorticity at different levels and also some charts from lightningwizard showed potential for some areas of rotation within these storms https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/vorticity/vorticity.html however like some models showed storms failed to organize (possibly due to the trough being further east than first thought) 

And tomorrow holds the potential for surfaced based storms as well as elevated storms, with surfaced based storms posing a greater threat of severe weather (larger hail, tornadoes etc than elevated which tend to be more lightning focused (as last night showed here) https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/thunderstorm_stuff/Thunderstorms/thunderstorms.htm  https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/thunderstorm_stuff/elevated_convection/elevated_convection.html  http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints3/729/ SBCAPE = surfaced based - MUCAPE = elevated / most unstable. Other things like CIN https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convective_inhibition basically a cap / lid on the atmosphere and possible convergence zones https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convergence_zone (a possible thunderstorm trigger) also need to be taken into consideration when trying to forecast storms.

[howham]

Looks like Edinburgh/Fife will get clobbered again tomorrow.  We're not in the yellow warning area here but text forecast mentions isolated thunderstorms so...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

A few screenshots from a few of my vids still have lots to go through so will put more up when I get them

[Norrance]

Warm and sticky here just now at 22C, down from a max of 23.5C compared with max of 25C yesterday. Storms last night gave constant thunder for a time but none directly overhead. Closest I noticed was 7 seconds between the flash and the thunder which is a bit over 1 mile away iirc.

[SW Saltire]

30 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Squint carefully, this is suggesting 30C+ in some parts...

Do we have any confirmation on what the highest ‘min’ was last night in Scotland?

Aye not record breaking (don’t think we’re beating 32.8c at an official site) but pretty toasty.

Quite glad we’re not hitting high 30s. I’m off nightshift again so not going to be a fun sleep 

[mardatha]

Am I getting more thunder and rain tomorrow or a nice hot sunny day?? I have to know!

[SW Saltire]

37 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

What's 32.8C when it's at home? Sorry for being rude...I think you mean 32.9C?

I think tomorrow could be close to beating the record, probably close but no cigar. Usually the Euro4 charts are a degree or two down on the actual maximum as it's a 3pm chart and the warmest part of the day at this time of year is normally 4.30pm-5.30pm. 

As for the highest min, Prestwick, Glasgow Airport & Bishopton seem to have recorded 19C which were the highest lows I could find. I think the record was 20C?

Nope. The July record from 1908 which was 32.8c in Dumfries.

You’re referring to the 2003 all time record of 32.9c which was in Greycook in the borders.

 

Yeah Min record is 20c odd so fair enough. Tbh this set up isn’t that great for Scotland (excluding the far East) 

[howham]

Best week of summer here, easily. Currently 23.1C.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

@CatchMyDrift there is a 30 not too far from you, other models have the hot spot around the Glasgow area with 28 +  @mardatha still an ever changing situation but you might be in a good spot as it looks like the uplift from the hills will help initiation with the western extent perhaps being somewhere around Glasgow / @Mr Frost's house before they push east 

[NUT]

Bring it on tomorrow. Could be the most interesting day of weather UK wide potentially what with the UK record bring broken (don't think the scottish record will go) but the UK all time could go and at the same time we might get some tasty humdingers of thunderstorms up here.....................very tasty day indeed whatever way you look at it

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Nice sunset in the distance here 

[NUT]

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-25&fbclid=IwAR2TolS66SxSPVFO65w-nm2YUl-A0qc8jMajSNKqAUTlXWBhTow22ZHnP3o

A red HIGH in Scotland. Interesting............................

[Ross B]

Ooo that's basically the M74 corridor which I'll be driving up tomorrow evening.. Dashcam will be on 

[Mr Frost]

Seriously considering heading through to Edinburgh after work tomorrow - it looks primed for some severe thunderstorms. (Temperature there could reach 31c)

@Kirkcaldy Weather We both know I am going to completely miss out on this while you, parts of the Borders and Edinburgh get absolutely pummelled with insane storms!

North/South Lanarkshire looks a decent bet also. (Not so sure about Glasgow area)

Think I am a bit too far North West for anything but it will be all about the good old radar watching.

Lets all get a good night sleep tonight - could be another very late one tomorrow night! (Absolutely shattered after last night )

Edited July 24, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

some more screenshots from another of my vids (will go through the rest tomorrow) 

@Mr Frost short range models are chopping and changing positions of storms but my forecast area would probably be similar to that of convective weather (havent studied the charts overly will do a forecast tomorrow) but as mentioned a real chance of some supercells tomorrow which sounds crazy to say for Scotland and hopefully nothing too severe on the tornado front!

