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Short Term Model discussion 03/01/19 onwards


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Latest  T72 fax compared to this mornings T84 shows the northerly for mid-week straight from the Arctic.


1916037521_fax72s(1).thumb.gif.505cd709349bde320ea1f67f1e7cfdb8.giffax84s.thumb.gif.ecdbfa85e8eb14badec2cde3830c6536.gif

A bit of westward correction since earlier.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - changeable but getting colder. The Atlantic still relatively warm apart from the baroclinic area off the eastern seaboard.

t120.thumb.png.67eb03f9ef55786c7875013fbc186864.pngcdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.thumb.png.2719c296a11269b378f953ccb26a1e74.png

The NH 500mb profile and surface analysis for midnight

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.6f146c5917d4a301f5a5d01c67683065.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.a37b60baa44001a56e77a977afea3960.gif

Much of England and Wales will start the day cloudy and mild in the warm sector as the warm front clears to the east. This will remain the case for the rest of the day with maybe some patchy rain/drizzle in the west later. But the rain already into western Scotland, associated with the cold front, will persist all day, with the heavier belt moving a little north.

p09.thumb.png.6f99606236374190c350b3a29041643b.pngp14.thumb.png.5250e4cb749cf1f6b9f6f55d57a06d38.pngp18.thumb.png.af6b14cce5da36cfdb7f462584f9d9f2.png

The rain will persist through the evening and overnight and the main belt, which is quite heavy at times, will move south east with the front as the wave tracks east towards Norway Showers then across western Scotland later and there will also be showery outbreaks in the south west associated with astray occlusion. Generally mild but colder air creeping into northern Scotland behind the front

PPVE89.thumb.gif.d15559ed364ad100bd3823e820f34bb3.gifr00.thumb.png.d21300703a0177681cc41ed7176c7192.pngr03.thumb.png.4a8eb0a6e4453a9442ff03bb75bc1674.pngr06.thumb.png.ff67eae6cc71eaf91f074ea2f33716bf.png

The cold front and belt of heavy rain will continue to track south east through Wednesday leaving colder conditions in it's wake with some heavy squally showers, which could well fall as snow on the higher ground in the north The front will clear the south east by mid afternoon but Exeter have found a myriad of fronts and troughs to fill the gap.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.a529894d52c8356ee40cf15f94808b93.gifs09.thumb.png.cdb268d9f03e6beed4e48d5b5a509dca.pngs12.thumb.png.0b20a72da29ad4f7caf42d480beb7eca.pngs15.thumb.png.011aa40939912d65f40825a254369db2.pngs18.thumb.png.42dc7b09ce7a8574738b7ecf6b005457.png1530973551_maxw.thumb.png.4916e137a793be335d607bec46ae1432.png

So overnight Wed and through Thursday the country is well and truly in the colder Arctic air resulting in a very cold day with a few wintry showers in the north. This timing is quite important as to the west a low is tracking through the ridge, en route to the UK

gfs_z500_vort_natl_11.thumb.png.1b3b9279fe016954e4e69f1b65590513.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.c56b4e9b2a7eaa08685b84f73e56720e.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.6ea490127f6e78dc1b25f8f20f15e513.gif

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.ac5c84519313d6c9ad4335a933289f99.png

By Friday midday the filling low is west of Ireland with the occlusion just impacting Cornwall. But it's struggling to track further east against the blocking ridge although it will produce some rain and hill snow over western regions as it hits the very cold air in situ as it does gain some traction

gfs_z500_vort_natl_15.thumb.png.19b807a6f3353b07cf4072da7665f939.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.8940d1d8d882752fe383ed0f8bb51cee.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.e4ca99b9c4da01411d0dc704651e0f8a.png

Some patchy rain may linger into Saturday in western regions as the low continues to fill west of Cornwall with the high pressure again ridging to the west Generally not so cold.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.c9cff46d383484959017300896ca5998.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.c91190dc446fb9f4e0a5350c708942d4.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_20.thumb.png.7391b272f885738a2b5a331163bcb1e7.png

And the NH profile for T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.e715286faf8630623263b76483c46617.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.c48012ab12171c01f10e8abd44f85f6a.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 minute ago, knocker said:

Some interesting wave clouds over Scotland and the north west at 1300

modis.thumb.JPG.23063ccc1b807d0ad437321d3fb61e51.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.9c9d83c8305752f8557a0cc67e0e7a61.gif

Yes there some overhead here this morning

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - getting colder

The 500mb NH profile and surface analysis for midnight

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.ad3c87948c0f9844fb748d1c25b99cb2.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.d682e25fa7dd61050a0ab35cf81f8b28.gif

