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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
40 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Will it be as good as March 2018?

 

(I know the answer to that one... nice if it comes off though as I've not seen it forecast elsewhere...)

The Met Office, in their afternoon video forecast, were warning of blizzard conditions for West side of Scotland 300-400 Mts above ASL.

MWIS forecast makes for interesting reading.

Edited by Sceptical
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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Absolutely dying for an easterly here lol but I’ll settle for a wee video of all your snaw in the west please  

still very interesting viewing of the charts, still hopeful of more upgrades and some snow countrywide x 

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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl

Certainly nothing to get too downbeat about in respect of current outputs, in particular ECM which is arguably the front runner at the moment in terms of reliability. 

Noticed some similarities from January 2018 to what the ECM is showing in a week's time. Albeit the uppers were slightly colder in January 2018 however -7 850hpa's shown at present but that's not to say that can't upgrade to a -8 or -9 closer to the time. I seem to remember in January 2018, the 850hpa's kept upgrading the closer it got to the actual event. 

Anyway here's what the midst of the snowy week in January 2018 looked like:

IMG_1471.thumb.PNG.888e9365aa290990e50b55c124979e32.PNG

And here's the ECM's chart for a week's time: 

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Not identical but a good match and the potential is certainly there as I seem to remember happened in January 2018. 

And from that very set-up we got this reasonable lot: 

IMG_1468.thumb.PNG.29dc24313e2e15b079e10843b6b1eb3b.PNG

IMG_1469.thumb.PNG.b60de62e4ea8e10daf1000775f86b2f4.PNG

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IMG_1470.thumb.PNG.b778f89cc84653c73b8ab65d747daea6.PNG

 

certainly enough to keep the interest alive and not forgetting tomorrow night/Tuesday could cause one or two surprises especially with some modest altitude.

 

Edited by Ruzzi
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
15 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Biggest chance of some serious snow is to the south-east of Glasgow. Easily up to 6 inches down the M74 somewhere, maybe more over the hills. The 00z Euro4 might put some more detail on it but if the GFS is right some people will be digging snow by Tuesday morning. Possibly as far east as @shuggee, East Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, western Borders and north-east of Dumfries & Galloway (roughly).

XC quoting me 9cm. We shall see - first of the season if, if, it isn't a 'sleety mix'.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
19 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Certainly nothing to get too downbeat about in respect of current outputs,

 

No, even a The NW flow will do the damage in 2 but more particularly 8-10 days time.for large parts of Scotland.

 

3 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The Firth of Forth creates a streamer at times, same as the Thames. The Forth-Clyde streamer is hugely effective, many of Glasgow's big snowfalls come from the east.

The funny thing is there is no long rivers on the E latitude from my location, but thin long streamer seem to reach here but never seem to get into Manchester, you would think they wouldn't even make it to the W of the pennines as there is some reasonable sized mountains in between.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunlop, East Ayrshire (133m asl)
  • Location: Dunlop, East Ayrshire (133m asl)
41 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Did the convection get all the way across from the East and give you a good dumping then last winter?

Got beyond Glasgow. Pic below is Greenock at sea level on 2nd March. Something like 40+ms of level snow from an Easterly.

I'm half way between Barrhead and Kilmarnock and got less than half that at home. I thought we had a lot for an easterly until I made it to work in Greenock.IMG_4151.thumb.JPG.98da2e1a73a5ff5609d234e912e2930f.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Dunlop, East Ayrshire (133m asl)
  • Location: Dunlop, East Ayrshire (133m asl)
17 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Cathcart Street?

Impressive for that part of Greenock to get much snow at all given the location.

Yup. 

Got sent home from work the Wednesday lunchtime, didn't make it on the Thursday and this was the Friday. 

Sea level Inverclyde sees very little snow normally. Incredible few days. 

IMG_4150.thumb.JPG.426fdd17cc5feb5cf8c0522f9b225f93.JPG

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It does matter, but can be compensated for with very steep lapse rates in the mid level so get what you mean.

Feb 1986 was a good example of how convection can be picked up from the Northern North Sea. While most of the UK was very cold (sub zero CET) it was essentially dry. However Eastern Scotland and parts of NE England had average precipitation, most of which fell as snow. Locally here there were more snow lying days that year than in any subsequently until 2010.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Norrance said:

Feb 1986 was a good example of how convection can be picked up from the Northern North Sea. While most of the UK was very cold (sub zero CET) it was essentially dry. However Eastern Scotland and parts of NE England had average precipitation, most of which fell as snow. Locally here there were more snow lying days that year than in any subsequently until 2010.

There was a good dumping in the southern half of England as well but yes i take your point.

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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
41 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The Firth of Forth creates a streamer at times, same as the Thames. The Forth-Clyde streamer is hugely effective, many of Glasgow's big snowfalls come from the east. Glasgow is not that far from the tidal limit of the Forth, less than 30 miles.

