Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

[Mair Snaw]

Thanks @Ross B looks like i have some reading to do later. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

8 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Can i just ask what is CAPE?

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/CAPE---Convective-Available-Potential-Energy.htm The thundery showers / storms we usually get only normally come with anything upto 500+ CAPE but IF the values being churned out for next week 1000, 2000+ are anywhere near true the chance for storms of the severe variety will be on the menu, although as mentioned by some others in the storm/ model threads CAPE is only one of many key factors when attempting to forecast thunderstorms, a trigger such as a front, trough, convergence zone etc will be needed to develop any storms and other factors like CIN http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints3/905/ which cap / put a lid on the atmosphere (think a loaded gun) but the shorter range models will be best to look at for these things hopefully by Monday / Tuesday if things stay on track.

[Stormeh]

Hi all, I hope everyone is doing well. I have not been on here for a while. I lost both my Grandparents over the last few months so my mind has been elsewhere.

As others have said, hopefully the heat can make it up here next week and give us a good lightning display. 

The weather has been not bad here recently in the south side of Glasgow. Warm sunshine and some heavy showers in between. Good weather for the garden.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Thunderstorm warnings out for Sunday and Monday 

Heavy thundery rainfall, especially on Monday, may lead to flooding, serious travel disruption and danger to life.

What to expect

There is a small chance that fast flowing or deep floodwater could suddenly occur, bringing a danger to life and extensive flooding of homes and businesses

There is a slight chance of damage to buildings/structures from lightning strikes, hail, or strong winds

If flooding occurs, road closures are likely, with long delays and cancellations to bus and rail services are possible

There is small chance that spray, sudden flooding, standing water and/or hail will result in rapidly changing, dangerous driving conditions

There is a slight chance power and other essential services, such as gas, water or mobile phone service will be lost

There is a small chance communities may be cut off.

Further details

Issued: 10:35 (UTC+1) on Fri 21 Jun 2019

Heavy, and at times thundery rain is expected to affect southern Scotland from late Sunday, then move northwards across central and eastern Scotland through Monday. In many locations 25-50mm of rain may fall in a 12-18 hour period, with peaks in excess of 100mm possible over high ground.

Regions and local authorities affected:

Central, Tayside & Fife

Angus

Clackmannanshire

Dundee

Falkirk

Fife

Perth and Kinross

Stirling

Grampian

Aberdeen

Aberdeenshire

Moray

Highlands & Eilean Siar

Highland

Orkney & Shetland

Orkney Islands

SW Scotland, Lothian Borders

Dumfries and Galloway

East Lothian

Edinburgh

Midlothian Council

Scottish Borders

West Lothian

Strathclyde

Argyll and Bute

East Ayrshire

North Lanarkshire

South Lanarkshire

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-23&id=9d7a10a1-86fa-480e-b7a4-e6a37c707d02

Edited June 21, 2019 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Ross B]

15 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Thunderstorm warnings out for Sunday and Monday 

Heavy thundery rainfall, especially on Monday, may lead to flooding, serious travel disruption and danger to life.

What to expect

There is a small chance that fast flowing or deep floodwater could suddenly occur, bringing a danger to life and extensive flooding of homes and businesses

There is a slight chance of damage to buildings/structures from lightning strikes, hail, or strong winds

If flooding occurs, road closures are likely, with long delays and cancellations to bus and rail services are possible

There is small chance that spray, sudden flooding, standing water and/or hail will result in rapidly changing, dangerous driving conditions

There is a slight chance power and other essential services, such as gas, water or mobile phone service will be lost

There is a small chance communities may be cut off.

Further details

Issued: 10:35 (UTC+1) on Fri 21 Jun 2019

Heavy, and at times thundery rain is expected to affect southern Scotland from late Sunday, then move northwards across central and eastern Scotland through Monday. In many locations 25-50mm of rain may fall in a 12-18 hour period, with peaks in excess of 100mm possible over high ground.

