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Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl

That was me just thinking it might be safe to get my hopes up about next week and it seems the models have taketh away.

Seems to be the ever elusive ten days time again.

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
28 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

That was me just thinking it might be safe to get my hopes up about next week and it seems the models have taketh away.

Seems to be the ever elusive ten days time again.

Back in 2006, the Met office stated that the amount of snow setteling in Scotland had reduced by a third in the last 45 years.

Perhaps that trend is continuing, be it natural variation or climate change.

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Fabulous day here blue skies and sunshine and a maximum of 3c in the afternoon with frost digging in all day in the shade. Most of our non farming neighbours were round the farm for a walk in such calm quiet conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
1 hour ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

On a more positive note, if things go according to gfs p, the mild phase could turn out to be very short indeed. Not posting this on the model discussion thread as it would just annoy everyone in the south

gfs-1-156.png

For us there's still plenty of promise, by also a lot of uncertainty. GFS 850 graph for the 12z in my location illustrates just how uncertain. Although Op, control & FV3 are all in the top half of the ensemble spread, that spread is massive from 24/25th onwards. There's still a lot of cold members, and the mean is cold and really hasn't warmed. 

graphe3_1000___2.7397_57.265_.thumb.gif.834de058e1c7c4c3b5a9d470d69241f2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
1 hour ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

On a more positive note, if things go according to gfs p, the mild phase could turn out to be very short indeed. Not posting this on the model discussion thread as it would just annoy everyone in the south

gfs-1-156.png

um thats the reason to post it  

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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell

Love viewing all the pics from around Scotland, but obviously my recent post is misplaced amongst other (regular) posts.

As an avid weather watcher and technical learner I absorb all the scientific input and conclude.

@lorenzo

Edited by ciel
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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
2 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Full sun here all day, and down by Carrbridge, where we went for a short potter...

....then across to Sluggan Bridge 1889482012_slugganbridge.thumb.jpg.e0c6c799806e8f897db1256ffb8969f0.jpg 

 

Had a lovely walk there on New Year's day, as is tradition (that or on Christmas day).

Did you drive past a muckle 'Yes' sign near the railyway station on the way up? Ma folk's hoose. Chip aff the auld block I am. 

Cairn's the best pub in the Highlands, but I'm biased. 

Edited by scottish skier
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

What's that - 6 of them lined up at 60 hrs out..! that low sure is fond of the NE Coast line, churns away in there..

image.thumb.png.1ae544d736ff98b657115224bab97290.pngimage.thumb.png.dc2972da264773e82703f16f50e13eac.pngimage.thumb.png.3743839b2821222bc9e289988a410d46.png

Ciel wrt to down welling.. 'paint drip' expression of the slow progression of the NAM, from below u can see the obstacles since the SSW and the eventual connection to the trop. I think the initial arctic outbreak impacting Austria was programmed before / during SSW.

image.thumb.png.333e63f4d4fb12ff24d039e3ded48ac2.png

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
39 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

GFS 18 shows that the models can get even worse.

What is this? September or January?

According to MetO the average max temp in Scotland in Jan is 5.3C. The chart you posted shows a range of 3-7C with small coastal pockets of 8C. Yes we'd love it to be colder, and snowy, but in reality that looks distinctly average to me. 

We have to accept that we have a temperate maritime climate, not a continental one, so even in Winter cold, snowy weather is not the norm. 

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.

Not a great outlook for the Scottish ski resorts this morning, very little snow being forecast for next week.

Friday next week, Scotlands temperatures should be back to average for the time of year.

Rain, hill snow Monday into Tuesday then a return to generally dry weather.

Hopefully this changes ASAP.

 

Edited by Sceptical
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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

Not a great outlook for the Scottish ski resorts this morning, very little snow being forecast for next week.

Friday next week, Scotlands temperatures should be back to average for the time of year.

Rain, hill snow Monday into Tuesday then a return to generally dry weather.

Hopefully this changes ASAP.

 

I am heading up the Cairngorms this week - current conditions look good.

Plus I can’t see much melt happening as even out to next Saturday temperatures at the base station for example are still freezing - I will take that all day long.

 

 

 

2D6C14A8-96B9-411F-B7D3-8E299DB18BB1.png

924F5FE9-A04D-4F97-B071-A039BDD134BD.png

4EBCED78-C020-4575-A789-CD93C4B9B499.png

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

After a great frosty start to the night rain came in earlier this morning and coated the ground with ice. Currently overcast and 3c

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

Not a great outlook for the Scottish ski resorts this morning, very little snow being forecast for next week.

Friday next week, Scotlands temperatures should be back to average for the time of year.

Rain, hill snow Monday into Tuesday then a return to generally dry weather.

Hopefully this changes ASAP.

 

Thankfully it looks like the mild blip will be more shortlasted than initially predicted by GFS. One or two days max, then 850s should drop below zero again. Hopefully that shouldn't impact the snow cover too much. 

Also, quite a bit of snowfall between Monday and Tuesday, especially for more western areas.

Unfortunately, looks like the Lothians could be getting just a couple of mm of precipitation, GFS p is showing less than a mm for Edinburgh. Will probably fall as rain too, since temperatures are borderline. Hopefully that front pushes further east with more determination than currently predicted

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
8 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

After a great frosty start to the night rain came in earlier this morning and coated the ground with ice. Currently overcast and 3c

Pretty much the same here now, -6c first thing then the cloud start to build.

Currently still -2c and a light mixture of rain/sleet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
9 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Where do you live? The north pole? So jealous

Beside Alford, it's about 25 miles west of Aberdeen. Can get very cold due to the hills that surround the area, although the last time it was very cold was back in 2010.

Moved here in 2004, the coldest temperature I've noted was -22c Early January 2010.

Edited by Sceptical
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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
2 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Not a great outlook for the Scottish ski resorts this morning, very little snow being forecast for next week.

Friday next week, Scotlands temperatures should be back to average for the time of year.

Rain, hill snow Monday into Tuesday then a return to generally dry weather.

Hopefully this changes ASAP.

 

you are well named

i think we will see plenty snow in the resorts as alluded to above there is a mild blip but generally outlook cold with shots from NW and potentially NE... 

i also think we at low level will do fine all be it may have to wait a bit longer till its widespread although as CMD says plenty opportunities in specific spots at a short range

 

and as if by magic i have some pellets of snow falling here... thought it looked a dreich day with not much cold but just been out and it feels v chilly

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
6 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Beside Alford, it's about 25 miles west of Aberdeen. Can get very cold due to the hills that surround the area, although the last time it was very cold was back in 2010.

Moved here in 2004, the coldest temperature I've noted was -22c Early January 2010.

Wow, that's quite impressive! Being surrounded by hills you must get some good temperature inversions.

Temperature inversions are quite rare in Edinburgh, we had quite a big one in December 2017, think it got down to -10/-11. Nothing really since then

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