[howham]

Surely these will move NE as the night goes on?!

[Mr Frost]

13 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@Mr Frost short range models are chopping and changing positions of storms but my forecast area would probably be similar to that of convective weather (havent studied the charts overly will do a forecast tomorrow) but as mentioned a real chance of some supercells tomorrow which sounds crazy to say for Scotland and hopefully nothing too severe on the tornado front!

Some nice shots there mate!

Tomorrow looks better than last night - especially if you are a fan of approaching storm structures! Severe thunderstorms/Supercells look as though they will be kicking off about 19:00/20:00 and with daylight/clear sky’s beforehand it could make for some extremely glorious pictures/videos.

I am getting excited for everyone in the high/severe risk zone - jammy gits!

Edited July 24, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Mr Frost]

3 minutes ago, howham said:

Surely these will move NE as the night goes on?!

100% Howham - hopefully not the same route as last night for you though!

Edited July 24, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Some nice shots there mate!

Tomorrow looks better than last night - especially if you are a fan of approaching storm structures! Severe thunderstorms/Supercells look as though they will be kicking off about 19:00/20:00 and with daylight/clear sky’s beforehand it could make for some extremely glorious pictures/videos.

I am getting excited for everyone in the high/severe risk zone - jammy gits!

Thanks  

yes the only thing lacking here has been storm structure as it has either been dark or last months storms were shrouded in high level cloud so hopefully a nice structured storm moves near for some pics, the big storm last night did have some inflow and scud I thought a funnel was developing at one point but pretty sure it was scud, even I am apprehensive about the risks tomorrow and just want to remind everyone to stay safe and dont risk it trying to get lightning / possible tornado shots!

[Stormeh]

Hey guys, I seen some flashes of lightning looking over towards the mainland from Skye in the early hours. This was my first time visiting Skye and it was amazing and it wasn’t as crowded as I thought it would be. I am heading to the Aviemore area tomorrow, can someone tell me what the chances are for the the Aviemore/Inverness area for thunderstorms tomorrow? My data is slow so it’s hard for me to check, thanks

 

[Mark H]

@Kirkcaldy Weather I've just seen the forecast from convective weather in the storm thread, is this in line with your thinking re tomorrow evening? I've noticed you are pretty spot on with your forecasts, and I'm hoping south Lanarkshire is in the firing line. Thanks.☺

Edited July 24, 2019 by Mark H

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 minute ago, Stormeh said:

Hey guys, I seen some flashes of lightning looking over towards the mainland from Skye in the early hours. This was my first time visiting Skye and it was amazing and it wasn’t as crowded as I thought it would be. I am heading to the Aviemore area tomorrow, can someone tell me what the chances are for the the Aviemore/Inverness area for thunderstorms tomorrow? My data is slow so it’s hard for me to check, thanks

 

I would say a pretty good chance probably evening time maybe around 8:30pm onwards to be on the lookout for cells developing toward that area but that could change so try and keep an eye on the radar if you can and probably quite a bit of lightning as storms further north probably more on the elevated side rather than surfaced based  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 minutes ago, Mark H said:

@Kirkcaldy Weather I've just seen the forecast from convective weather in the storm thread, is this in line with your thinking re tomorrow evening? I've noticed you are pretty spot on with your forecasts, and I'm hoping south Lanarkshire is in the firing line.

Hi thanks for the kind comments, I merely do the forecasts out of enjoyment and passion for weather, it is an ever changing scenario for tomorrow and nowhere will be guaranteed as is always the case but here is a quick draw up for tomorrow  with the orange zones having less agreement within the models on storm development and the red zones having the highest chance of storm development with supercell potential especially further south in the zone, large hail, frequent lightning, intense rainfall with flooding likely and a tornado risk all threats especially but not exclusive to the red zone, Another concern having a quick look at the charts is that IF these storms develop after dark night time tornadoes COULD be a scary threat whereas slightly less so if during daylight as they would be visible so i would urge everyone to keep a close eye on the radar if possible and reports in here just in case.

[Northernlights]

Very humid tonight and still 19.5c. Just noticed before sunset that the very strong southerly gale this morning with all the thunder and lightning had knocked down the two scarecrows in the neeps (or Boris and Donald as I named them three years ago when I made them). Hope it  is not  an omen.

[Mark H]

Brilliant, thanks @Kirkcaldy Weather, your forecasts are very much appreciated. 

Looks good for tomorrow, might take a short drive along the A70 into west lothian or south east into the borders depending on the radar.