The cold front and band of rain are currently over N. Ireland and southern Scotland and they will continue to travel south east through the day, clearing the south coast by 1800..In their wake much cooler air and this will get colder as further troughs slip south in the, now, northerly circulation. This will initiate some heavy wintry showers, on the higher ground but down to the surface later. Initially mainly in Scotland but spreading further south later A much colder say than yesterday.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.7d8c072886744bfb56c1aa7ea6d6ce0c.gif1227086909_maxw.thumb.png.2d54b5071847e4e74c08adaaab7d7a9c.pngp09.thumb.png.9d224ade8ff7eabab6e7727933465955.pngp12.thumb.png.bf9847b9dd5ff63e85d3e3a5570cf2e9.pngp15.thumb.png.eb0948eeaffb1aa9cc5c70247f131c07.pngp18.thumb.png.9320926683e7099ccb308f1a0ff4eb9c.png

The showers will continue this evening with possible snow down to lower levels in northern England and Wales as well but tending to die out later. A very cold night with widespread frost by morning

PPVG89.thumb.gif.4fe76c44b5bb6e4d002a4e3a3945e980.gif1935801710_mint.thumb.png.b0b41894e0bd28bcd5b72ae3fc76657d.pngsnow.thumb.png.02ae301628e221646b7104ecd2a12e3e.png

Thursday a very cold day in the lighter winds as a ridge builds from the south west, and just the odd wintry shower in Scotland and down the east coast.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.dd1ec2a909334ba3083c8b86c746fc69.gif1794695310_maxt.thumb.png.b49a25a9afd0e4621c1f8d178c654a49.pngr14.thumb.png.0bb6226ba3866588eaf927c992b4fb53.png

Over Thursday night and through Friday the ridge remains influential but to west a filling low is nudging east and the associated occlusion will be down the east coast of Ireland by midday. This could bring some light rain and snow flurries later otherwise a dry and pretty cold day after a very frost start in places.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.e1482a67cdeb53ed8b37150990d68602.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.c51a0d44b18bec940110c5cd1cef26df.gif

gfs_t2min_c_uk2_10.thumb.png.ab7f961fb2cb0ab8254b2943d6fb63f2.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.014325c94f60aadf87972e458430e953.png

The shallow low continues to fill and slip south east over Cornwall on Saturday as the subtropical high to the west starts to ridge north east. So still some patchy light rain around in the south on a day that is not quite as cold.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_15.thumb.png.6d5f8839c062c6631b60845b0f0918ca.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.72d8bddba5891da8517e90b605670fe0.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.24a186095f79d00913c1fb3b9458a343.gif

Sunday will be a generally dry day, perhaps some patchy light rain lingering a while in the south, but later the cold front associated with the low over Iceland will track south easy accompanied by a band of rain/ sleet or snow.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.c24f90e6e93df5c1e89ac7bd6957017e.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.c2e78b2b12fe2f487dad5acfa8b7dde3.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_20.thumb.png.182f89128866442317f091b04bf68a96.png

And the NH profile for T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.c7b3b0e73fff7d189c674f5cbbe32324.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.467270abfde3dcacb3f551b97ba1db50.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Today's cold front is just about clearing the south east at the moment  with some showers still around i nthe south west. But the much colder air with the frequent wintry showers of snow, even down to low ground in Scotland, will be associated with the occlusion that will move south through the night. (Note the Lerwick midday sounding)

As it tracks south the wintry showers will effect northern and central England and Wales as well but the snow will be mainly be on the higher ground. So by morning it will be very cold everywhere with possibly a lot of ice around.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.e91aa3cd5a765a21d23fe0921e8930d1.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.23419d9cf2a3e1ca76ecaadc9835b7bc.gif2019011612.03005.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.54a814d1c44d8bc46ba54ed23e19f009.gif

p20.thumb.png.de1443c2e08d36649c57b828b076f88d.pngp00.thumb.png.352ebea6921bbf1cb8163872a970e3ce.pngp03.thumb.png.235f0bc93e7a923ce1804d80739d1ca2.pngp06.thumb.png.0d01c2d955f9cb854a08aa8155091382.pngmin.thumb.png.eebf8c29316c3ca5622825a556cb5166.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - the colder weather has arrived and will stick around a while

The NH 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.44989bcb18ede0ebc5888640cd116ad1.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.90c5355e2360703afffd53332f11e752.gif

and the Nottingham sounding and latest surface chart

2019011700.03354.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.4f83fda32e1f127ba07aa74ade5c5df4.gif04.thumb.gif.f09430240facfab61f97124999a5cf7a.gif