Yep, absolutely and while it's on its merry way to Glasgow from the east, it drops off a fair load over my head .... definitely my favourite snow set-up with the correct orientation of flow. 2010 streamers were spot on! 

IMG_1479.thumb.PNG.f5e6df6e3cc6b29cd3b14ed8bacf7536.PNG

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IMG_1476.thumb.PNG.45c2331f1c9c45ad01ee181be2a42bd4.PNG

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
1 hour ago, edo said:

this picture is from langside drive 1987 glasgow 

i stayed near Aberdeen at the time and was off school for days, we had powercuts and thundersnow.... 

5912280195_a7e1cc24e9_b.jpg

I was in my second year of my HND at Glasgow Tech at that time, travelling in from just outside Airdrie every day. I'd either just gone back after New Year, or was due to, but I had at least a week off due to that snow. I remember it being quite epic. 

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Similar in Birmingham, over a foot where i lived with drifts up to my chest while walking to a closed school.

not very nice that nobody told you it was closed

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, edo said:

not very nice that nobody told you it was closed

Knew it would be - thats why i got into weather forecasting - hated school so learned how to read the charts on the countryfile forecast - it was my best ever that - heating completely busted - had nearly 2 weeks off, one of those occasions when i let my mom walk me knowing that it was unlikely to be open - never said a word, of course when i got there - the triple somersaults came out like i had scored a goal.

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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire
1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

I was in my second year of my HND at Glasgow Tech at that time, travelling in from just outside Airdrie every day. I'd either just gone back after New Year, or was due to, but I had at least a week off due to that snow. I remember it being quite epic. 

Talking of Airdrie, here’s a photo from ‘87 of some hefty snow piles at Monklands Hospital (not my photo - I was not quite 7 years old at the time!)

reuse.php?id=427661&download=70fc16f1

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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Weather Preferences: windy
  • Location: Motherwell

Where's all this optimism for the next 2 days coming from? The met have Glasgow and surrounding areas at about 3-4 degrees and heavy rain through tomorrow night possibly turning to sleet or light snow showers on Tuesday.It doesn't look like a forecast that would bring lying snow to anywhere other than the hills...

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
10 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Can't see any easterlies in sight on the models. North-westerlies yes, but they rarely bring snow to Edinburgh. Although last January we had a day of snow showers brought in on a north-westerly. Quite heavy ones too. 

North-westerly now showing for next Sunday.  Could be fun - I'll be on Skye then :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Sauchen, Aberdeenshire, 100m ASL
  • Location: Nr Sauchen, Aberdeenshire, 100m ASL

Damp and dreary in Inverness in the morning though afternoon better with sunshine and variable cloud.

Steady thaw, light winds, and a max of 5C going by the car thermometer.

Got to say, you do get a cracking view of the local area from the top of Raigmore Hospital.  View NW towards Ben Wyvis, snow sticking with altitude but by this time all melted at low level.

Snag_e8f17b.thumb.png.a6c44b4c53609f8d9225edc92ab7d45d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Clarkston, Glasgow (75m asl)
  • Location: Clarkston, Glasgow (75m asl)

Just back from my brothers where my wife was playing the board game Twilight Struggle with my sister in-law. Took a photo 4 hours after we thought we thought we would get home. Not staying up for the lunar eclipse. I think the cat has happy to see us and angry with us at the same time.

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
8 hours ago, Ross90 said:

Where's all this optimism for the next 2 days coming from? The met have Glasgow and surrounding areas at about 3-4 degrees and heavy rain through tomorrow night possibly turning to sleet or light snow showers on Tuesday.It doesn't look like a forecast that would bring lying snow to anywhere other than the hills...

 

BBC weather this morning West Scotland "rain, hill snow, possible light cover of snow for low levels Tuesday morning"

I think we'll see Met Office warnings being issued later on today.

P.S. BBC weather also going for colder temperatures next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl

MetO saying heavy rain tae sleet tae snaw fir masel.

Cannae say it's looking like much tae write hame aboot!

Decent frost this morning though. While I don't want tae lose any friends over this, I huv tae say it was rather nice walking the dugs in the snawless sunshine yesterday. Was only 2 C, but t-shirt weather as so still and dry.

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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl

BBC forecast has my location as dry with sunny spells for now until at least the 3rd Feb! Temps between 2-8c. If it's not going to snow then I guess dry, sunny and occasionally frosty is not too bad

I don't think I've ever posted as little on here in a winter period - says it all really

Edited by 101_North
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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Weather Preferences: windy
  • Location: Motherwell
43 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

https://apps.sepa.org.uk/rainfall

My nearest raingauge has registered 7.5mm of rain in the last 4 weeks. You will have been quite similar I think? Someone has switched the weather off. It wasn't this dry in the dry spell in May/June. 

It has been quite a dry last 12 months in general.The only wetter than average period i can remember was the first half of October.There's been very few stormy/windy days either.

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