Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

[blitzen]

Type of weather that goes right through you here today..   Grey, damp, raw, temps of 3c  on ENE wind.   Yuk!

Edited February 5, 2019 by Blitzen

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

3 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Type of weather that goes right through you today here.   Grey, raw, temps of 3c and an ENE wind.   Yuk!

 arrived here too now 4.9C forecast was a bit off with the timing https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast-video/21416751 still a bit unsettled through the rest of the week too 

[edinburgh_1992]

Chance of snow on higher ground for the Lothians during the first hours of Thursday morning. GFS12 confirms, gfs p doesn't. Would be borderline in any case, and most likely just wet, heavy flakes mixed in with the rain on lower ground. Snow will only be possible in the case of very heavy precipitation, since uppers won't be particularly low: around -4C

Just worth keeping an eye on. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

ensembles still looking promising - some of the picks of the bunch 

2010 type pattern     noo thats a snaw maker   

or the scandi high route 

still the same thinking from me - get through this more Atlantic influenced spell - then a quietening down  with higher pressure developing (this could be the key) - then fingers crossed blocking gets into a good position and we can all get to take some snowy pics 

[Northernlights]

-2c this morning with about 40% frozen snowcover and 20%sheet ice so nasty day for walking about .Slow thaw started late morning and we now have rain at 3.5c. So all in all another raw mid winters day.

[Highland Blizzard]

Back home after a few days away and today is 21st day of continuous snow cover.  Had to pick axe the ice off the driveway.  Third pic is from A9 not sure where as was drowsy after driving all night!

[Hairy Celt]

It's off Mezzanine I think, can't remember which song now and I need my bed.

It's damp and getting a bit milder.

[edinburgh_1992]

4 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Euro4 has a different take on it but defo worth watching as both are keen on somewhere in Scotland getting snow:

The forecast based on ecmwf 10km resolution shows a brief spell of snow down to sea level for Edinburgh, gfs showing snow from 200m (sleet below this level).

Still not clear exactly what areas will be hit, GFS p misses the Lothians mostly, whilst the GFS op still goes for a direct hit (with chance of snaw)

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GEFS 18z 

  

[edinburgh_1992]

So much uncertainty on the 18z ensembles... 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

5 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

So much uncertainty on the 18z ensembles... 

 

I rarely look at the 850 temp graphs especially in situations when on the look out for higher pressure building as some of the runs with higher pressure will have higher / slightly higher 850 temps so can be mistaken for a milder run but in reality that high pressure could be headed to a destination - Greenland - Scandi etc and would / could eventually be pulling in those colder 850 temps like this one for example - 

    or this   slight changes in the position / direction of the high can / will change the 850 temps in one direction or the other ie colder / milder so those charts probably look less cool / milder on the 850 graph but in reality are not far away at all from the colder 850 temps being over the UK   

[101_North]

7 hours ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

The forecast based on ecmwf 10km resolution shows a brief spell of snow down to sea level for Edinburgh, gfs showing snow from 200m (sleet below this level).

Still not clear exactly what areas will be hit, GFS p misses the Lothians mostly, whilst the GFS op still goes for a direct hit (with chance of snaw)

You might be onto something! Latest Met forecast now mentions "perhaps snow in places" which wasn't in the forecast yesterday.

[edinburgh_1992]

37 minutes ago, 101_North said:

You might be onto something! Latest Met forecast now mentions "perhaps snow in places" which wasn't in the forecast yesterday.

I take it back today the main area of precipitation has been moved north west, so more marginal rainfall for us. Uppers are also a bit milder than predicted yesterday. 

So probably about 4C and rain for us overnight, unless models backtrack again, which is unlikely

[edo]

the model that says rain no doubt using the tried and tested teleconnection sods law theory

[edo]

3 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

We really are a bunch of grumpy old farts at times, myself included. You're right of course, but when did the dreams die?

im grumpy for the kids... i am personally at peace with weather gods.... honestly

[Northernlights]

About 20% snow cover left, nearly all in the usual sheltered spots where there is still a fair bit left and especially the woods where you can go for a real winter walk.Slight ground frost again this morning  and a few snow showers round the Firth. Hills looking resplendant in their thick snowcover. Currently 4.5c

Edited February 6, 2019 by Northernlights

[Stormeh]

Heavy hail shower here, tried making a gif image of it. Not sure if it worked?  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

19 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Heavy hail shower here, tried making a gif image of it. Not sure if it worked?  

Aye it worked  hope the cat was sheltered   6.6C here and mostly clear skies 

[Hairy Celt]

There's still little scraps of snow left in the garden here too, and lots in shady places (dungeons, brothels, betting shops, other dens of iniquity) nearby.

The forecast comes from a dark place too.

Wtf is a gif? 

Edited February 6, 2019 by Hairy Celt

[Mr T]

Still a good cover in place here. View a couple of miles from the house on the way home tonight. Icy roads in the mornings last couple of days at -4c with water run off freezing overnight. 

[blitzen]

12 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

There's still little scraps of snow left in the garden here too, and lots in shady places (dungeons, brothels, betting shops, other dens of iniquity) nearby.

The forecast comes from a dark place too.

Wtf is a gif? 

 

You clear on that now?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

@Hairy Celt 

"Graphics Interchange Format

GIF means "Graphics Interchange Format (image type)". The acronym GIF most commonly refers to a short, animated picture without sound."

here is a tasty looking gif from the 12z GEFS with an easterly (sorry I know your hatred for easterly's ) 

did end up with some darker skies out to the west / sw a short while ago here think that was @Stormeh's hail shower 

 

[ghoneym]

@Kirkcaldy Weather its midweek and look whats now starting to show up...

[Northernlights]

4 hours ago, Northernlights said:

About 20% snow cover left, nearly all in the usual sheltered spots where there is still a fair bit left and especially the woods where you can still go for a real winter walk.Slight ground frost again this morning  and a few snow showers round the Firth. Hills looking resplendant in their thick snowcover. Currently 4.5c

Mean"t to add the old uns would say its( the snow) waiting for more.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, ghoneym said:

@Kirkcaldy Weather its midweek and look whats now starting to show up...

hmmm very interesting and not to blow my own trumpet but I might not be far off "timing hard to pinpoint ATM but a guess from me would be a more Atlantic influenced pattern til around 11th - 12th Feb before a quite down then possible blocking from about 17th Feb." 

   A long way to go yet but once / if we start to see higher pressure developing close to / over the UK things could start to get interesting quite quickly I think.