As can be seen by the last two the colder air has arrived everywhere apart from the far south where the cold front is just clearing.with some rain still around. So a frosty and cold start to the day with some showers along north and  eastern regions which could be of snow. These will hang around during the day but the wind will ease as the ridge moves in leaving a sunny and cold day in most places.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.70ffd7c43bc5974ee249212b2172d7d1.gif1122864055_maxt.thumb.png.3dce759d1367d6122a788bf5747df83d.png

The showers will die out during the evening leaving a clear and cold night with a widespread frost by morning. But by 06 cloud and rain from the approaching occlusion will be effecting western regions

PPVG89.thumb.gif.4f0b19ced0d07730f59206ff5e7fd19e.gifmin.thumb.png.f047c7aaf87df0f5b70fac0d97b5539f.pngp06.thumb.png.ae887face0b373941e3ea226630fe62f.png

The front will edge east through Friday along with the precipitation which will be a mix of rain, sleet and snow, the latter more prevalent on the higher ground but perhaps lower as well in north western regions. Another cold day.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.392feb2f7183b082dc8adb935a50a616.gif502356250_maxf.thumb.png.03c70451df89dd6b53c03e8c2f880d62.png

p12.thumb.png.47cc994412ad17c0085480c3a8c40489.pngp15.thumb.png.0f02953a179796b1735bd0653296ca54.pngp18.thumb.png.d0fa5371e7ce85fc4cdacc217081f4f7.png

The weakening front will continue to edge east overnight Friday and through saturday so patchy rain around, still likely to be of snow on the high ground, but slightly less cold

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.8cc23cfdc0a8605f74f0dc9892a097f2.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.b4be665fbbf9374f24dbcc5e0f5728de.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.b4591f8dd5edf15446f9ee5be920d7d7.png

But overnight Saturday and through Sunday an occlusion associated with a shallow low around Iceland has tracked south east and this will bring some wintry showers with, particularly in the north west. At the same time an eye must be kept on developments to the west and a major trough has tracked east from Canada and is around the tip of Greenland.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_15.thumb.png.49d6ce47cb0c9ee97f045540c0dd3c5c.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.5be35547bc846dee25cf7049905d1fa2.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.4787f674a1f004b68e9ab05db6da20bd.png

The trough tracks east overnight and by 12 Monday the associated fronts are approaching north west Scotland and by evening a belt of rain will be effecting northern and western regions, likely snow over the higher ground in Scotland, as the front(s) track south east

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.a54e0d9086218372798025fa841bdcb6.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.487a36090f0c25378338854af2d634d0.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.1a14d871c62a8d4bbd90f620a0ad4dc7.png

And the NH profile for T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.18edf6b20ba0ff6a13762ff2df517127.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.da8397413db0bfd48b847df523a047f7.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

Excellent summaries above as always Knocker, a pleasure to read short term certainty of cold weather, rather than FI chasing.The precipitation on it's way through tomorrow could bring a nice surprise for a few locations.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Cloud from the approaching warm front ahead of the main system is already evident at Valentia and the initial sporadic precipitation will start effecting the south west by 0100.  The main belt will quickly follow  with some snow on the higher ground in Wale, N. Ireland western Scotland. A very cold morning with a widespread frost

At the moment some Cu here with Cu flattening out to Sc

PPVA89.thumb.gif.19d5a243e42d3eafea6dcfec619e06de.gif2019011712.03953.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.ee43227401482c063d01fed6dcab466e.gif

p01.thumb.png.329076d807079d816f4e16fa655b240f.pngp04.thumb.png.c5be6542e9764288a852a4925618a0eb.pngp08.thumb.png.b36de4d0f729526151c3d2ec57d77fce.pngp12.thumb.png.abf4741e814b83bd2e84c733fb80cd1d.pngmin.thumb.png.485f8a8b04f6242250de90ad772a754f.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
3 hours ago, knocker said:

A pleasant change

modis.thumb.JPG.30aa96cdf3fba70c53a513ff9880815b.JPG

 

That is an epic shot of the famous Pembrokeshire dangler! 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - remaining cold and unsettled

The 500mn and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 surface chart

2019011800_eur_full_500.thumb.gif.d3077fd1bf9c9a9e6afb9c5cd7911bfd.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.d08f8bbe558fa199e3312b8b108de7e2.gif03.thumb.gif.3d068e6c2c23df3ce1fc7ad271634887.gif

You can see from the latter that there is a widespread, quite severe, frost this morning which lead on to a sunny and cold day in eastern regions. But a belt of rain associated with the occlusion is already effecting N. Ireland and south west Wales and England. This will track east during the day with perhaps some snow flurries on the moors in the south west but more likely on the higher ground in Wales and the north west of England

