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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Was just about to post those.

    How people can say ICON is a fail is beyond me.

    only in regarding the early ridging and pv development!!

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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    9 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    For a model with a supposed westward/atlantic driven bias, it sure provides us with a lot of eye candy FI that never seems to materialise in upper resolution!

    I think its that far FI on GFS is so far out it tends to show very varying solutions, so it does spit out quite a few extremes within that broad range. Check out a really spaghettified ensemble set and there is everything including the kitchen sink and a set of matching units and worktop.

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    Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
    59 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Wave 2 with the weakest part of the vortex on our side (so the eventual split would push the primary vortex over the Pacific/Canada.

    An excellent outcome if ever there was one.

    Not sure im 100% right, but think it was the gfs picked up on this 2nd warning around christmas. Remember seeing it on here whilst enjoying the exceptionally  mild weather on linconshire's lakes ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

    Hello UKMO 144

    image.thumb.png.c0ad6a87b4c50c9c112beed3fb100117.png

    Yes a good one. Good cold air over Europe, vortex shifting nicely. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

    Hello UKMO 144

    image.thumb.png.c0ad6a87b4c50c9c112beed3fb100117.png

    mmm similar profile to the gfs  lets see where it goes

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Hello UKMO 144

    image.thumb.png.c0ad6a87b4c50c9c112beed3fb100117.png

    For the third day running but day 6 hasn’t really made day 4 has it ??

    my mind goes back to a similar period in 2013 when all was zonal (at least we currently have something that should be happening week 3) until ukmo day 5 suddenly split the flow and undercut ..... so never diss a ukmo chart but that is still quite meh in the great scheme of things - just a bit more amplified  with some potential 

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Hello UKMO 144

    image.thumb.png.c0ad6a87b4c50c9c112beed3fb100117.png

    That looks fairly decent to me.. I know it's not the timescale we are looking at, but we are lowering heights to our south and the UK high is on the move! Not a bad start to the 12z 

    No that is really good, I think that’s a step forward.......t168 would be good to see....Summer Sun/ Gav can you help?

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    No that is really good, I think that’s a step forward.......t168 would be good to see....Summer Sun/ Gav can you help?

     

    BFTP

    Is 168 back? I thought the US govt shutdown had stopped it updating. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    No that is really good, I think that’s a step forward.......t168 would be good to see....Summer Sun/ Gav can you help?

     

    BFTP

    Not sure we are getting the 168 Data at the moment because of the Shut down in the USA. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    No 168 available sadly. Blame that orange buffoon currently in charge across the pond.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    16 minutes ago, ITSY said:

    Well just to cheer people up, here is this mornings GFS strat forecast: full-on downwelling now modelled for the first time between the mid and long range. (Which is precisely what the GFSP showed this morning and what ICON, up until +180, indicates towards the end - with a cross polar flow East to West over the arctic). 

    However, this is only forecast. And it is only for the weather. There are a lot of grown ups in here behaving like children. If the weather doesn’t do as the background signals indicate it’s only because Mother Nature isn’t a linear equation - or at least not one that we fully understand just yet. It is not because you’ve all been lied to. The weather does its own thing and we all live on a mild island. Deal with it or take advantage of the next two months of free movement and migrate to Austria. 

    With a sense of perspective in hand, hopefully the 12Z will treat us well. If not, we shall endure. 

     

    9D2BD708-2BB2-4A52-AA23-BD4B533AE4DB.jpeg

    And note the short period of trop positive anomalies just prior to the predicted downwell negative anomalies...... hopefully this will occur just as suggested. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    UKMO looks better than the GFS at 144 but not sure much will come from it, it didn’t pan out on the GFS anyway!! PV not as strong on UKMO though so who knows!!

    B645B376-96DF-4D3C-9948-F6B8C71017BB.png

    41D83CD4-8A53-4300-9D0E-B8A8DDAC9BD8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    UKMO looks better than the GFS at 144 but not sure much will come from it, it didn’t pan out on the GFS anyway!! PV not as strong on UKMO though so who knows!!

    B645B376-96DF-4D3C-9948-F6B8C71017BB.png

    41D83CD4-8A53-4300-9D0E-B8A8DDAC9BD8.png

    Jet profile looks different on the UKMO compared to the GFS, there are some key differences both upstream and downstream, so I wouldn't expect the UKMO to follow the GFS to be honest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    3 minutes ago, sundog said:

    Only the cfs  but for the record the last 3rd of the month looks very nice. 

    tempresult_gdj0.gif

    looks fabulous but CFS,,,,

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    29 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Hello UKMO 144

    image.thumb.png.c0ad6a87b4c50c9c112beed3fb100117.png

    That looks fairly decent to me.. I know it's not the timescale we are looking at, but we are lowering heights to our south and the UK high is on the move! Not a bad start to the 12z 

    It's the purple vortex of death moving from Southern Greenland which fills me with more confidence, if it's absorbed into the Northern European portion then it gives us a better chance.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    Indeed  sweatyman however the last third of the month or so is when many are thinking if the chance of a cold spell so perhaps just perhaps it's onto something. 

    Edited by sundog
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    I think this looks promising and earlier. PV is separating 

    376CC007-F475-45EB-834C-7E0C02F0EF34.png

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    25 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    No that is really good, I think that’s a step forward.......t168 would be good to see....Summer Sun/ Gav can you help?

     

    BFTP

    Sadly not Trumps border wall has shut down government and the part of NOAA where it updates is offline until further notice 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    I think this looks promising and earlier. PV is separating 

    376CC007-F475-45EB-834C-7E0C02F0EF34.png

    Of course the main piece remains in one of the worst possible positions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    I think this looks promising and earlier. PV is separating 

    376CC007-F475-45EB-834C-7E0C02F0EF34.png

    Aye, but the main lobe is going to the worst place. Could still work, but it makes any ridge attempt far more likely to fail.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Oi Oi saveloy 

    image.thumb.png.75cf7f3e3f81764771f83354fb1e9aba.png

    Perfect! PV in tatters and lobe of death should be banished!! nice end coming 

    LOL it's mocking me now! lobe of death strikes back :spiteful:

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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