Regions and local authorities affected:

Central, Tayside & Fife

Angus

Clackmannanshire

Dundee

Falkirk

Fife

Perth and Kinross

Stirling

Grampian

Aberdeen

Aberdeenshire

Moray

Highlands & Eilean Siar

Highland

Orkney & Shetland

Orkney Islands

SW Scotland, Lothian Borders

Dumfries and Galloway

East Lothian

Edinburgh

Midlothian Council

Scottish Borders

West Lothian

Strathclyde

Argyll and Bute

East Ayrshire

North Lanarkshire

South Lanarkshire

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-23&id=9d7a10a1-86fa-480e-b7a4-e6a37c707d02

Sorry to hear that @Stormeh

Weather warning for Monday looks interesting, highest impact with danger to life! (English warning is lower impact) Its mainly associated with that torrential band of rain coming in Sunday night into Monday, GFS has the band slightly further west initially impacting the south west Early Monday then brings Glasgow/Ayrshire into play before transferring north east with thundery showers to follow (although I'd trust the meto short range models more) 

 

 

Edited June 21, 2019 by Ross B

[mardatha]

Oh this is bloody ridiculous lol. Once a year I go to the hospital to see my endo consultant. I have Addisons Disease and that needs a consultant who knows about it. And this year - I GO ON MONDAY MORNING!!! So if we've got severe thunder and lightning, hail, cats dogs and wabbits dropping from the sky - then we canny go. And then I'll need to wait probably until around xmas to get another appointment...

[SW Saltire]

15 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

 

@SW Saltire- I guess we don't agree about politics much but I think we might agree that our democracy needs refreshing.  There's been a couple of interesting radio programmes recently about this. I'd better shut up now.

Yup but sadly quite unlikely. I used to love referenda but now i’m not so sure.

6 hours ago, mardatha said:

I really miss the poltics thread, it was one of the few places you could discuss Scottish politics without a mass  *we hate the SNP* chorus. At least you lot were polite and listened to all views.

Calm sunny cold morning up here so far and the swallows are going mad. So is the cat - who seems to think fat Persians with wee stumpy legs can launch themselves into space  and catch birds through glass.

Indeed. I can defo see why the UK one was banned as I honestly think some people were sponsored by a party. However the Scottish one was far more successful.

I have messaged Paul so we will see what, if anything, comes of that. I can’t see me being successful but perhaps we (as a collective) can come up with somekind of proposal/halfway house....?

14 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Highland Show ? @Hairy Celt  We are going on Saturday.Will catch up with @AuroraStorm when down. Get a politics and farming fix!!!!!

Be the first year in about 10 years that i’m not attending the Highland.

Edited June 21, 2019 by SW Saltire

[SW Saltire]

Been great weather down here recently and looking warm enough for a BBQ by the weekend.

Unfortunately the old ball and chain resides in the chilly capital working Mon - Friday. 

However i’m off next week Tues-Fri so going to ensure I’m back down in the tropical south to enjoy Wed and thurs as I would think 27/28c is more than possible in my wee sheltered south-western sun trap

[Mr Frost]

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Issued: 10:35 (UTC+1) on Fri 21 Jun 2019

Heavy, and at times thundery rain is expected to affect southern Scotland from late Sunday, then move northwards across central and eastern Scotland through Monday. In many locations 25-50mm of rain may fall in a 12-18 hour period, with peaks in excess of 100mm possible over high ground.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-23&id=9d7a10a1-86fa-480e-b7a4-e6a37c707d02

Have you read the warning for England and Wales? 

Reminds me of the warnings the NOAA NWS Storm Prediction centre put out in America! (Minus the tornado bit)

Seems to be a risk of Supercells down there? What do you think? 

I agree with @Hairy Celt about us (Scotland getting a soaking on Monday) They have mentioned thundery rain a few times over the years and every single time I have had plenty of rain...but no thunder and lightning! 