PPVE89.thumb.gif.0587a36edc234fe525de5edbe125afa5.gif1987592867_maxf.thumb.png.ac36b6605c7aeb8a693a0dcb34b29df6.pngp09.thumb.png.008c0592f3d5bc737425bbb29b745923.pngp12.thumb.png.5342e0dc332e5b491b3edebafdcece3f.pngp15.thumb.png.78ba4435c29634ce583589d1ffd0920d.pngp18.thumb.png.1b42994159b45c5e085251678534b6b3.png

Through this evening and overnight the patchy rain, sleet and snow will spread to all areas except norther Scotland , the snow more likely in the north, so not as cold tomorrow morning as today.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.2b11e433d4a579708e963735211bf361.gifmin.thumb.png.763a7bfaae007152a2a28911865ed186.pngr21.thumb.png.5734e1017b3c60b79965ada1c0246e25.png

r00.thumb.png.d058a3367a887e3709b83ae80da6cf57.pngr03.thumb.png.9ceaff0048ad37956c2cb07dd35bbb47.pngr06.thumb.png.c00d03dad1f3b8165cdae3b81602c7aa.png

This is pretty much the story for Saturday with norther Scotland remaining cold and dry but the main area of the rain will move east but some heavy showers will spring up behind which could be heavy in the south west

PPVI89.thumb.gif.44843ee0df784761c41182f061498f12.gif489813356_maxs.thumb.png.09767ad8767a30539062ce98d6d2cabb.pngpr14.thumb.png.5a077bc55524eae62763aa5b866757ed.png

This frontal system will clear over night Saturday but a cold front associated with a low tracking north of Iceland will move south east down the country on Sunday giving some snow on the high ground in Scotland but patchy rain further south as it weakens.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.4f6285ed9530a5a92f736bf6a3d3ff72.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.51ea650112d8d48a1501a8bf0dd41c4a.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.be27b74d72e53443d33bdabff3c554c5.png

On Monday , after a quiet start to the day, it will become increasingly windy with gales in exposed areas and heavy rain and snow (mainly in the Scotland) will spread south east on a cold front associated with a complex low over Iceland

gfs_z500_vort_natl_15.thumb.png.6f2fa8c3ecdbb9ac30951c68b560fcf3.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.f735c42602237c3a8d638d2dc38fd81d.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_16.thumb.png.282c0207fe11cbb53223968338b067f3.png

This situation continues through Monday evening and early Tuesday but from this point the scenario becomes more complex as the the subtropical high pressure amplifies in mid Atlantic and the filling trough is forced down across the UK as the cold front slips into the North Sea. And this is all connected to the trough tracking up the east coast of the US. There are still doubts about how this will precisely pan out.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.3d303259ab9e141e03118b8372cea324.pnggfs_uv250_natl_19.thumb.png.637fcd6d9fc670a12ede9f2f22c810db.png

PPVO89.thumb.gif.99d85cd0b16583dea464e7a92ddbd55a.gifgfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_20.thumb.png.a30a4862818b64847c014e367adb4dc8.png

And the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.ff40fa9f42db723e9a618cdcb50d38d6.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

One of the indices, of many, that can be used to decide on whether the precipitation will be of snow at low levels is the 1000-850 thickness with, as a rule of thumb, 1290 > 1300m being the transition. Just a quick glance at this with wrf this morning . Of course high ground complicates this further

s18.thumb.png.b46d05a2a0c795760c9b360e42e57074.pngt18.thumb.png.50b3ff3bdd9a237abb98a42291ce3f83.png

s21.thumb.png.9ee2c08c13bd26b4df05b5a24d702402.pngt21.thumb.png.ec57fb08d4a07b86461ec3874cec20cc.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This evening the patchy rain, sleet and snow associated with the occlusion will track north east. The snow will mainly be confined to the higher ground in central/southern Scotland, northern England and the North Midlands. There could well be some heavy showers tagging along behind in the south west, Generally frost free by morning apart from the north of Scotland.

it's cracking late afternoon here

PPVE89.thumb.gif.211b6ac02eb4b18e92d308f2e3abacf3.gifmin.thumb.png.43405754542f90fd47baaad2686748f9.pngr21.thumb.png.4382de21bf1e77f04eaa135b7853f878.pngr00.thumb.png.cadc74cb4a6d7c1ad1ba5725c0a93ed5.pngr03.thumb.png.f59902ec339d49682f60633e9153e273.pngr06.thumb.png.da683b05ca3d1fa0e463705f88703615.png

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