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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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Posted (edited)

Never fear for I have found Winter lurking on the best model of them all...CFS! 🎅

Lovely charts which I would sell my granny for and only at +402 hours...! 😃🙏

Now that is the REAL DEAL! 

 

2F0EB6B8-C998-4ED6-8EFC-8F23339E29B4.png

DAB7CDB5-0D6C-4237-A4A7-DFD18A6A34DA.png

41ABC98C-6C3D-4816-8A40-CE19008B5547.png

Edited by Mr Frost

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4 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

this looks nice..

 

It’s still there.......

where did you get that from? 

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3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

wheres my post gone😢😢

Bottom of previous page ?

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3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

another..

DwUmbiGXgAAat7a.jpeg

Well that is one decent signal   just got to get it to verify now.

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think you are underestimating the intellects of quite a few people gtltw...IMO, habitual toy-throwers will always find some reason to dispense with their rattles: 'wrong' teleconnections, 'imprecise' MetO updates, FI charts, no-snow-in-my-backyard, you name it...?🤔

Quite possibly. The NWP outputs and teleconnections are the most sophisticated tools we currently have these days. The rest are just tools. If only they looked at themselves in the mirror once in a while. Anyway, enough, I'm derailing quickly this thread myself.

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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Just now, Sweatyman said:

this looks nice..

DwUma1rX0AAsWgV.jpeg

This is what I'm expecting. As a few have already, I suggest that we may see a sudden change in the models for that period, around the last week of Jan. The SSW will not have been all in vain in spite of the longish delay in its effect on the trop.

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9 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

another..

DwUmbiGXgAAat7a.jpeg

Nice charts mate . This second one you posted is looking better than the first one you posted cold more intense over Europe. Let’s hope these come off . 

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10 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

not true 1946 -47 had lots of cold and snow in December and early Jan...anyway looking at the GFS and the parallel run lots of the cold seems to being pushed out into N. America

Indeed, he should have said the big freeze of 1947.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

another..

DwUmbiGXgAAat7a.jpeg

Looks perfect to me............what could possibly go wrong ..........lol 

Hi Pete sarcasm trumps all in my book 😉

Edited by Fozfoster

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1 minute ago, Fozfoster said:

Looks perfect to me............what could possibly go wrong ..........lol

That's two weeks worth there of cold, at that time of the year, just one word, could be....EPIC!:yahoo:

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32 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

It's a lesser  spotted split polar vortex lama....! 

 

Count down to that spitting some cold air our way!

Just needs to be pulled the right way for long enough to spit some cold. 

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Posted (edited)

ECM ensemble mean at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.d0d5c8e4d2dbb2dffbabbae78ad2802d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c753dca5a30af6c0ead3efe06cdc02a4.jpg

Of course this needs to be interpreted probabilistically, but I think we will need some movement on the balance of where the stronger element of the vortex lands up, don't want it to be the Canada one, but from the GFS output post at 240 the strat impact only just being felt, so plenty of time for this to change.

Edited by Mike Poole

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM anomaly for Feb is interesting as it has below average temps quite widely for the UK and Ireland it also has above average precipitation

89783744717791255c302498cfe72b094b6bdf5d702xH0v.png

 

Get in there!! 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM anomaly for Feb is interesting as it has below average temps quite widely for the UK and Ireland it also has above average precipitation

89783744717791255c302498cfe72b094b6bdf5d0291060868a7d994115ca9b602f9f60507a82039

 

 

 

What's interesting is the anomalies over the med which screams sliders/battleground. Really feels like a 47 set up

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM anomaly for Feb is interesting as it has below average temps quite widely for the UK and Ireland it also has above average precipitation

89783744717791255c302498cfe72b094b6bdf5d0291060868a7d994115ca9b602f9f60507a82039

 

 

 

Yes please 😁⛄

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Posted (edited)

delete

Edited by Leon1

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Down we go on the ECM ENS

Certainly been a good day on the models, I think the days of depressing morning after morning are over! 

Yes, from what I've seen of the models today, and the strat charts, we should see a steady march towards wintry weather from about 22 Jan on model output over the next week or so.  Earlier, we may get lucky with a 'wedge' although I'm inclined to think probably not.  

Can it all go wrong? 

Yes, absolutely.

Do I think it will?

No, the strat output appears now to allow a ridge in a decent location as others have pointed out earlier in the thread.  And if it happens, it could influence our weather for at least a month.  Eyes glued to the models for the next week as this signal takes shape! 👁️👁️

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