Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Oi Oi saveloy 

    image.thumb.png.75cf7f3e3f81764771f83354fb1e9aba.png

    Perfect! PV in tatters and lobe of death should be banished!! nice end coming 

    Yep.

    As again the pc forcing..looking v-decent for gain...ignore the large lobe...her days are surely numbered!..

    Everything else looks primmed.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.4k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    The GFS is so confused,it's throwing heights absolutely everywhere 

    image.thumb.png.9579b1ed19ab085e744dc09a64870b2c.pngimage.thumb.png.f8345135964bf1703534bcfdcf998511.png

    Messy :whistling:

    Edited by karlos1983
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    PV is definitely on the ropes again on this run but remains just where we don’t want it unfortunately 

    DF217950-4B73-4039-BB56-649EAD9A03A1.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    The real carnage is about to begin, there will be blocking here there and everywhere in the next week or so. The UKMO will find the correct pattern first I think, just a waiting game for now to see where the chunks of vortex end up.

    Looking forward to the next couple of weeks should be a good ride

    Edited by seabreeze86
    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

    Interesting to note the key phase around days 8-9 when a tropical wave forces a ridge over the Southern US and enhanced sub-tropical flow develops in the SW Atlantic. That seems to be the trigger to the sudden slowing in the mid latitude flow, but likely to be related to downwelling zonal wind signal.

    We certainly need the trigger point..

    And USA- looks the point of exposure!..

    The elongation(punch) on the pv (canadian sector) looks-pivotal!!....

    @ssw @ramifications

     

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    Interesting to note the key phase around days 8-9 when a tropical wave forces a ridge over the Southern US and enhanced sub-tropical flow develops in the SW Atlantic. That seems to be the trigger to the sudden slowing in the mid latitude flow, but likely to be related to downwelling zonal wind signal.

    Come on GP....I think this forum is in desperate need of one of your detailed , well  thought out projections in to the not too distant future...sprinkled with some snow on top ?

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    22 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Aye, but the main lobe is going to the worst place. Could still work, but it makes any ridge attempt far more likely to fail.

    True, the main lobe on the 06z just disintegrated where it sat, so maybe that could happen. Either way, we are still looking at around the 20th for any real interest

    Edited by Ali1977
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    We might be on the cusp of a monster?:cold:

    image.thumb.png.772d95a293de3d9c528367b364a48a04.png

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Well at least some changes are showing up within the day ten mark on the GFS.

    The ECM 00 hrs was less interested , we do need that to start showing the PV splitting .

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    True, the main lobe on the 06z just disintegrated where it sat, so maybe that could happen. Either way, we are still looking at around the 20th for any real interest

    Given the openings/already occured!.

    I think 20th-maybe and process in act/formats...

    I think that maybe a little late on!..

    The gain is on catch up...and we seem to be jogging now....not waliking!!!!

    @day 15/[email protected] point(overheads)

     

    Edited by tight isobar
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Looks like after the chunk of PV blows through around day 10 the overall picture is much better, and more amplified across the northern hem. Short term pain for long term gain. By the last 7-10 days of the month we could be finally quids in.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Couple of day 10 GEFS , upgrade in the ENS suite coming I think

    087DC148-617F-4B1B-AF66-225970E874C3.png

    Few more including the Control 

    71383FF3-4178-4E26-A80B-A795ABD03E92.png

    Edited by Ali1977
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Well at least some changes are showing up within the day ten mark on the GFS.

    The ECM 00 hrs was less interested , we do need that to start showing the PV splitting .

    We may throw a big enough ridge without actually seeing a full split nick ....unless we get a big reversal wave (which is certainly possible ) then I think the tpv will stretch with ridging our side towards svaalbard/n greeny feasible 

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    That will do me fine ! I’m more encouraged today and have decided to not be miserable until at least the end of the week !

    Id be happy to see some Cold Zonal why the PV moves to Scandinavian side , but guess that is based on location, but this Uk High is getting boring , especially as its not really been a clear cold high

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    That will do me fine ! I’m more encouraged today and have decided to not be miserable until at least the end of the week !

    Glad you are encouraged Nick. I must be getting model fatigue or blurred vision in the hunt for cold for blighty. My reading of GFS out to day 15 remains is underwhelming. Hope I am wrong of course and get a nice surprise in the next few runs, although probably best take a break and hope it all goes away ( the present stalemate ).

    C

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...