Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    tempresult_hxt9.gif tempresult_fas4.gif

    The control was the way I was thinking the op was heading^^^

    Lots going on and this may be one of those instances where we have to wait till it sorts itself out, hopefully by the end of the week!

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.4k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    6 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    When people crop their images, could they please do it so we can see the run details, like which date, run, perbutation etc ?

    ?

    EF728880-C10C-44E2-B747-99ECD8C8A22A.png

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
    39 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    We might be on the cusp of a monster?:cold:

    image.thumb.png.772d95a293de3d9c528367b364a48a04.png

    These t+20,800 minutes charts are getting tedious now. 

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    Just now, Ali1977 said:

    ?

    EF728880-C10C-44E2-B747-99ECD8C8A22A.png

    Cheers - wasn't meant as a dig at you by the way.  It happens a lot and your post merely reminded me of it!

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Although the Para  isnt showing a greenie high like the 6z  it really is quite snowy for some with the Vortex  suffering somewhat  with yet again  the high to the west of the USA making inroads to the pole    At the moment all eyes seem to be around the 20th ish  for a change to colder weather  

    gfsnh-0-336.png

    Edited by weirpig
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    FV3 at T360:

    image.thumb.jpg.f6009710a82673c464ba423f410678ff.jpg

    My take on today's runs is that GFS and FV3 are now seeing the downwelling from the strat in the latter part of their runs, but by this point the trop modelling is already well into FI and has gone off the rails, so no consistency on how the high lat blocks or trop vortex splits set up...it may now just be a question of counting down until some consistency emerges about what the trop pattern will look like come ~22 January.

    Edited by Mike Poole
    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    Personally, I’m very encouraged by today’s developments.

    I mentioned yesterday all eyes to circa 20th Jan approx for a steep change and I’ve seen nothing today to change this.

    The GFS ensembles have been displaying some potent ensemble members over the last few days, these will continue to increase in numbers over the coming days.

    We need to remember the affects of the SSW are very much in the early stages and this may take a few more days to show up significantly across the NWP suites.

    I have a good feeling this time next week the model suites will be looking very appealing indeed.

    Keep the faith....winter is coming....

     

    A

    Edited by East801
    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Increasing trend to see some sort of (albeit quite messy) HLB around the +300hr mark, which while it remains in that range falls into chocolate teapot category of usefulness.

    It seems since around mid December that whenever a cold trend has started to gain some traction, the northern arm of the jet fires up and blasts hope away.

    Perhaps the events in the strat are yet to fully reveal the effects in the trop, but I am starting to think this might be a bit of a Murphy's Law type of winter. At least until the last 3rd when the jet might ease off a bit.

     

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    This looks about what we would expect, assuming the forecast, for transient northerlies during the run-up to the main event, is correct:

    image.thumb.png.b78cdacba6034e7f5161ac6dd3d0e124.png

    Are charts for T+219 still permissible BTW??

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Hints from the ECM that our friend the high is moving back in over the UK. Already a big dig difference at T120 between the GFS and ECM. We could be going for a rinse and repeat session of nothingness.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath

    The ECM is fine considering it doesn't even cover the time period we are now looking at so I don't know what some people were expecting.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Nice little ridge between Iceland and Greenland at 144 

    FCDF8B75-7140-42D8-86A6-D3E8CCF825E3.thumb.png.f5913671aa8cce836b24a77ac4f360a0.png

    Edited by karlos1983
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    I keep seeing reference to the 20th as a date of change.

    Well I hope we do get the change, though I remain cautious that even the PV in pieces doesn't mean it necessarily ends up in the right positions to give us what we want!

    But seeing some of those drastic changes being thrown up to the size and position of large chunks of the PV, i'm gonna hazard a guess here.  If we are gonna get the type of weather we are all hoping for, I don't think it's going to arise through gradual changes that take us through to the 20th.  I think it's far more likely we get a sudden flip in the models in the next couple of days that start showing some real potential for something to come up as early as this weekend.  

     

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Nice little ridge between Iceland and Greenland at 144 

    FCDF8B75-7140-42D8-86A6-D3E8CCF825E3.thumb.png.f5913671aa8cce836b24a77ac4f360a0.png

    If the purple monster ALL moves into Scandinavia we'll be in business.  No PV left behind in Southern Greenland please.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    4 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

    The ECM is fine considering it doesn't even cover the time period we are now looking at so I don't know what some people were expecting.

    I think pit was on about subtle changes from this morning.not much point following EC then really if it's under 10-15days then ?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    Just now, mountain shadow said:

    If the purple monster ALL moves into Scandinavia we'll be in business.  No PV left behind in Southern Greenland please.

    That is not going to happen purple monster grows from 144hr onwards in every run to date.

    ECH1-168.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

    I keep seeing reference to the 20th as a date of change.

    Well I hope we do get the change, though I remain cautious that even the PV in pieces doesn't mean it necessarily ends up in the right positions to give us what we want!

    But seeing some of those drastic changes being thrown up to the size and position of large chunks of the PV, i'm gonna hazard a guess here.  If we are gonna get the type of weather we are all hoping for, I don't think it's going to arise through gradual changes that take us through to the 20th.  I think it's far more likely we get a sudden flip in the models in the next couple of days that start showing some real potential for something to come up as early as this weekend.  

     

    Scepticism is good, beats playing follow-the-leader any day of the week...??

    Here's the FV3's prediction for January 19 - a pattern that has been repeated several times, since the weekend...Doesn't guarantee its rightness, though...

    image.thumb.png.3b9b9161ac78d0c02584510831a7377e.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    9 minutes ago, booferking said:

    That is not going to happen purple monster grows from 144hr onwards in every run to date.

    ECH1-168.gif

    I'm just dreaming the dream of December 16th 2010

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

    By t192  ECM (15th Jan), you can see the main core of heights (deeper orange), leaking away to the S.W.

    image.thumb.png.67a82f93061dc58123336090f442aa44.png

    Regards,

    Tom. :hi:

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Will heights get up the western side of greenland? Probably too flat 

    45C32A05-8F06-4A75-BB56-9C0F563B3D1C.png

    Probably too soon?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
    26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    This looks about what we would expect, assuming the forecast, for transient northerlies during the run-up to the main event, is correct:

    image.thumb.png.b78cdacba6034e7f5161ac6dd3d0e124.png

    Are charts for T+219 still permissible BTW??

    Absolutely, that chart is 9,900 minutes nearer the reliable timeframe than your previous t+384hr chart. ? It is precisely this that people view (D10 to D16 charts whatever they be in minutes) as a given and accordingly vent their frustrations as they do not recur in the way a coldie would like. I think we ALL should state timescales and usual caveats involved as often as is possible in our posts to avoid the toy-throwing and take everybody reading as being a newbie to the Meteorology game. 

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...