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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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ECM has a lovely sinking low that just needs to adjust course south, currently tracking SE missing us.

Morning runs seem to be a bit more positive, not sure I could take more doom and gloom in here.

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    10 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

    ECM has a lovely sinking low that just needs to adjust course south, currently tracking SE missing us.

    Morning runs seem to be a bit more positive, not sure I could take more doom and gloom in here.

    Aye...the sinking low/height-rise over Scandi combo would be great!

    image.thumb.png.9c64640074eaec1c8ce77c6ae2197416.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    With the pattern improving by the day, now would be just the time for @Tamara to make a post, regarding teleconnections, IMO...? As I, for one, am tempted to enter full-on ramp mode or FoRM!:yahoo:

    image.thumb.png.d3a07265a9a733a98df96f33b3a39d26.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
    3 hours ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    I think all of us, me, you, everybody else on hear, has to accept that this year already has been a bust blue, we have been talking up a cold spell since November, we had a brief easterly back in the first few days of Dec, since then we've been waiting for it to return, around xmas time, was the theme, then just after into the new year, then mid Jan, now post 20th jan which is really a month late.

    Nobody is to blame because the weather does what it wants and we look to computer models to get the predicted impacts of the mjo, Glamm forecasts, sst's, strat forecasts etc etc, but as the computer rea-justs to having to recaculate one of the impacts it misread, so therefore the entire forecast can and does move, yes we continue to try and make forecasts as we move our forecasts inline with the new data available, but I honestly think for me at least I take all things on hear with a huge pinch of salt, one of the many reasons why I'm so quiet this year, by all means enjoy our hobby, we all have that in common but anyone hanging there boots on this forum, needs to seriously lower there expectations, 

    Granted we have amazing talent on hear, and I enjoy reading them as much as anyone, but anybody claiming that this year isn't already a bust is deluding themselves, even if this winter does turn around finally and deliver what we've all been waiting for, is stil 4 weeks late, with feb looking more like the only month we have to deliver, after the potential the winter had due to the background signals etc it's looking increasingly likely the weather has very different ideas. 

    This is not a moan, a mere observation of what's happened, let's hope the winter delivers what we all want and hopefully I will be the first one to have egg thrown in my face. 

    Have a good one ?

    I think to put too much emphasis on model outputs is fraught with pit falls I tend to rely on old school methods and gut instinct. Never let you down yet have I SSIB .  

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    3 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

    I think to put too much emphasis on model outputs is fraught with pit falls I tend to rely on old school methods and gut instinct. Never let you down yet have I SSIB .  

    To think all those multi millions spent on models and super computers when they could have just been watching the behaviour patterns of snow geese, the amount of berries on the trees and what someone's mates cousin said down the pub.?

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    10 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

    And this attitude doesn't help as well. You place doubt in Teleconnections, and then you proceed to place all your forecast in the hands of models that have low verification.

    IMG_6135.thumb.PNG.e981a4f74229f06d1fc0cec1bdc02a54.PNG

    This verification that shows GEPS, GEFS and EPS all in one verification chart at T+360. Predictive correlation values fall below 0.2 at times, for both EPS and GEFS. And we are currently in one of those lulls in verification, given the SSW and AAM factors. 

    There is higher verification in the forecasts Tele experts put out, than GFS FI, simply put. This is because one is NWP, and can't see everything amongst bias, and other factors. And the other is a comprehensive model that explains how the momentum and winds circulate around the world.

     

    That's seems compelling, but let's see equivalent anomaly correlation charts from any tele expert forecast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
    6 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

    To think all those multi millions spent on models and super computers when they could have just been watching the behaviour patterns of snow geese, the amount of berries on the trees and what someone's mates cousin said down the pub.?

    Not quite my point but love your sarcastic humor

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Some tasty charts by next Sat, obviously some not so!! Still up in the air but next week the North and hills must be in with a shout or 2 for some snow falls - especially at night although it won’t stick around !!

    DF21A183-74CF-4C14-975C-9D4060C138A1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Quite a bit more energy in the trough to our NW circa day 10/11 in this ensemble suite, quite a lot of big arctic ridges causing chaos in the vortex means the ensembles and models themselves cannot be trusted. Watch this space.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    With the pattern improving by the day, now would be just the time for @Tamara to make a post, regarding teleconnections, IMO...? As I, for one, am tempted to enter full-on ramp mode or FoRM!

    image.thumb.png.d3a07265a9a733a98df96f33b3a39d26.png

    Steady Pete!!!

    The 06z pattern is imo the most plausible yet.....but plausible is best left at that for the time being as it has had an uncanny knack of ‘being there’!.  Personally I would like to see the HP SW squeezed out a tad earlier than 15th, or at least the start of it.  

     BFTP 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Not bad, not amazing but reasonable at the end.

    image.thumb.png.1df812883c320e4d3d42678f6f7091a3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    1 minute ago, weirpig said:

    Para 288  A trend is developing.

     

    gfsnh-0-288.png

    The vortex is not a happy bunny with that high pressure right over the pole!

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    What we want to see is the spread increase indicating a pattern change is possible, this is the spread from around D10:

    tempresult_xzq3.gif

    Clear signs of the likely ongoing pattern being put under pressure from at best Atlantic Heights or at least wedges? It does not promise a change but highlights that at that point we have a possible trigger to pattern changes. 

    At D10 we would expect the GFS to be over-zealous with the Atlantic flow, so a reasonable presumption is that the most likely signal is better heights as we near T0. 

    The usual caveats as to expectations of GFS at D10, but the trend remains ongoing and the background signals back that potential up.

    Edited by IDO
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    Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
    5 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Surely much of this information is remotely accessed from sensors etc.

    I think we are a bit beyond a man with a clip board.

    Yes but plenty of data is going in manually as it comes from external observations. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I always have trouble with assessing Greenland HPs: are they part of something bigger or, like Katy Price, a purely surface phenomenon...For instance, is this one nothing more than a product of topographical enhancement??

    image.thumb.png.c5e9ab6c4d345eeabdfa699dba924f92.png

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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