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phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Para 288  A trend is developing.

 

gfsnh-0-288.png

The vortex is not a happy bunny with that high pressure right over the pole!

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Posted (edited)

What we want to see is the spread increase indicating a pattern change is possible, this is the spread from around D10:

tempresult_xzq3.gif

Clear signs of the likely ongoing pattern being put under pressure from at best Atlantic Heights or at least wedges? It does not promise a change but highlights that at that point we have a possible trigger to pattern changes. 

At D10 we would expect the GFS to be over-zealous with the Atlantic flow, so a reasonable presumption is that the most likely signal is better heights as we near T0. 

The usual caveats as to expectations of GFS at D10, but the trend remains ongoing and the background signals back that potential up.

Edited by IDO

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5 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Surely much of this information is remotely accessed from sensors etc.

I think we are a bit beyond a man with a clip board.

Yes but plenty of data is going in manually as it comes from external observations. 

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I always have trouble with assessing Greenland HPs: are they part of something bigger or, like Katy Price, a purely surface phenomenon...For instance, is this one nothing more than a product of topographical enhancement?🤓

image.thumb.png.c5e9ab6c4d345eeabdfa699dba924f92.png

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Its been a long time since these kind of charts have been seen so apologises   but direct hit for the uk

gfsnh-0-348.png

image.thumb.png.35561be0299f44736111fb5d70f90b82.png

Behold, the path through the polar vortex and a route to the promised land

tenor.gif?itemid=9839978

Edited by Weather-history

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31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not bad, not amazing but reasonable at the end.

image.thumb.png.1df812883c320e4d3d42678f6f7091a3.png

Not that different to how the ECM ensembles saw things this morning. Lots of scatter at the end, space for modeling to go in many ways

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

On the individual ECM ensembles, not too different to last night, close to being 50/50 between cold/mild(ish) by D15 so potential is there, but no decisive breakthrough by the colder groupings to date. 

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not bad, not amazing but reasonable at the end.

image.thumb.png.1df812883c320e4d3d42678f6f7091a3.png

aye and some interesting looking ppn spikes if the temps play ball...

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I'm happy about the direction of travel from the models beyond this week towards a more changeable / unsettled pattern..at least it gives us a chance of colder incursions with snow potential, albeit especially on high ground and further north but it's a step in the right direction. This winter has been going nowhere with the predominantly benign mildish conditions but it looks like the shackles will soon be broken and we can move forward..hopefully towards that wintry nirvana which is still signalled longer term!👍❄️

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Hello

The swingometers are back again now that I have some time. Starting off here with January 20th. They don't look particularly exciting at the moment but some colder options are there. The 00z was actually a good set though the 06z set are more like recent runs. Rather academic at this range though unless we see a strong cold trend. The best of the lot is the 06z parallel which I am sure many would like.

image.thumb.png.af1d9e1f5b502a4bf4c90a766559e9aa.pngimage.thumb.png.16c9741de122b58e23739facfb2d88c6.png 

Globally the anomaly pattern isn't encouraging over the next 7 days or so... all the cold bottled up in the arctic and Siberia and probably explains the struggle to develop northern blocking during the first half of the month.

image.thumb.png.a933e4f5f16a357538db415ef4a081d6.png

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2 hours ago, mulzy said:

How can it be a bust as it’s only jan 7th?

Well you can at least take the next 7-10 days out of the equation so that takes us up to past mid-month. ec46 showing low heights over Scandi and heights towards Greenland/Iceland by week 3 (15th - 21st) and a stronger signal thereafter. We'll see come a few weeks time, might be a bit premature currently but you watch those days roll past without those signals coming to fruition.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Hello

The swingometers are back again now that I have some time. Starting off here with January 20th. They don't look particularly exciting at the moment but some colder options are there. The 00z was actually a good set though the 06z set are more like recent runs. Rather academic at this range though unless we see a strong cold trend. The best of the lot is the 06z parallel which I am sure many would like.

image.thumb.png.af1d9e1f5b502a4bf4c90a766559e9aa.pngimage.thumb.png.16c9741de122b58e23739facfb2d88c6.png 

Globally the anomaly pattern isn't encouraging over the next 7 days or so... all the cold bottled up in the arctic and Siberia and probably explains the struggle to develop northern blocking during the first half of the month.

image.thumb.png.a933e4f5f16a357538db415ef4a081d6.png

Quick

good to see it back.  However, that anomaly can’t be right with masssive cold swathe from Austria, Greece and Turkey?

