Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

[Richard Taylor]

Precip has arrived here as snow. Quite moderate, no wind.

[ghoneym]

Raining here in the east of Fife

[NUT]

Was snow here briefly but has turned to rain

[Snow Monster]

Heaviest snow of the winter here in Monikie. Chucking it down.

[Benvironment]

0.8C and snowing here. Shame it's gonna be brief.

[Hawesy]

Snowing even here in the Ferry, wet stuff though and won’t be long in turning! 

[howham]

Heavy snow now!!

[Hairy Celt]

48 minutes ago, edo said:

dont know whether to laugh or cry seeing this at the very end of what could well be last cold spell of winter (hopefully not) 

You should be worried - you've shown us where you live! 

Edited February 3, 2019 by Hairy Celt

[101_North]

2 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

You should be worried - you've shown us where you live! 

I've already got the beer in the car. The kids are getting their jackets on, the missus has popped out to get nibbles. I reckon it's only about a 1hr drive

[Richard Taylor]

Snow heavy here too now - thicker flakes.

[Benvironment]

In just half an hour it's replaced everything we've lost to the sun over the last two days

[howham]

Front has cleared through entirely as snow here.

[shuggee]

Easily the coldest night of the wInter so far at -8.3°C.

Varying degrees of heavy snow since 9am... 

[Stormeh]

Oh dear 

[ghoneym]

looking further ahead for more Snaw chances.....as mentioned by @Kirkcaldy Weather a day or so ago, the MJO is in prime phase and forecast to move from phase 7 to 6 then back to 7 again. This gives us more chance of an Atlantic ridge or Scandinavian blocking. The NAO has a much greater % chance of being negative in these phases however the models are not showing this on their output, why? I personally think the SSW downwelling and the effect of the Canadian vortex lobe draining into the Eastern US has trumped standard pattern drivers and thwarted our chances somewhat of the "standard" pattern emerging for the current MJO phases. Thankfully the Canadian Vortex has now started to recede somewhat and will have less of an influence downstream into the Atlantic. So I suppose that begs the question will things improve for us in terms of overall blocking pattern and snow potential? I'm thinking yes and the models will start showing this potential by the middle or end of next week. Teleconnections this winter so far have took a bit of a beating as things have not worked out quite as expected and the overall pattern will need to be carefully analysed to determine why. Even right now the torques and AAM are doing strange things, ~Mountain torque remains high with frictional torque low forcing AAM for longer than expected given the overall momentum budget, things should have started easing off a bit allowing the atmosphere to slow its pace (Imo this then allows for a more wave jet stream allowing the blocking patterns to take hold) This doesn't mean we should dismiss teleconnections as 9/10 times they are the best indication of how an overall pattern longer term will pan out. So a few more days of modelling miseerableness then back to something of a bit more interest. 

Dont get me wrong here we have done ok in terms of snow and cold, even the far south of the UK has seen some but the potential is there for more and us low level Fifers are snow starved and want some Snaw!!

Some charts for consideration while reading the post.

       

[Big Innes Madori]

A short Sharp burst o' snaw earlier, had hoped that it might have lasted an hour or so, but eh naw!

Thinkin about this winter so far, we have had mair frost thickness than snaw depth in these parts

 

Big fkn snaw starved Innes

[Richard Taylor]

Cleared through here without turning to rain - now sunny, which might melt some of it.

[shuggee]

Snow has cleared-through now, leaving 4cm. Drip drip drip has begun +0.9/0°C

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, 101_North said:

I've already got the beer in the car. The kids are getting their jackets on, the missus has popped out to get nibbles. I reckon it's only about a 1hr drive

5C and drizzle now - and the early brightness has gone.

But surely we should be meeting at someone's place higher up and more inland? Otherwise we'll all just end up getting smashed and no snowmen!

[Klippie]

No transient snaw here just rainy damp cold pish. 

Just watched the Beeb's week ahead forecast which is mild with wind and rain, the following week they reckon will be mild as well with that bloody high pressure returning,

So no sign of anything for the best part of two weeks, time is running out this winter for snaw lovers. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Cloudy, damp, snaw melted -  low of -3.1 overnight now 3.8C and looks like it was a high grund event or "northern hills - high ground in the north- the forecasters might as well have said Kirkcaldy Weather at 20M ASL you dinny have a chance pal pishin rain fir u   

@ghoneym I agree with your thoughts (although I dont understand about mountain torques- any links to easily understand or is it quite complex?) 

something else cropping up in the ensembles ATM is signs that it might start with a ridge through the UK pushing its way toward scandi 

  

 similar evolution to last years beast (that is a current ensemble chart)>   

 

 

I certainly think it will be a quick turnaround from pishy looking charts that have the winters over lot shouting loudly to a sudden change to the blocked charts like the ones above - timing hard to pinpoint ATM but a guess from me would be a more Atlantic influenced pattern til around 11th - 12th Feb before a quite down then possible blocking from about 17th Feb.

Could be like a weather version of an RKO outta nowhere #RKSNOWOUTTANOWHERE 

 

[Sceptical]

Winds have picked up and the drive is thawing out at an impressive rate. Next week looks milder of late.

Currently 3c, windy with the sun trying to break through the clouds.

[Hairy Celt]

Mountain torque...

'Ooh I like your hanging valleys, they're so sensuous...'

'That's a lovely north-facing couloir you have there too, but don't you find all those climbers a bit itchy?'

'Nothing really, just a bit tickly mostly. Except the nasty ones hacking through the ice with their axes. They need re-educating sometimes; a small avalanche on an adjacent cliff and they soon get the message.'

Edited February 3, 2019 by Hairy Celt

[ghoneym]

@Kirkcaldy Weather I will PM you with some stuff soon

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Had some moderate snow here earlier, didn't settle, seemed to turn to rain within an hour.

Hoping some of you are right when you say there should be more chances later in the winter.