Hopefully this time it is different! Good luck to everyone in the warning area (I am outside it! ) for thunder and lightning. (If you enjoy it)

Flooding could be an issue but I sincerely hope not. 

Edited June 21, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Have you read the warning for England and Wales? 

Reminds me of the warnings the NOAA NWS Storm Prediction centre put out in America! (Minus the tornado bit)

Seems to be a risk of Supercells down there? What do you think? 

I agree with @Hairy Celt about us (Scotland getting a soaking on Monday) They have mentioned thundery rain a few times over the years and every single time I have had plenty of rain...but no thunder and lightning! 

Hopefully this time it is different! (Good luck to everyone in the warning area - I’m outside it. )

Starting off with down south risk for Tuesday onward, only really a summary ATM as not within time frame of shorter range models but here are latest fax charts (these will change frequently too so dont take positions of features to literal) it shows the front positioned across the SW up and through the midlands and the warmer air will be moving in behind that front as it (most likely) pushes north although something I have noticed within the ensembles is the chance of 2 pushes of warm air with the 2nd possibly being the warmest (+ 20 850s) timings still unsure   CAPE charts for Tuesday (again not to be taken too literally at this moment)   plenty of Surfaced based and MU CAPE but some areas of CIN around      

  very high Dew points   and high temps  I am not as skilled at storm forecasting as Nick F, Paul Sherman etc but what I get from that would be the chance of a line of strong (possibly severe) storms along the front and the possibility if a surfaced based storm developed either ahead of or behind the front, that it could become supercellular given the ingredients in place (obviously more in depth factors to look at but I will leave those to the storm forecasters). 

As for our storm chances here is the latest fax chart as we head into Monday, a front has moved up from France  and also a trough behind it   some charts for that timeframe (again likely to change)           

looks like the possibility of elevated storms in places but probably the main risk being the intensity of the rain, the trough is interesting as if the front clears quick enough and CAPE builds that could provide some storms but still uncertainties. I dont use lightningwizard charts often but some interesting ones for us, convective gusts  , tornado parameter  supercell paramter  A very complex and fascinating spell coming up for sure and hopefully we all get to join in on the storm action, some nice photogenic storms will do me, not really sure I would want the risk of a tornadic supercell.

[Northernlights]

Fine day here too.Cut domestic grasses this afternoon after picking stones off the neep ground in the morning. Noticed the apple trees have very little fruit although plums slighly better.Lot of ground frost in the first half of  May so we maybe had an air frost that got them.Or perhaps the dry conditions of the last  year finally took its toll as all trees old and young are poor. Strawberries are coming along nicely  in the sunshine.

[Hairy Celt]

19 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Highland Show ? @Hairy Celt  We are going on Saturday.Will catch up with @AuroraStorm when down. Get a politics and farming fix!!!!!

Lol. something quite different!

 

[NUT]

The CAPE has been toned down quite dramatically as expected but makes no jot of a difference still going to be a interesting week be surprised if the thunderless streak for 2019 isn't broken

[Aphelion]

My daughter is off on a school trip to Paris for a week, leaving Edinburgh by coach on Sunday evening......

Once they get through the rain and thunderstorms on the journey, Paris is forecast to get up to 37C

[Mr Frost]

All very calm here last night ...until my 16 months old son woke up screaming just before midnight and did not go back to sleep until after 2am! 

Looking good for this weekend and next week for most of us - still haven’t a clue how hot it wIll be next week! (Metoffice and BBC apps still at odds with latest ECM/GFS - could be 30 degrees in parts of Scotland or low 20’s! I will take either!)

Plus lots of members in here may have thundery rain Sunday night/Monday morning which will be fun if it comes off! (If you are not travelling and enjoy such a thing)

Anyways time to get out and enjoy this lovely weather! 

Have a good weekend everyone! 

