Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

[edinburgh_1992]

Got a few drops of rain earlier, very brief. Now +3C, the next couple of days are crucial to confirming what could turn out to be a very interesting period for all of us. Easterlies=guaranteed snow for Edinburgh. Probably the best configuration for us, fronts from the west often weaken a lot by the time they reach here

[edinburgh_1992]

4 minutes ago, Gadje said:

Sorry Ravelin, my question of 'where?' to your post in the model thread was a snarky ironic reference to the whereabouts of the place called Scotland, not the position of the  -14  850s. Reading that thread often I need to remind myself I'm not living in Suffolk. Although they like sheep there too I hear

Reading that thread makes me feel lucky to be in Scotland, especially when I see them moaning about charts that deliver snow to us whilst all they get is rain 

[edo]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@edo I am just catching up with the 18z GFS  it has near perfect setup for streamers of epic proportions from about 174h to 276h long story short Scotland becomes Snowland and the Kirkcaldy snow shield will finally be broken 

start   still going even beyond this  -12 850s I will take it    

PLEASE SNOW GODS LET THIS HAPPEN I NEED MA SNAW! 

 

some tasty charts for sure.... plenty convective possibilities aswell that wont be showing.... GFSP looking awesome too

[101_North]

Just back from a week away with work! Where do I start catching up? The Met Office text update is less inspiring than I was expecting given some of the charts I briefly checked.

[Gogoslo]

Would seem things have gone the way of the pear according to the MT..

snow all but gone here and we have returned to the default damp and grey. 

[Hawesy]

31 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Just back from a week away with work! Where do I start catching up? The Met Office text update is less inspiring than I was expecting given some of the charts I briefly checked.

My take on it would be colder than average for the next five days but any accumulating snow mostly restricted to higher ground. Beyond that there are a spread of options, as usual. But I gave up chasing those down a few years back, I’ll leave it to the likes of @Kirkcaldy Weather who is doing a great job. I only focus on the short term these days, must be an age thing! 

[Ravelin]

28 minutes ago, Gogoslo said:

Would seem things have gone the way of the pear according to the MT..

snow all but gone here and we have returned to the default damp and grey. 

Aye MT thread should come with a public health warning this morning, especially for those of a nervous disposition (which is 90% of the MT's normal clientele). The 12Z runs should hopefully tell us if it's boom or bust for later next week. 

Until then, snow here surviving but also rather grey. MetO forecast is for the cloud to break later this morning and sunny spells to emerge so might have to go for a walk. 

Edited January 19, 2019 by Ravelin

[Ravelin]

Lol, ICON 6z heading back to the possible colder easterly solution so air of utter confusion about to descend on the MT thread, especially as it could mean the 'gold standard' ECM being wrong. Not that I'm saying it will be. The only thing that is certain is that nothing next week is yet certain. 

[edinburgh_1992]

There has been a big turnaround from the models since last night, unfortunately the easterly is now looking very unlikely

[Ruzzi]

I think it's still an open book just now, got the impression last night's runs were of the outrageous variety however not out of the question given the current state of affairs. 

With the Icon starting to swing back towards GFS and UKMO, suddenly it's the ECM looking a little adrift. Also, this morning's ECM has been disgregarded in the states with regards to how it handles the storm about to hit the northeast of the USA as mentioned by Nick Sussex in the MT so make of that what you will but given the importance of that storm upstream in terms of what transpires downstream for the UK then it's simply too soon to back any solution. 

It's impossible to call a judgement at the moment but you can't really see either the UKMO or ECM being totally wrong at such close range so safest bet would be a blend as pointed out in the MT also, of the both extremes, with the UKMO backing down with its ridging somewhat and the ECM back-pedalling towards a more amplified solution but not going the whole Hogg back toward last night's output. 

Whatever that means for here, I absolutely haven't a clue fingers crossed by the end of tonight we'll have some sort of agreement. Another full cycle of runs today should hopefully achieve some clarity. 

If ECM does a full flip back then watch the carnage unfold ...

Edited January 19, 2019 by Ruzzi

[Penicuikblizzard]

25 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

There has been a big turnaround from the models since last night, unfortunately the easterly is now looking very unlikely

The beast from the east in Feb/March last year downgraded and everyone thought it wasn’t going to happen then the models all jumped on board again

[Serac]

In light of their violent mood swings the European and American weather agencies have now agreed to rename ECM and GFS  Kevin and Perry

A spokesman has confirmed ”It’s not fair” 

 

[Ravelin]

Definite thaw on this morning and cloud still not breaking up. 

Models, well GFS 6z seems to be going for the half way house i.e. no real easterly, then a blast from NW... 

Then Nirvana... 

But obviously this is extreme FI. 

 

In the meantime, next possible snow chance looks like Tuesday, but possibly marginal snow/rain at low altitude and exact details will almost certainly change. 