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Its been a long time since these kind of charts have been seen so apologises   but direct hit for the uk

gfsnh-0-348.png

Oh now see... that’s just beautiful 

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Chio

Any musings on why the responses differ so much in time lag and size of response?  Should ask in Strat thread but if you see this maybe a response in there 

 

BFTP 

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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Quick

good to see it back.  However, that anomaly can’t be right with nassive cold swathe from Austria, Hreece and Turkey?

 

BFTP

Happy new year BFTP, that is the anomaly for T168 according to the GFS 🙂

I presume you are referring to the month so far? It has been rather cold over Europe at times.

image.thumb.png.76c60e7c34a3a37af0990add00bc3ad3.png

Fingers crossed things turn better for the end of the month

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Posted (edited)

It’s coming look, snow for the next 4 days looks pretty extensive on that hill!! 

Seriously though, I think the worst is past and there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel now. Hoping for decent 12zs, ECM looks like it still may be out of range for any good charts just yet though - we shall see!! 

E2694C9B-78DA-42A9-913B-20EAFB0A3922.png

Edited by Ali1977

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1 hour ago, Catacol said:

They are certainly taking their time.....but GEFS ensembles continue to show the same direction of travel as has been the case for days. Fact of the matter is that the SSW impact envelope is now pushing closer to the 3 week timespan rather than quicker...and this is frustrating for all on here who wish to see snow chances.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_53.thumb.png.d93aa878f20ea18450366c8ec183836d.png

Strat charts show the problem - out at 10 days a lovely split at 10hpa

ecmwf10f240.thumb.gif.67e99f46fe2238e7c4aa472c344cbba3.gif

but not mirrored yet in the lower strat where energy transfer noted by both @chionomaniac and @bluearmy has helped keep the atlantic blocked off to the heights that pacific forcing wish to push up.

ecmwf150f240.thumb.gif.94eb59c1b78b187f2e60783456fcdea5.gif

A detailed teleconnective post isn't required here. David has said it all....but to reiterate the key salient points: we have begun an orbit back into the higher momentum phases 5 - 8 of the GWO on the back of torque increases and the MJO passing into the key phases 6 - 8. We had a surge in momentum at New Year that is now waxing back down - that surge will have helped provide impetus, given lag, for height rises next week but it looks as though the nature of the SSW has scuppered it. Next surge will be timed to support height rises towards the end of the month. Those learning about pacific forcing will note the wax and wane of the cycle in broad terms over 10 -15 day periods as the atmosphere and earth conduct their constant jive to reduce momentum to zero, a process that can never be completed... and so we look for periods of upwards momentum to force the pattern into a new shape.

None of this is conjecture. In the meantime we sit and wait for the anticipated combined impacts of SSW downwell and good pacific background signals to unite and change the pattern of this winter. Interesting to note that MJO forecasts appear to want to bring it back to the 6-7-8 orbit quickly once the current progress wanes in the last third of the month. We know these MJO long term forecasts can be fraught with problems - but it ties in with an ongoing sense that something is in the wings. February is getting closer, and the interesting pattern (even if the synoptics right now are as dead as they can be over the south of the UK) looks like continuing. Remember that analysis of SSW events includes impacts out to 60 days after the event.

 

Great post, this is basically what I was saying earlier before a few people misread what I said, 

Everything is fraught with danger, especially when using teleconnections because people tend to put more weight into what's been said, but then with that comes the possible backlash when things don't go to plan, 

We like to think the background signals a more stable than the day to day running of the mods but I'm not sure anymore, because like you say it's the ssw that's scuppered next week amplification, so therefore we wait for the next wave of fun, but it only takes one of the variables to change then that could scupper the downwelling effects, 

So clarification, is winter over, NO!!!

Absolutely not i would never say such a thing, especially what we have had in March in more recent years (13/18) 

Are certain LRF's bust? Yes 100% 

But please understand I was not digging at anyone I'm in awe and very greatfull for the work and understanding that goes in year after year into lrf's. 

Hears to a foot of snow in Feb 👌👊

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