Edited June 22, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Mr Frost]

On 21/06/2019 at 09:47, Hairy Celt said:

This is Scotland - it'll get downgraded in the last 30 minutes and we'll all just get soaked.

This man knows his stuff! 

Updated warning is rubbish! (Or good news if you hate thunder and lightning!)

Edited June 22, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

This man knows his stuff! 

Updated warning is rubbish! (Or good news if you hate thunder and lightning!)

They copied my summary 

"Although some isolated thunderstorm activity is expected, the heavy rainfall aspect has now been deemed to be of greater significance."

21 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

looks like the possibility of elevated storms in places but probably the main risk being the intensity of the rain, 

I am having flashbacks to the failed easterly from last winter with the GFS backing off the heat  (especially for Scotland) but the UKMO and ECM are sticking to it, comparing all three at 144hrs 

GFS     

ECM  

UKMO  

better angle on the lower pressure to the SW on the ECM and UKMO making it easier to draw in the warmer 850s but the GFS positions it too close and less of a NW - SE angle keeping the hottest of the air to the east, hopefully the GFS moves back in line with the other models. Here are some of the other models take on things 

ICON 0z a very hot run  

WRF NMM Europe also still a warm run  NAVGEM too   

as for the possible storms later tomorrow / Monday

MUCAPE has increased on the NMM which has performed well recently    some of the models have 1 area of rain others have 2 so I will hold off posting precip charts til this firms up hopefully tomorrow, I am still 50/50 whether it will be thundery or just heavy rain.

[shuggee]

A surplus of children in Peebles today saw lorries taking infants to locations elsewhere in the Borders.

Lovely day for the Beltane carry-on....

[Mr Frost]

Good Morning all! 

So many stunning sunsets this month - last night was my favourite so far! 

Oh and...monnnnnn the heat! 

Expecting these temperatures to be higher nearer the time! 

[mardatha]

I found it a disappointing day yesterday in North Berwick. Was a coolish breeze I think from the north east  (but don't yell if I'm wrong)- off the sea anyway and we found it cold. No sun at all, heavy white cloud cover.  Wasn't just as bad when we got back home, some blue bits of sky and less breeze, but by then I was tired and past caring. Woke up today to white cloud again - getting bored with this! Is the east side not getting the hot temps at all?

[shuggee]

To the western Borders mardatha: early evening yesterday. Stunning!

 

Finn is growing up fast....

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

5 hours ago, mardatha said:

Is the east side not getting the hot temps at all?

It still remains a complex setup with warm 850s but changes in the wind strength and direction for each day, winds picking up from the E / SE tonight     but some differences between the wind direction at 850 and lower which could be why some of the models are struggling to agree on temperatures for this week as usually an east flow would cool things down but it may only be an east flow at surface level and a different direction higher up so potentially slightly higher temps for example GEFS for here wind direction 10m   wind direction 850   easterly at lower levels but switching round to the south at higher levels, I am not really sure how these differences will effect things but the only way I can see temps being as low as 12 / 13 C on the east coast would be if any low cloud is picked up with the winds at lower levels, but with high 850s I suspect the temperatures will be warmer than what some of the models are showing. 

Tonight / tomorrow 

         

quick forecast map from me, Yellow = heavy rain & possibly some embedded elevated storms, Orange = main areas to watch for storm development tomorrow (some possibly surface based) and the likely direction they could move.

 

[mardatha]

TY got the picture. Looking out some good books and might do some baking... fabby Scottish summer day tomorrow

[SW Saltire]

Great day yesterday, sat out in the sun until 8pm.

Today started off cloudy but got a BBQ in at midday and the sun came out.

Rose to 23c although not hazy again and themometer is reading 22c. Very comfortable as humidity feels quite high but there’s a keen wind from a SE direction

 

Edited June 23, 2019 by SW Saltire

[NUT]

Might be cloudy outside but it's warm it as if the atmospheres building for something juicy