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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    if we didn’t know about the SSW etc and were just taking the likes of ECM at face value then the prospects of a decent cold snap would be looking pretty slim,the high pressure to the SW is a constant pain this winter,so far...

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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

    Absolutely, they are 9,900 minutes nearer the reliable timeframe than a t+384 chart. It is precisely this that people view (D10 to D16 charts whatever the minutes are, lol) as a given and vent their frustrations as they do not recur in the way a coldie would like. I think we ALL must state timeframes and caveats involved as often as is possible in our posts to avoid the toy-throwing and take everybody reading as being a newbie to the Meteorology game. 

    I think you are underestimating the intellects of quite a few people gtltw...IMO, habitual toy-throwers will always find some reason to dispense with their rattles: 'wrong' teleconnections, 'imprecise' MetO updates, FI charts, no-snow-in-my-backyard, you name it...??

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Thankfully the ECM does get rid of the high although I got this horrid thought it may put up a bigger fight than shown. So cool zonal possible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Decent ECM following the GFS trend  countdown continues

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Just now, nick sussex said:

    Relief at last . The ECM adding more amplitude upstream at day ten . Just the first signs of a change .

    We now need this to countdown into the more reliable timeframe.

    and digging se at day 10 in our longtitude ……...want to see that 'flatter pattern' in the transition period as advertised on both eps suites yesterday dispensed with

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, The PIT said:

    Thankfully the ECM does get rid of the high although I got this horrid thought it may put up a bigger fight than shown. So cool zonal possible.

    at this stage i'd say v likely though watch for those wedges or runners into the base of the trough

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    A chart to back up the postsScreenshot_20190107-190924_Chrome.thumb.jpg.90158237a3136d56747ec86772333485.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Relief at last . The ECM adding more amplitude upstream at day ten . Just the first signs of a change .

    We now need this to countdown into the more reliable timeframe.

    Yes, i have noticed a nice digging trough into the USA recently, that seems like it might do the trick.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    12 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Aren't we all but purple headed yogurt slinger has other intentions..?

    Ukmo.

    UN144-21 (2).gif

     

    Edited by Seasonality
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    Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
    6 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    Ukmo.

    UN144-21 (2).gif

    UN144-21 (2).gif

    It's a lesser  spotted split polar vortex lama....! 

     

    Count down to that spitting some cold air our way!

    Edited by Chertseystreamer79
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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

     

    all i say the gfs is looking great after 300 hr   i know its fantasy world   but it might happen!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    8 minutes ago, terrier said:

    Very nice looking ecm at day 10 this evening. Let’s try and remember that day 10 chart is the 17th of January so we still have it all to play for. As the winter of 1947 didn’t get going until the 23rd of January and never stopped until March. ??

    This is true. And remember that last week of Jan and first week of Feb are historically the coldest two weeks of winter, if the right set up were to turn up that started around that time, and I'm not saying it will, chances are it could be epic.

     

    After the 2nd week of Feb though things change a fair bit, it can certainly still snow and in abundance, we saw this last year of course so we know that, and there can still be a long cold spell, but less chance of the same sort of deep freeze.

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    9 minutes ago, terrier said:

    Very nice looking ecm at day 10 this evening. Let’s try and remember that day 10 chart is the 17th of January so we still have it all to play for. As the winter of 1947 didn’t get going until the 23rd of January and never stopped until March. ??

    not true 1946 -47 had lots of cold and snow in December and early Jan...anyway looking at the GFS and the parallel run lots of the cold seems to being pushed out into N. America

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    Never fear for I have found Winter lurking on the best model of them all...CFS! ?

    Lovely charts which I would sell my granny for and only at +402 hours...! ??

    Now that is the REAL DEAL! 

     

    2F0EB6B8-C998-4ED6-8EFC-8F23339E29B4.png

    DAB7CDB5-0D6C-4237-A4A7-DFD18A6A34DA.png

    41ABC98C-6C3D-4816-8A40-CE19008B5547.png

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

    this looks nice..

     

    It’s still there.......

    where did you get that from? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

    wheres my post gone??

    Bottom of previous page ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

    another..

    DwUmbiGXgAAat7a.jpeg

    Well that is one decent signal   just got to get it to verify now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
    41 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    I think you are underestimating the intellects of quite a few people gtltw...IMO, habitual toy-throwers will always find some reason to dispense with their rattles: 'wrong' teleconnections, 'imprecise' MetO updates, FI charts, no-snow-in-my-backyard, you name it...??

    Quite possibly. The NWP outputs and teleconnections are the most sophisticated tools we currently have these days. The rest are just tools. If only they looked at themselves in the mirror once in a while. Anyway, enough, I'm derailing quickly this thread myself.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    Just now, Sweatyman said:

    this looks nice..

    DwUma1rX0AAsWgV.jpeg

    This is what I'm expecting. As a few have already, I suggest that we may see a sudden change in the models for that period, around the last week of Jan. The SSW will not have been all in vain in spite of the longish delay in its effect on the trop.

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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