[edinburgh_1992]

BBC weather has updated, back up to 7C next Friday, time to get my swimming gear on and head down to the beach. 

What concerns me more is the snow situation in the highlands, where ski centres have been having a very bad season so far. +4/+5C temps at 850 will melt away any snow very quickly

[strathearn snow]

BBC weather this am still going for cold next week and a snow event Monday/Tuesday. Mountain weather also supporting this. Wouldn't be surprised if by this evening things have turned around again!

[lorenzo]

@edo Yep - head's still stuck there although it is slowly down welling to the troposphere, lovely photos going up on the thread, nice to see. Had naff all here ...yet.

Tuesday looks decent and into mesoscale so worth an up close look vs the nuances of the ECM backing down from it's quicker route to cold. Doesn't help temper expectations when the GFS is gung ho churning our Day After Tomorrow stuff.

12z tonight will be interesting - EC last night and this morning definitely on the move back to massive variance, given just how good this model is one would be remiss to dismiss the trend, that said looking at the Ensembles posted earlier in the model thread, the Op run does sit in a cluster with around 13/51 Ensemble members, so it is certainly not game over. And, importantly the UKMO last night was looking good, and remains good this morning. 

So, all told a proper model stand off and decent debate ahead - what we do have is something of an all or nothing, will UKMO revert to EC, GFS looks to be. Then either way what follows to start Feb looks equally spectacular as what was initially programmed, just moved back a few days. 

Given the lagged impacts of the SSW, time is on our side this Winter...

06z Arpege Gif for snow accumulations as of this morning.

[Polar Gael]

Snaw started yesterday evening and gave us a covering here, but already thawing later on. Still a bare covering at 9am this morning and now a cauld, rimy, dreich kind of day, with most of the snaw offski. Currently 2.1C/1C. Looking ahead, reckon we'll do okay for cauld and snaw up here, on and off well into Feb. Second half of winter shaping up much better than the snoozefest first half. 

[Stormeh]

Yes still plenty of snow chances over the next couple of weeks for us in Scotland  I just wish their was more posts regarding the models up here in the model forum. I understand that most members are from down south and as soon as the models downgrade for snow and cold further south then it’s winter over for everyone. 

I had a look through the snow accumulation charts from the ECM and GFS and they still show decent amount of snow to fall over Scotland

[Serac]

11 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Yes still plenty of snow chances over the next couple of weeks for us in Scotland  I just wish their was more posts regarding the models up here in the model forum. I understand that most members are from down south and as soon as the models downgrade for snow and cold further south then it’s winter over for everyone. 

I had a look through the snow accumulation charts from the ECM and GFS and they still show decent amount of snow to fall over Scotland

I think we are all looking for extremes Stormeh. So , given what was the forecast directions of attack , if the MT are banging on about snow for the southern extremities , it should by default equate to a snow fest up here (even if Scotland doesn’t get a mention).

a disappointing trend in the last 24 hours but it could equally flip back just as fast. And if not at least we have continued encouragement from the esteemed @lorenzo 

happy to live of scraps in the meantime .... sort of (brave face smiley whatever that looks like)

[Stormeh]

I guess you are right @Serac, the charts did look great recently for deep cold and snow and I understand the disappointment in the MT. Hopefully things will flip back again on the 12z runs. Still plenty of chances for us, certainly better than what we have been experiencing since the start of winter

Great post by @lorenzo 

[Cheggers]

Come Monday......

[Zenarcher]

A cloudy day but at least it's staying dry and not windy. Interesting times ahead as we look towards next week although I doubt I will see any snow here we haven't even had any frosty icy days yet.

[ciel]

Wasn't sure where to post this, but opted for the knowledgeable and friendly regional thread.

Probably displaying my total lack of knowledge on full view here, but I am really confused as to the extent of the stratospheric impact on the troposphere or vice versa.

For example, are the extreme conditions being experienced currently in Austria and Germany a result of the current SSW or due to discrete tropospheric dynamics? If the driving factor is SSW, what happened to the time-lag in downwelling in continental Europe? 

 

 

[Ravelin]

Well we sat looking out at greyness until early afternoon and then decided to stop waiting for the cloud to break up and go for a walk anyway. Just as well, as we got to the high point of the road and the car park you could just see glimpses of blue sky looking directly up. We started the walk through the snow festooned forest and as we climbed it became apparent that if we got a bit higher we'd be out of what was an inversion. As we cleared the forest near the top, we also cleared the mist and the views were stunning. 

The photos I took really dont do it justice... 

 

Back at the house just 200m lower and we're back in the mist, just. 

Edited January 19, 2019 by Ravelin
Added panorama, after several attempts

[lorenzo]

Cracking pics Ravelin - GFS 12z looking very good for NE Scotland..